Fun facts on Obama's electoral victory. and fast forward to 2012

[PretzelWarrior]

Hello all, I am SURE you're sick of poring over the numbers and slicing/dicing this tremendous victory. But after I first started compiling the data for myself, one thing jumped out at me regarding margin of victory.

First, McCain won 6 states with 60% or more of the popular vote. Those states only represent a grand total of 31 electoral votes.

Second, Obama won 10 states (and Washington DC) with 60% or more of the popular vote. Those states and DC represent 153 electoral votes. That means with the goodwill he will no doubt enjoy as he attempts to dig us out of the hole we're in, he's only going to need 114 more electoral votes to get to 270 next term.

(For your information, the "over 60" spots are: California, Connecticut, Delaware, Illinois, Maryland, Massachusetts, New York, Rhode Island, Vermont, Hawaii, and Washington D.C.)


That is a tremendous advantage for Obama.

For states with strong leans one way or the other (from 55% to 59% popular vote) I see no major trouble spots for Obama and no major areas of likely gain from this year in that batch of states. I'd say Obama will want to focus on Nevada and New Mexico as those states are growing and in close proximity to another one he could bring into the fold if things go right--Arizona. The strong lean states for Obama total 95 electoral votes (giving him a total of 248 thus far)

(For your information, the strong Obama lean states are: Nevada, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Michigan, New Jersey, New Mexico, Oregon, Maine, Washington)

HE WOULD ONLY NEED

22

MORE just by holding these strong and very strong Obama states from 2008.

There were 16 states in middle ground territory where neither candiate got more than 54% of the popular vote. The ones Obama won are Indiana, N. Carolina, Florida, Ohio, Virginia, Colorado, Iowa, Minnesota, and New Hampshire. The ones McCain won were Arizona, S. Carolina, N. Dakota, S. Dakota, Georgia, Missouri, and Montana.

If Obama holds the state of Florida, he wins. If he holds Ohio and New Hampshire, he wins. If he holds, Minnesota, Colorado, and Iowa, he wins.

If he manages to NOT ONLY keep his hold on this year's states but is able to pull Arizona, Missouri, and one of the Dakotas...it could be a 1972 or 1984 type of landslide.

I guess after all of this, I have to ask, "Why again does he have to govern from center right?" Clearly, Democrats have a huge opportunity to advance the more popular parts of their agenda, get reelected, and go after some of the tougher challenges.

I am excited.

Also, I plan to play with all of this data in my spreadsheets as I bounce it against other items of interest such as which states are likely to gain/lose electoral votes, which states are trending more toward the demographics Obama won, etc.

[ColbertWatcher]

1. Interesting analysis!

I've dedicated 2008 to nerdly wonks, like yourself! (http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_mesg&forum=389&topic_id=4435555&mesg_id=4435555)

[PretzelWarrior]

2. THANKS! I definitely have more I want to write on this...

If we ensure verified voting in all states, if we have reasonable get out the vote efforts, if we work to reduce voter suppression, and if Obama is able to even make some significant starts toward achieving some of his ambitious goals (winding down Iraq war, getting health care reform legislation passed, getting tax breaks to middle class families by 2010) this should be a GREAT election cycle to watch for Dems.

I also plan to do quite a breakdown on senate and house races as well as makeup of state houses since how those change will determine a lot about redistricting, and that is where a lot of the talent for federal office holders comes from.

[Joe the Liberal]

3. K&R nt

[silverojo]

4. You forgot Nebraska

I know it's only 1 EV, but to win that EV in a state so red is nothing short of miraculous!

[PretzelWarrior]

6. I know. I just didn't want to muddle the picture....but you are right

I left Nebraska's Omaha district off of his column.

[Nicholas D Wolfwood]

5. As long as he does his job well, 2012 will not be an issue.

But that means we need to help him do his job. There will be many rabid neo-cons coming after him in the years ahead, and there will also be a congressional election on 2010. We need to help him keep those forces at bay while supporting Congressional Dems as they keep their majority. There's a reason he always says "Yes WE can!"

[PretzelWarrior]

7. I agree about WE, the people helping out from now til then

that is one thing I plan to focus on--how we fight the smears 24/7/52/4 (24 hours a day, 7 days a week, 52 weeks a year, 4 years of his term as president).

[NJGeek]

8. oh no please, not yet... need to settle down after Nov 4th - no more numbers :)

[PretzelWarrior]

9. ahahhaha!!! "I wasn't told there would be math"

[fujiyama]

10. A lot of the northeastern and miswestern states will lose electoral votes

overall, I think the census may be a slight net gain for red states. NY, PA, OH, MI, etc will all lose at least one or two EVs each.

But I think we'll also see a gain in VA, OR, and a few other states. NC will likely gain. I have no idea if CA will gain an EV or not.

TX will gain at least two or three. And I think SW states like NM and NV will gain. AZ will also, but I think it'll be a toss up next time.

[cooolandrew]

11. We can only expand on this years results especially for the youth vote heavily going democratic and>

will be part of the higher age demographic in 2012. Plus all the demographics Republicans have deionized. Yes, a potential for big wins next time around.