Slate's hour-by-hour guide to reading the returns.

[jefferson_dem]

Slate's Election Day Tipsheet
Slate's hour-by-hour guide to reading the returns.
By John Dickerson
Posted Monday, Nov. 3, 2008, at 7:52 PM ET

Barack Obama's aides say that he doesn't like to watch the election returns on television because he doesn't want to hear all the cable-TV chatter. (On the stump, he's been calling on politicians to stop going on cable news to reduce the bickering and acrimony in Washington.) But not everyone has Obama's equilibrium. So here's a partial guide of things to look for on Election Day. (Note: All times are ET.)

Sunrise to 6 p.m.: Look for reports of voter turnout. Throughout the day, watch the crowds in any of the battleground states. Analysts generally agree that a big turnout helps Obama. For McCain, who has to make up deficits in early voting, watch to see if turnout equals or exceeds the turnout President Bush got in 2004. To win, McCain needs more than just his base, of course—but he really needs his base. Some places to keep an eye on:

* In Florida, there is the I-4 corridor from Tampa to Daytona Beach as well as the counties in the panhandle.
* In Ohio, look to turnout in Franklin County (home to Columbus) for McCain. For Obama, look at Hamilton County (home to Cincinnati) and other big, urban counties such as Cuyahoga (Cleveland), where new registrations and black voters should boost Obama's numbers. Watch northwestern Ohio, a solidly Republican corner of the state where Obama led in two October polls.
* In Pennsylvania, look to Allegheny, Butler, and Westmorland counties (Pittsburgh and its suburbs) for McCain, and the inner suburbs around Philadelphia (Montgomery, Delaware, Bucks, and Chester) for Obama.

6 p.m.: Polls start to close in Indiana. This traditionally Republican state is at the outer edge of Obama's raids into McCain's territory. If Obama wins, it might very well mean he's won the whole election, because it will ratify the Obama strategy that has been employed throughout the battleground states. If McCain wins, we'll get a feeling for the contours of his defensive line. A McCain win in Indiana may mean that states like Missouri and North Carolina might not flip into the Obama category.

The polls in Kentucky also close at 6. For those watching to see whether Democrats will have 60 votes in the Senate, a win by Democrat Bruce Lunsford against Mitch McConnell will suggest it's possible.

7 p.m.: Polls close in Virginia and Florida. If Obama wins Florida's 27 electoral votes, he'll have a big night. Watch the I-4 corridor, the area between Tampa and Orlando where both campaigns have been working hard in Hillsborough, Pinellas, Polk, and Osceola counties. In early voting in the state, Democrats have an edge of more than 300,000 votes. Upon seeing this, some Republicans may head into the root cellar. That's a big margin for McCain to make up on Election Day. His team has to hope that the early voting came from reliable Democratic base voters, which would mean they've just gotten their usual Election Day support—just earlier than usual. Obama aides say lots of their early vote comes from new and sporadic voters. If they're right—and evidence suggests they may be—then Florida could go blue.

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