If all states used the Nebraska and Maine method of determining EC votes?

[stahbrett]

Anyone know how the electoral college numbers would look if each state allocated their EC votes based on congressional district (plus two decided based on the statewide total)?

[GreenPartyVoter]

1. I tried googling, but either they don't exist I have got the wrong keywords going. Sorry

[slick8790]

2. I think on balance it'd favor republicans.

Because take california for instance. We get 55 each time with that, but that's mainly because of the population centered in the big cities. Some inland CA can be pretty conservative. Same thing with New York City vs. upstate new york.

[pinto]

4. Good points.

[pinto]

3. Interesting idea - off the top, I assume we would get some ev's from

these red/lean red state areas. St. Louis, Atlanta, Houston, El Paso, Laredo, SA/Austin, Dallas (?),
New Orleans, Lawrence KS (?), Salt Lake...

[LiberalFighter]

6. I don't think it would be enough to offset the losses in other states.

[pinto]

7. That's my guess, too.

[abumbyanyothername]

9. I would say that generally dems would pick up votes under this scheme

All you really have to do is look at where dems won congressional seats. Then add 2 EVs for each state won by Obama.

Pretty simple to approximate, actually.

[GreenInNC]

5. just look at congress and the states won by Obama

Obama would have still won but he would only have 313 EV's

[abumbyanyothername]

10. Unless people split there ticket

and would have voted Obama but for their Republican representative.

[GreenInNC]

16. good point

I guess someone needs to go district by district and look at Obama's vote totals to get a true result.

[Perky]

22. I will cross post this here

Easier said then done, cecause the geographies are different. CDs cross county lines and may not include the entire coutry. Counties are however responsible for drawing preinct Boundaries.

It can certainly be done, the data can be gotten to, it is just that no one has the manpower or time tio do it.

But here is a clue. If you give Obama and Mcain 2 cotes for each of the states they won and assume that whatever party won the CD also won the presidential race, it actuall get a bit closer.
Obama McCain
58 44 (state level, including DC)
255 174 (Districe level, not including 4 undecided races and 2 LA eclections that are pending)
-----------
313 218

[votetastic]

8. It would be better if each candidate won

a proportion of the EC votes equivalent to their percentage of the state's popular vote. In that case, Obama still would've won.

[RedCloud]

11. Most likely it would follow the House votes...

These are large congressional districts. I can't swear if they were designed to have equal numbers in each area, but that would be the fairest way to go about it, not on mere real estate with disproportionate representation..

[Hippo_Tron]

12. Gerrymandering could rig presidential elections as well as house elections

[liberalpragmatist]

13. It would be more distorted -- Nixon would have won in 1960

... and Bush would have won in 2000 even without winning Florida (the Florida battle would only have concerned the two at-large electoral votes for the state).

Republicans are more dispersed, whereas Democrats are somehow more concentrated in urban districts. The pattern throughout the country is that Democrats thoroughly dominate in cities, suburbs are split, and the rural areas are Republican but less Republican than the cities are Democratic. That evens out to significantly more congressional districts that lean R than D.

For example, from 2007-2009 (the current Congress), there were over 60 seats in the House that were represented by a Democrat but voted for Bush. There were only 10 or so House seats that were represented by a Republican but voted for Kerry.

[Donald Ian Rankin]

14. Compare popular vote with EV counts over the last elections:

Obama/McCain
PV: 53/46
EC: 68/32

Kerry/Bush
PV: 51/48
EC: 53/47

Gore/Kerry
PV: 48/48
EC: 50/50

Clinton/Dole
PV: 49/40
EC: 70/30

Clinton/Bush (N.B. Perot...)
PV: 43/38
EC: 69/31

The electoral college always splits more widely than the popular vote, but I'm not sure one can deduce anything about which party that favours. So my compiling all this was less use that I'd hoped... Oh well.

[ddeclue]

15. Obama would have lost Florida for certain.

The state is terribly Gerrymandered and if electoral college matched Congressional Districts he would have only gotten what about 5 or 6 votes?

NOT a good idea!

Doug D.

[RollWithIt]

17. It creates all kinds of problems with redistricting...

Bad idea.

[tritsofme]

18. It would probably closely mirror the result of the congressional elections.

Couldn't be that far off?

[phrigndumass]

19. Roughly 314 to 224

One electoral vote for each congressional district, plus two electoral votes for each state.

Without going through the motion of counting them all, we won 256 congressional seats (so far) this year. We also won 29 states (58 electoral votes).

However, Obama won in some congressional districts where we did not pick up a seat, and he lost in some congressional districts where we did pick up a seat, so this is just a rough estimate.

256 + 58 = 314

:dunce:

[Ediacara]

20. This is based on 2004 data

When there's no readily available congressional district data, I'm estimating based on county data.

Alabama
Kerry 1 Bush 8

Alaska
Kerry 0 Bush 3

Arizona
Kerry 2 Bush 8

Arkansas
Kerry 0 Bush 6

California
Kerry 32 Bush 23

Colorado
Kerry 3 Bush 6

Connecticut
Kerry 7 Bush 0

Delaware
Kerry 3 Bush 0

DC
Kerry 3 Bush 0

Florida
Kerry 12ish Bush 15ish

Georgia
Kerry 4 Bush 11

Hawaii
Kerry 4 Bush 0

Idaho
Kerry 0 Bush 4

Illinois
Kerry 12ish Bush 9ish

Indiana
Kerry 2 Bush 9

Iowa
Kerry 2 Bush 5

Kansas
Kerry 0 Bush 6

Kentucky
Kerry 2 Bush 6

Louisiana
Kerry 1 Bush 8

Maine
Kerry 4 Bush 0

Maryland
Kerry 8 Bush 2

Massachusetts
Kerry 12 Bush 0

Michigan
Kerry 7 Bush 10

Minnesota
Kerry 5 Bush 4

Mississippi
Kerry 1 Bush 5

Missouri
Kerry 3 Bush 8

Montana
Kerry 0 Bush 3

Nebraska
Kerry 0 Bush 5

Nevada
Kerry 1 Bush 4

New Hampshire
Kerry 3 Bush 1

New Jersey
Kerry 11ish Bush 4ish

New Mexico
Kerry 2 Bush 3

New York
Kerry 23 Bush 8

North Carolina
Kerry 4 Bush 11

North Dakota
Kerry 0 Bush 3

Ohio
Kerry 6 Bush 14

Oklahoma
Kerry 0 Bush 7

Oregon
Kerry 5 Bush 2

Pennsylvania
Kerry 12ish Bush 9ish

Rhode Island
Kerry 4 Bush 0

South Carolina
Kerry 1 Bush 7

South Dakota
Kerry 0 Bush 3

Tennessee
Kerry 2 Bush 9

Texas
Kerry 10ish Bush 24ish

Utah
Kerry 0 Bush 5

Vermont
Kerry 3 Bush 0

Virginia
Kerry 2 Bush 11

Washington
Kerry 8 Bush 3

West Virginia
Kerry 0 Bush 5

Wisconsin
Kerry 6 Bush 4

Wyoming
Kerry 0 Bush 3

Total
Kerry 233ish Bush 305ish

Which is close to the official vote tally, but is exaggerated due to gerrymandering in some states. This can be further exaggerated by more gerrymandering. I don't like this idea, it makes the electoral college even worse.

[Perky]

21. You would have to roll up precinct level voting to the CD level

Easier said then done, cecause the geographies are different. CDs cross county lines and may not include the entire coutry. Counties are however responsible for drawing preinct Boundaries.

It can certainly be done, the data can be gotten to, it is just that no one has the manpower or time tio do it.

But here is a clue. If you give Obama and Mcain 2 cotes for each of the states they won and assume that whatever party won the CD also won the presidential race, it actuall get a bit closer.
Obama McCain
58 44 (state level, including DC)
255 174 (Districe level, not including 4 undecided races and 2 LA eclections that are pending)
-----------
313 218

[palintology]

23. 2008 EXPANDED ELECTORAL MAP