CNN.com: Obama's ahead, polls say, but will the lead last? (Answer: probably)

[Bicoastal]

http://www.cnn.com/2008/POLITICS/10/28/polling.lookback/index.html

(CNN) -- With a week to go before Election Day, most recent national polls show Democratic presidential nominee Barack Obama with an advantage. But how much are they to be believed?

The most recent national CNN poll of polls showed Obama with an 8-point lead over Republican presidential nominee John McCain, 51 percent to 43 percent. The polls were conducted October 21 through October 26.

Most other national polls show Obama with a lead ranging between 5 points and double digits.

A look at CNN polling during the same period before Election Day in 2000 and 2004 suggests that political observers and campaign supporters ought to be cautious in declaring the race over because of current polling numbers.

When a presidential race has a non-incumbent in the lead, like this year, the poll numbers tend to tighten as Election Day gets closer, CNN senior researcher Alan Silverleib said "Any time it looks like they are on the verge of voting somebody new into office, there is buyer's remorse," he said. "Based on that, and the fact that the country has been so polarized in recent elections, there's pretty good reason to think that the polls might tighten up a little bit."

--SNIP--

There have been a few examples of such "buyer's remorse" in recent history, Silverleib said.

"We saw that with Clinton in 1992, when the polls suddenly tightened up during the last week," he said. "It was almost like people saying, 'Do we really want this guy?' "

They did. Clinton soundly defeated President George H. W. Bush, 43 percent to 37 percent.

[dubyaD40web]

1. History repeats itself

[RUMMYisFROSTED]

2. No. No. No.

People are flocking to the polls to vote for McSame!

It's just absurd.

[dennis4868]

3. the article is right about the tightening of the polls...

let's hope the outcome is like in 1992...GOBAMA!

[Bicoastal]

4. Exactly why buying the 30 minute airtime was a good idea...

...they probably saw this coming.

[Proud Liberal Dem]

5. "Buyers remorse"?

Don't you have to BUY something, first? Of course, since we can't recall our Presidents nor declare a vote of "no confidence" in them and have them immediately removed from office, impeachment is pretty much the only mechanism we have to remove our President AFTER they are in office but that can only be used in the event of the President committing "high crimes and misdemeanors", however since Bush has set the bar pretty high in terms of what Presidents (and Vice Presidents) can apparently get away with I'm not sure anybody will be able to seriously try to impeach a President ever again (not to say that the Repubs won't try with the next Democratic President of course).

What they seem to be talking about is more "Devil you know than the one you don't know" but I don't think most people will even be looking at it like THAT either. We may "know" McCain more than Obama but if some people don't know enough about Obama to decide whether or not to vote for him by now they are completely LOST. We also don't know much of anything about Palin (mostly because of being largely concealed from the media) but everything we DO know should be enough for us to know that she shouldn't be ANYWHERE NEAR the oval office, let alone a "heartbeat".