Your guess as to a state Obama wins that nobody expects...

[S_E_Fudd]

Mine...

Arkansas (despite the Kos poll from today)...or Texas which I think might be closer than people expect

[butterfly77]

1. Texas.

[wiseoldman]

32. Montana - Ron Paul is huge and ........

in the last three days I have received 6 awesome Obama mailers... nothing from McStupid.

[texasleo]

50. Black prez + Mexican Senator = huge turnout against both

sadly.

[BklynChick]

2. S. Carolina

[peace frog]

21. SC would be my first choice, too

but it won't happen even in an election year of year of change.

[stuntcat]

52. I WISH

:headbang: my least favorite Retardican relative lives there.

[Versailles]

65. Sigh...I wish

I live in SC, not likely. There are too many whack jobs down here. It is an ugly place to be a liberal.

[Tribetime]

it will never happen but Alaska

[La Lioness Priyanka]

3. NY

i kid.

[Bubbha Jo]

4. I'd love to see Arkansas blue too! n/t

[BOSSHOG]

8. Me too Bubbha Jo

Fayettevillian and UA grad here. Love to see Arkansas go to Obama. I live in Mississippi and if some of the local redneck mccain supporters gave me some of their homegrown meth I might say MS would go O but then you all would think I'm on drugs.

For ole times sake - GO HOGS!!

[Bubbha Jo]

48. Hey MS is only 50% McC while we're 51%

You have a strong chance of bluing out! Let's hope we both do.

Grew up in Rogers.

[Bicoastal]

5. I think Obama will win New Pennsylhomatucky

No one'll expect it because it doesn't exist...yet.

[PBS Poll-435]

6. MS or AR

:shrug:

[proud2BlibKansan]

7. Kansas

Gotta pull for my home state. :)

[jkshaw]

10. Utah?

That would rank up there with the Second Coming.

[LonePirate]

17. I, too, want him to win KS since it's my home state but ...

Unless Obama wins huge majorities in Johnson, Wyandotte, Douglas and Shawnee counties, there is no way he will win the state. Sedgwick County and Wichita (my home) are filled with uneducated die-hard McSame supporters. Obama will stay within 10 points; but he won't win this state.

Louisiana or Mississippi are far more likely to produce a surprise win for Obama on Election Day.

[proud2BlibKansan]

20. He's undoubtedly got Wyandotte County

Is Wichita really that red?

[LonePirate]

38. Yes, Wichita is really that red.

We may have a Democratic mayor; but that is due to an intense hatred within his own party for the former Rethug mayor who was kicked out of office. The city and county comprise about 20% of the state population and at least 40% of the state's registered rethugs - almost all of whom cannot be reasoned with whatsoever. They believe in wars and the rapture and there is no way they will support Obama. The Palin pick only solidified their votes so I will be very surprised if our state turns blue. If it is does, it will be almost entirely because of the northeast section of the state.

[Lancer]

9. GA

[Mayberry Machiavelli]

11. Georgia will be the stealth N Carolina.

[Fovea]

12. Kansas

A red state with a blue Gov. that is hurting and has no love for McSame.

[soccermomforobama]

13. Texas

[Desertrose]

14. I'd love to see AZ go BLUE!

I am doing my part. :)

[Frustratedlady]

15. Texas. I want to see Texas rub GW's nose in it one more time.

It won't happen, but it would sure give me a smile if it did.

[PufPuf23]

16. I'm rooting for Alaska and AZ nt

[Blue_In_AK]

25. I'm rooting for Alaska, too,

but it's not likely. Obama is down by 11 according to the latest poll, but while McCain's number has remained fairly static over the past couple of months, Obama has gained 7 points. There are still 5% undecided. I'm hoping that Sarah will do something so incredibly stupid over the next 10 days that even some of her Republican supporters here will change their minds. Before McCain picked her, Obama was polling very well here as McCain was Alaska Republicans' least favorite nominee in February.

[jpgray]

18. MT. I would love so much for it to happen.

[Wetzelbill]

49. you know it, jpgray

I could. :)

[Vektor]

19. Self - delete...

Editing for forgetfulness.:blush:

[AllieB]

22. I thought the abortion issue was in South Dakota, not North Dakota.

[Vektor]

39. Ooops!

Deleting!

:-)

[TwilightZone]

24. That was South Dakota.

Unless ND had a similar bill that I didn't hear about.

SD is voting on another version of the same bill that failed before, by the way. This one is nearly as restrictive.

[kevin881]

23. Georgia. No doubt, watch... And Saxby is toast as well... -nt

[TroglodyteScholar]

41. I'll drink to that.........

www.martinforsenate.com

[anneboleyn]

26. INDIANA --- though the polls have recently showed Obama with a lead, but seriously -- not since 1964

has the Hoosier state gone for a democrat.

[mourningdove92]

27. Oh man, can you just imagine what would happen if

he took Texas? That would be beyond awesome.

[TACstrat]

28. Alaska

[chiefofclarinet]

29. Nebraska, and ALL of it

I can reasonably see at least 2 of the 5 EV's going to Obama. But I would love to see all 5.

[Secret_Society]

30. Arizona

[indie_voter]

33. Boy would that make my evening!!! n/t

[Snotcicles]

31. Oklahoma would make my F*cking day. Just pointing out the absurd. nt

[ashling]

34. Texas

[abumbyanyothername]

35. TX and AZ

together with GA, WV, MT and ND.

Plus Omaha.

446.

[gemlake]

36. LA

[amb123]

37. Georgia

I think Bob Barr (Libertarian from GA) will take away just enough votes from dissatisfied GOP'ers to give Obama the victory by 1-2 percentage points.

[Tatiana]

40. Arizona? n/t

[pennylayne]

43. Texas

Oklahoma, Kansas, Nebraska..right up the middle of the country..

maybe that would shut the rednecks up at work.

[blogslut]

42. Texas

Because if Obama takes Texas, he wins. Period.

[progressive_realist]

44. South Dakota

I would have said IN, GA, VA, NC, MT, or ND, none of which were expected to be in play a year ago, but they are all battleground states now. WV also wouldn't be too much of a surprise now, despite all the primary talk about how they wouldn't vote for a black man...

Beyond that, we're looking at some deep red states. Thanks to phrigndumass, I was able to look at the new voter registration numbers this morning. I figure surprises are most likely in the states that have seen large increases, since pollsters may not be modeling those correctly.

AZ and MS would seem to be likely picks, but looking at the voter registration numbers for those two states, there hasn't been much increase, so the polling there is probably pretty reliable. Unfortunately, I don't think we can win either of those at this point.

That leaves AR(+18% registered voters vs. 2004), TX(+19%), and SD(+31%) as states that might have numbers on 11/4 that exceed the pollsters predictions by a large margin. In theory, KY(+22%), UT(+24%), TN(+32%) and AK(+45%) have even more potential for surprises, but I just can't imagine those numbers will break our way in any of them.

Registration totals:
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=132x7599901

[Dems to Win]

45. Alaska! Go Mudflatters. Turn Alaska Blue. It will be a superb election night bonus.

[Orsino]

46. There aren't many of them left that no one could expect him to win. n/t

[Wetzelbill]

47. Montana

Popular Dems Max Baucus and Brian Schweitzer are on the ballot. The college town and liberal region Missoula is galvanized for Obama. Indian reservations are galvanized like never before for Obama. And Ron Paul is on the ticket.

You watch, it very well could happen.

[Blondiegrrl]

51. Georgia. n/t

[FloridaGrl]

53. Arizona

[Okie4Obama]

54. Oklahoma...wait...what's that sound?

Oh yes, hell freezing over. I swear, this place is so backwards on most issues. :(

[progressive_realist]

61. I think your state is the second LEAST likely to go for Obama.

Preceded only by Utah.

Maybe in 2012? Or maybe by 2024 it will be voting Dem... :evilfrown:

[RetroLounge]

55. Alaska

:9

RL

[TornadoTN]

56. I would love to see Tennessee go blue

We're so damned close in the past few election cycles, in fact, we have a great Democratic Governor. The polls show McCain with around a 10 point lead here, but you'd be amazed at the feedback on the ground and the vast number of volunteers and donors we have turning out this year.

I doubt we'll win this state, but I certainly think its going to be closer than expected. I'd be happy with a 5 point difference at the end of Nov. 4th, then we'll turn this state blue in 2012.

[Tigress DEM]

57. All of them, but just a "little bit"

[Imagevision]

58. Nobody expected a landslide - but I did a year ago, against mcBush, ru kiddin...!

[Top Cat]

59. Georgia

[Darian]

60. Texas, Georgia, and Arizona

[Thrill]

62. North Dakota

[SoxFan]

63. Montana

it has a bit more of a progressive pedigree than the rest of the mountain west, so I have a funny feeling that it's going to be the night's surprise.

[frickaline]

64. West Virginia (nt)

[Versailles]

66. Gonna guess Georgia. Quietly moving Obama's direction. (n/t)

[sampsonblk]

67. kentucky

The conversation there is starting to go in our favor.

[RollWithIt]

68. North Dakota....

Just from looking at the polling.

[MarthaMyDear]

69. TEXAS!

I would love that...! A big blue TX on the electoral map would be great, but I suspect Georgia will be the one that goes blue.