Why Zogby is crap: Obama has a 50-36 lead among Independents and is up only 5.

[Zynx]

That's B.S.

"The poll, a three–day rolling average survey of likely voters nationwide, shows that McCain has continued to gain ground among independent voters, though Obama still leads by a 50% to 36% margin, the telephone tracking survey shows. "

[PBS Poll-435]

1. Exactly!

What electorate mix is zOMGby using?

45 - R
25 - I
20 - D


?

:eyes:

[sandnsea]

12. Are those the internals?

I was wondering if anybody had found them. Wanted to see how he got those numbers.

[PBS Poll-435]

15. I have no clue

But it is the only model that makes his numbers plausible.

[thewiseguy]

2. Zogby is a morAn

I have not paid attention to his polls after the primaries were over. He is a shitty pollster.

[EastTennesseeDem]

3. Seriously

If Barack wins over independents by that landslide, election night will be choice comedy.

[JI7]

4. i think he does these things to get attention

if his poll is different from others it will be talked about.

[Smuckies]

5. True.

Good theory, I haven't thought of that. You're right.

[book_worm]

6. He claims in just today's polling Obama is up by only 3--49-46

[Zynx]

7. I cited his Indie number for the three days.

He has a 5-point three day lead with a 15 point lead among Indies.

[book_worm]

8. And in yesterday's poll he had McCain leading among Jews!

All other polls I've seen has Obama leading big with Jewish voters.

[quakerboy]

9. Math is our friend

If you assume 32% R, 85/15 for McCain, 33% D 85/15 for Obama, and 33% I, 50/36 for Obama, you get 49/44 for Obama. A 5 point lead. Not that wacky of a result, if you chose to sample conservatively.

Course, if you up the D's to 40, Drop the R/I to 30/30, then Obama ends up 53/42, for an 11 point lead.

Much as I like seeing the really positive Polls lately, I would rather have a small lead when I am underestimated, than a large lead that is potentially overestimated.

[Zynx]

14. I know math quite well. I also know demographics. This is crap.

[bluestateguy]

10. He's using 2004 party ID numbers

In 2004, party ID was even between D, R and I.

Well, it's not 2004 anymore. Democrats have anywhere from a 7-10 point party ID advantage now.

Even Ras has a +7 Democratic Party ID.

Zogby is still living in 2004.

[TwilightGardener]

11. I guess I'm the only one here satisfied that he's up by 5--I think that's pretty good.

[RagAss]

13. Zogby just makes shit up - IMHO