Evangelicals and Rural Americans Are Breaking Big for Obama

[Liberal_in_LA]

http://www.alternet.org/election08/105261/evangelicals_and_rural_americans_are_breaking_big_for_obama/

Evangelicals and Rural Americans Are Breaking Big for Obama

By Robert S. Eshelman, Tomdispatch.com. Posted October 30, 2008.

A mass defection from the Republican Party may be underway in counties that were once GOP strongholds. Call it the reverse Bradley Effect.

There's clearly a new political landscape forming in the U.S. That's what the polls are telling us. It's not just that the first major-party black candidate for President is leading by significant margins in the national polls; it's not just that North Dakota, a state George W. Bush won in 2004 by 64%, is believed to be "in play"; it's not just that Virginia which, like North Dakota, was last carried by a Democrat in the sweep year of 1964, is, according to the most recent Washington Post poll and others, in the Obama camp by at least 8 points, or that he's leading in a remarkable number of states Bush took in 2004, or even that Democratic Senate and House candidates are making a run of it in previously ridiculous places.

Consider, instead, three recent polls in the context of the Bush years. Obama and McCain are now in a "statistical dead heat" among born-again evangelicals, those Rovian foot soldiers of two successful Bush elections, according to a recent survey; and the same seems to be true in Sarah Palin's "real America," those rural and small town areas she's praised to the skies. According to a poll commissioned by the Center for Rural Strategies, in those areas which Bush won in 2004 by 53%-41%, Obama now holds a statistically insignificant one point lead. To complete this little trifecta, Gallup has just released a poll showing that Jews are now likely to vote for Obama by a more than 3 to 1 majority (74% to 22%).

If present projections come close to holding, this could prove to be a rare reconfiguring or turning-point election -- as Wall Street expert Steve Fraser first suggested might be possible at TomDispatch way back in February 2007. If so, the Republican Party, only recently besotted by dreams of a generational Pax Republicana, might find itself driven back into the deep South and deep West for who knows how long, "an extremist rump, reduced to a few stronghold states and obsessed with causes that seem not to matter to the general public."

[GrizzlyMan]

1. I'm sorry but I find this hard to believe

If Obama were in a statistical dead heat among white fundies, Miss., Alabama, La., Kentucky, Tenn. and Oklahoma would be in play. They aren't.

[FrenchieCat]

2. Evangelicals and Fundies are not the same thing necessarily....

I'm a Born Again Christian, but I'm not a Fundamentalist.

[GrizzlyMan]

3. Based on my experience

Black evangelicals are different politically than white evangelicals. I live in a deep red state that some consider the buckle of the bible belt. Regardless, we have an extremely heavy evangelical presence here. Now I could go into an evangelical church in the inner city and I would find quite a few Obama voters.

Conversely, I could go to a suburban mega church and take a straw poll and it wouldn't surprise me at all if Obama polled in the low teens or high single digits.

It's been my experience that white evangelicals or fundamentalists in this part of the country wouldn't vote for Obama under any circumstances even if it benefited their interests.

Another thing I've noticed is that fundies from the central plain states are much more strident than those found on the coasts.

[FrenchieCat]

4. Well, there must be something to that article posted in the op.....cause,

Evangelicals abandon McCain, Obama backers target Christian airwaves

According to the Christian pollsters at the Barna Group, Sen. John McCain has failed to hold on to a critical part of the Republican base: born-again evangelical Christians. Even with Gov. Sarah Palin on the ticket, support from the key constituency has floundered compared to Bush’s numbers in 2004.

Meanwhile, independent groups are hitting the airwaves on Christian talk radio with ads featuring Sen. Barack Obama talking about his faith and prominent “pro-lifers” explaining — and supporting — Obama’s position on abortion.

The Barna poll found that McCain garnered the support of 63 percent of evangelical voters compared to 85 percent that Bush received in 2004. Sen. Barack Obama has slowly built his support among the socially conservative group from 9 percent in May to 23 percent in October.
http://minnesotaindependent.com/14802/evangelical-christian-obama-mccain-polls

[GrizzlyMan]

5. Well all I'm saying is it doesn't add up

If he were running even with evangelicals Obama would be within striking distance in a whole bunch of states where he's not. The facts on the ground don't seem to back up the article's hypothesis.

But clearly Obama has made inroads.

[99th_Monkey]

6. Your last sentence says it all. Obama's outreach to evangelicals has really paid off.

and will continue to pay good dividends into the future IMHO.

I'm familiar with this territory, having been a self-identifying "evangelical" for almost two decades
of my short life. I no longer identify that way, but know of folks like Jim Wallis and John Perkins
who've been doing this "outreach" among their peers for decades, and are just now beginning seeing the
fruits of their labors.

In fact, I think Wallis has been consulting with the Obama campaign re: evangelical outreach.

[leftofcool]

7. I really doubt this