So why is not anyone talking about Zogby tonight?

[thewiseguy]

You guys do usually go nuts about his polls at right about this time.

[MadBadger]

1. Drudge doesnt have a preview...which makes people think he numbers are good tonight.

[thewiseguy]

4. The 49-44.7 number is from last night?

[Jersey Devil]

5. Zogby doesn't post until after 1 am so yes, you are looking at

yesterday's numbers.

[thewiseguy]

6. Thank you.

[Zynx]

2. It's probably because Drudge saw the numbers and was like "Meh."

[Jersey Devil]

3. What is there to talk about?

Speculation?

[Florida33156]

7. Zogby is a tracking poll...

So, like most tracking polls, it has 3 days of vote tallies in there. What this means is that every day, the 3 day old poll is replaced by the previous day's poll. So, the number currently up there is from Saturday, Sunday and Monday. If you notice, the poll released Saturday morning (from Wed, Thurs, and Friday of last week)had Obama up by 10. That dropped to 5 because Obama had an extremely good day of polling (a week ago on Wed) replaced with a terrible day of polling (Saturday). After that drop, the tracking poll flatlined, essentially, meaning that Sunday's number was pretty close to last Thursday's number (since it replaced it without greatly effecting the 3-day average), and the same happened again yesterday (with Monday's number replacing Friday's). Well, that 3-day average still contained Obama's bad Saturday number.

So, what did Drudge do? Sunday morning when the Saturday number came up he "reported" the SHOCK POLL of Obama only being +3 on the Saturday number. He then reported the SHOCK POLL Monday and this morning, because the overall 3-day number was still incorporating that Saturday number (notice how he stopped posting single day numbers and instead was using the 3-day average again). Well, when the latest Zogby poll comes out, that Saturday outlier is going to be cycled out of the average, so the number overall will look better for Obama (unless Obama's daily number for today was equally bad to Saturday's). My guess is that today's number for Obama was inline with the previous 2 days, and therefore Drudge has decided not to report that poll anymore.

[thesubstanceofdreams]

10. Welcome to DU!!!

Your analysis is spot on, except that Saturday's "horrible" result was actually Obama +3. Obama has been ahead in all polls and as far as we know in every single day in all tracking polls for over a month. Even though there are huge methodological variations and statistical noise, Obama is always ahead. That is what counts.

[HughMoran]

11. Welcome to DU!!

:hi:

And thanks for spending the time to explain that for us!

It makes so much sense when you spell it out like that (sometimes we get emotional and stop using logic).

[Cali_Democrat]

14. ding ding ding

We have a winner.

Welcome to DU. :hi:

[TexasObserver]

8. because we've written Zogby off as hopelessly BAD

[aaaaaa5a]

9. It's funny... no early release from Rasmussen either.

Drudge must not like the results!

[woolldog]

12. Rasmussen's PA poll was supposed to be horrible!

He was pumping it up on fox this morning apparently. Then when it came out, it wasn't so shocking. High single digit Obama lead.

[Cali_Democrat]

15. Drudge is still pumping-up the traditional Gallup tacking poll that shows Obama up 2

Funny though, he doesn't mention the daily tracking and the expanded polls which show Obama up 7.

Go figure. :eyes:

[Drunken Irishman]

13. Wait for an hour. If the numbers are great, you'll see a million threads.

[HughMoran]

16. Nah, more like a vigintillion

Do I have to stay up now and possibly be dissapointed before I go to bed?

:freak: :freak: :freak: :freak: :freak: :freak: :freak: :freak: :freak: :freak: :freak: :freak: :freak: :freak: :freak: :freak: :freak: :freak: :freak: :freak: :freak: :freak: :freak: :freak: :freak: :freak: :freak: :freak: :freak: :freak: :freak: :freak: :freak: :freak: :freak: :freak: :freak: :freak: :freak: :freak: :freak: :freak: :freak: :freak: :freak: :freak: :freak: :freak: :freak: :freak: :freak: :freak: :freak: :freak: :freak: :freak: :freak: :freak: :freak: :freak: :freak: :freak: :freak: :freak:

[Drunken Irishman]

17. 15 more minutes!

[HughMoran]

18. Bah, I'll look for a post

If it's not there by 1:05, I'll know it's bad news :(

[Patsy Stone]

19. Not bad news, no news. O: 49.1 - M: 44.4

10/29/08 - Obama up by 0.1, McCain down by 0.2

http://www.zogby.com/news/ReadNews.dbm?ID=1617

[HughMoran]

20. Rounds to 5% now

That'll do.

[Patsy Stone]

21. Right you are.

:thumbsup: