Ipsos-McClatchy Poll: McCain gains on Obama, now trails by 6 (was down 9 last week).

[Drunken Irishman]

http://www.sanluisobispo.com/news/politics/story/511080.html

Obama leads 48-42. Last week, Obama led 48-39.

[MadBadger]

1. Obama lost no support...McCain needs to take support from Obama, and he isnt

[Drunken Irishman]

2. No he isn't, but undecides are moving to McCain in nearly every poll.

And doing so in large numbers.

With 10% undecideds, that could still change the dynamics of the race if McCain wins 85% (like Bush did in 2004).

[MadBadger]

4. 8% is undecided....Barr and Nader get 1 percent each

[Drunken Irishman]

8. Ok.

But still, if McCain wins 85% of the undecided vote, this race is tied.

Obama needs to figure out a way to have 30% undecideds break his way. He can't lose them like Kerry in 2004, or it will change a lot of close states.

[MadBadger]

Pew shows something different, so who should I believe?

I think ABC/WAPO as this thing pegged right now

[Drunken Irishman]

12. Don't believe any of them.

Average the polls out.

Which is what I think will show Obama's "real" lead. I think he's around 6-7 points nationally.

[MadBadger]

19. Thats why I think ABC/WAPO is going to nail it

[Zynx]

He has a higher favorability rating. That always means undecideds break your way.

Also, Obama is above 50 in nearly every poll. He wins. It's as simple as that. Calm your ass down or I will bitch slap you.

[Drunken Irishman]

13. I never said he would lose.

I think he'll win, I just don't want a close race.

If this thing is decided by a point or two, it's going to piss me off.

[Zynx]

18. It won't be close. Obama wins by at least 5, and I think 8.

[Drunken Irishman]

24. I hope.

I thought 7-8 last week, I still believe 7 is possible.

[Zynx]

28. I refuse to change macro-forecasts on slight changes in polls.

These polls still show about what I have expected.

[Drunken Irishman]

31. We'll see.

Typically the polls bounce around, but even out after a period of time. If Obama's lead continues to slip as the week goes on, we could have a problem. I don't expect that to be the case, but you never know.

I'd love to see the NBC/Wall Street Journal poll, along with the CBS News poll and Newsweek.

[Thrill]

20. You can make the case that Repukes are just going to McCain. 6-8 points is a huge margin

to win a Presidential Election by. Its just evening out right now.

[Drunken Irishman]

26. Hey, if Obama wins this thing by 6 points, I'll call it what it is: A blowout.

However, I wasn't addressing the poll's margin, rather the undecided voters. They make up 8% of this poll and if they break in numbers like they did in 2004, this race becomes a statistical tie.

The question is, will they? Or can Obama pull in more undecided voters than Kerry did in 2004.

[Zynx]

6. Is it just me or does your mood and analysis vary wildly with any move in the polls?

[Drunken Irishman]

10. It's just you.

I post every poll I find, whether it's positive or not.

I'm optimistic Obama is going to do well, but admit that it appears McCain is gaining on him. That doesn't mean I think he'll lose, but it does mean this race will most likely get a bit more closer.

Obviously a six point lead is nice, but I remember 2004 and how all the undecided voters broke Bush's way (nearly all). That's always been my major concern and prior to today, Obama's lead was undecided proof -- meaning, no matter what the voters did, it wasn't going to change the outcome. However, the closer the race gets and the larger number of undecideds, the bigger problem it is for Obama.

[Zynx]

The polls reflected exactly what happened in 2004. If they do that this time we're in good shape.

And, actually you do vary from wildly optimistic to extremely mind-numbingly pessimistic posts. If the polls start moving definitively in Obama's direction again I will shit on your chest.

[Drunken Irishman]

23. I'm still very optimistic.

I've never said Obama will lose. Ever. Yes, I'm more nervous today than I was a week ago, but that's because last week Obama was up 8+ in nearly every poll. Now his numbers have slipped. It could be noise, it could be anything, but it does make me a little nervous. Do I think he'll lose? No, but I don't want a close contest.

Of course, the 2004 polls were tight and we expected a very tight race. However, many here felt Kerry would win because the undecideds would break his way. He lost because the undecideds went with Bush. You're right, though, if Obama stays above 50%, undecided voters won't matter. However, in this poll, he's above 50%.

[Zynx]

25. I see a pretty consistent 5-7 point lead in the tracking polls. Snap-shot polls

seem to be giving him more. Pew is a good example of that along with Newsweek, CBS, and NBC.

[Drunken Irishman]

27. I agree with that.

I'm not worried about victory. I think Obama will win. My concern is with how big he wins.

I want this to be over early. I don't want it to come down to a state like Colorado. I want the election to be in the bag by the time Colorado rolls around.

[CreekDog]

15. which is why they are going on tv for 30 minutes tomorrow

you think they hadn't thought of this? i'm just pointing that out.

[Zynx]

3. Okay.

Big fucking whoop.

[sarahdemva]

5. why post depressing news??

i just dont get it

[FrenchieCat]

7. It's Joe the Plumber.

The undecideds don't know what Joe the Plumber stands for, but they like his name.

[Zynx]

9. My best guess is that Obama still wins by 8. Most of this "move" has been statistical noise.

[FrenchieCat]

11. I don't even look at the national polls.

And seems like neither does the Obama campaign.

[sarahdemva]

14. obama should find people he can showcase

i just hate coming here and seeing more and more negative news.

[MadBadger]

32. There is ntohing wrong with posting polls like this

its the other commentary i dont quite understannd

[FreeState]

16. This is a very GOP paper and poll n/t

[azmouse]

17. We should all just ignore the polls.

What will happen, will happen.

And what will happen will be an Obama win.

[Smuckies]

21. Don't like that.

Oh well, I guess this is where the race closes up. :(

[MadBadger]

29. Oh NOES!1!!

How is Obama going to win Tennessee now?!?!

[Smuckies]

33. Obama has a chance in TN if they don't steal it, if they do..

Obama will get blown out :(

We must hope things are done truthfully.

[jenmito]

22. Obama knows what he's doing. Just wait 'til after his 30-min. ad tomorrow night and

all the coverage it'll get. I'm sure it will set the record straight for all the people who are believing McPalin's lies.

[SDJay]

30. It will also force the idiots McCrap and Churchy Spice

to play defense for the final few days of the campaign. Even Hot Karl Rove has said, 'if you're explaining, you're losing.' Tomorrow night will be the final ass-whipping that we all know is coming, and the morons on the other side will be scrambling for quite awhile to recover. It's the close-out move that Obama needs, and it's coming.

[jenmito]

34. Good point...

and :rofl: at "Churchy Spice." :D

[Schulzz]

35. If you are looking at the polling average, Obama did not lose support.

In fact, if he stays at 50.6% at the RCP tonight, it will be his best day ever. McCain just picked up some undecideds.

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2008/president/us/general_election_mccain_vs_obama-225.html

Edit: Ok, 50.5% now with Ipsos. Doesn't make a real difference.