Five Predictions: In 7 days. We'll reach the metaphysical tipping point and the GOP topples over

[Perky]

I have been watching the numbers for months... Not just the horse race, not just the toplines on the state polls, but the internal demographics as well and I have some predictions.


1. I am utterly convinced that after the 30 minute Obama commericals which are going to be about the conunty and about the future and not about McCain/Palin (I doubt they even get mentioned) that the GOP faithful will concede they will lose and some will not even vote.

2. Undecideds will break heavily for Obama and he will take moderate/unaffiliated voter across the nqation with about 70%

3. That will be enough to pickup Sanate seats in North Carolina and Georgia and possibly Texas. Thus giving us a fillibuster proof senate.

4. The coup de gras will be that the late surge that gives Obama about 48% of the white vote. That will be the result of Fundies staying home, the feel good informmercial which will largely non-partisan and the Campaign's GOTV

5. The only true electoral shocker will be Georgia and West Virginia (but watch out for Arkansas) and an Obama sweeep of the Battlegrounds. Final Tally 401-137


I am pretty much convinced that we are on the edge of a win of Tsunamic proportions which will be compared more to 1932 than with 1980.

[tekisui]

1. KNR!

[Poseidan]

2. you can only hide trash for so long

eventually, your parents discover the mess under your bed

Republicans have deceived the nation long enough. The people have learned, and their education has made them unhappy. Ignorance is bliss, until the truth ruins the fantasy.

[javadu]

3. Arkansas Should Not Be Ignored

I think it is much closer than is often given credit. I don't even think it is being polled.

[whirlygigspin]

4. numbers game

I've been looking at the map, and barring Bush's last minute attempt to scew with Ohio, I'm thinking
420-118 (without Arkansas)

[Perky]

7. Not sure how you get to 420

splain???

[Hokie]

5. Perky, I am bookmarking your post

If you are close on this I will be the first to congratulate you on 11/5. You sound like someone who has put some time into looking at the situation. I think the battleground states will all go one way and not split. They would only split if there were some critical local issues. I do not see that this time. If you look back at 2004 Kerry held a bunch of states where he only had small single digit leads in the final polls. Kerry and Gore both had to spend money in those states just to stay within striking distance. Obama has more money and the luxury of spending it all in Bush states. I seem to remember that Gore or Kerry got faked into making a last minute trip to California when some stupid poll showed Bush closing there. That isn't going to happen this time.

[GoesTo11]

6. History waits for no one