Crazy About Guns

[FVZA_Colonel]

http://www.slate.com/id/2204592/pagenum/all/

Crazy About Guns
The press spooks its readers about increased gun purchases.
By Jack Shafer
Posted Thursday, Nov. 13, 2008, at 6:26 PM ET

Firearms scare almost everybody. But no demographic gets more wiggy about handguns, shotguns, and rifles than journalists. Ever since the Washington Post ("Gun Sales Thriving in Uncertain Times," Oct. 27) put the idea into circulation that the election and economic turmoil were spurring an increase in gun and ammo sales, a score of other news outlets have published their takes on the topic.

The Salt Lake Tribune got there on Nov. 6 ("Election Triggers Upsurge in Military-Like Firearms Sales"), the New York Times on Nov. 7 ("On Concerns Over Gun Control, Gun Sales Are Up"), the Associated Press ("Fears of Democrat Crackdown Lead to Gun Sales Boom") and Reuters on Nov. 8 ("Obama Win Triggers Run on Guns in Many Stores"), the Kansas City Star on Nov. 9 ("Election's Outcome Triggers Record Sales at Gun Shops"), the Anchorage Daily News on Nov. 10 ("Armed and Nervous in Alaska"), FoxNews.com ("Gun Owners Stockpiling Over Fear of Democratic Weapon Bans") and CNN.com on Nov. 11 ("Gun Sales Surge After Obama's Election"), the Chicago Tribune ("Obama Win Triggers Run on Guns") and the Globe and Mail on Nov. 12 ("Obama Win Spurs U.S. Gun Sales Boom"). And that's just a partial list.

The foundation upon which these outlets build their stories is solid: The primary measurement of gun purchases shows that sales are rising this year. Federal law requires licensed gun dealers to submit background check requests of all purchasers to the FBI's National Instant Criminal Background Check System. The Post reports that "there were 8.4 million background checks from Jan. 1 to Sept. 28, compared with 7.7 million in the same period last year," which is a 9 percent increase.

It sounds scary, but the 2008 year-to-date increase doesn't tell the whole story. The first full year of the background check system was 1999, when 8.6 million background checks were conducted. For the next four years, background checks bubbled (PDF, Page 5) under 8 million annually and didn't break above 8 million again until in 2004. In 2007, the number of applications was essentially the same as in 1999 (8,658,000 vs. 8,621,000), which means that there was no growth in the number of gun sales over almost a decade. Considered inside the context of a decade's worth of background check data and a growing population, the 9 percent year-to-date increase doesn't seem very significant. (Nota bene: These days, 1.6 percent of gun applications are denied each year, translating into no gun sale.)
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Interesting to see the press may have been leading people on about an "Obama Boom" in regards to gun sales.

[Deep13]

1. "Firearms scare almost everybody."

No they don't.

[old mark]

2. Funny thing - I was in a gun shop yesterday afternoon,

and was the only customer for the first hour or so I was there. I guess folks must have ben at work, because after about 4PM, they started to drift in, and when I left at about 5pm, there were about 10 customers.
They seemed to be buying the usual assortment of stuff, however - some handguns, some browsing shotguns and hunting rifles, a few looking at surplus military rifles (WWII era stuff). NO rabid droolers, no one with swastika or enraged elephant tattoos.

It is hunting season, after all....

I wore an Obama button on my green hunting vest, put some money down on a used 12 guage pump shotgun.
I am certain nearly half those gun buyers in recent days have been Democrats.


mark

[sl8]

3. Thanks for the link.

All of the reports I've seen about increased gun sales due to Obama's election seem to rely on anecdotal evidence. I haven't seen any reports with actual numbers.

I wonder how many of these reporters realize that gun sales go up every November and if they've taken that into account when reporting this year's increase.

NICS checks by month, since 1998:
http://www.fbi.gov/hq/cjisd/nics/nics_checks_total.htm

I'm curious as to how this November's numbers will compare.

[jmg257]

4. I don't think the Jan-Sept background checks are going to reveal the up-surge

that most likely took place after Nov 4th. Also, a "wide-spread" desire to buy will be somewhat tempered by the economy.

I know I would have considered much harder adding another 1 (or 2) - if the economy wasn't so iffy, and the same with other guys at my shop. The same time we are talking new guns, hours get cut, Christmas is coming, etc.

I would assume there are plenty of people who would make those purchases, based on the rumoured and stated opinions of Obama/Biden. Plenty of people were left out or burned in '94.

I don't think the press is leading us on at all. We will neeed Nov/Dec numbers to know for sure.