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bmartello Donating Member (144 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Oct-29-08 11:47 PM
Original message
538 question
forgive me if the question seems dumb, but I'd like to know why if the polls aren't changing much, why have we gone down 6 electoral votes on 538 in the last day?

thanks in advance
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FreeState Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Oct-29-08 11:48 PM
Response to Original message
1. Indiana went from very light blue to very light red n/t
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Bicoastal Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Oct-29-08 11:50 PM
Response to Reply #1
2. We're not going to win Indiana...
...not even 1992 Bill Clinton won Indiana.
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Yukari Yakumo Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Oct-30-08 12:42 AM
Response to Reply #2
5. What do you expect...
...from a state that thought Quayle would make a good Senator?
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Redbear Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Oct-29-08 11:52 PM
Response to Original message
3. With the "tossup" states it doesnt take much movement to change
EV numbers.
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BlooInBloo Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Oct-29-08 11:56 PM
Response to Original message
4. Because the number of EVs is determined as much by vote *distribution*...
Edited on Wed Oct-29-08 11:57 PM by BlooInBloo
as it it by the total number of votes.

EDIT: The next lesson will be: "Statistical Noise, and why it doesn't matter".
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