(R)asmussen NC Poll: McCain 50%(+2), Obama 48%(-3)

[Hope And Change]

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/election_20082/2008_presidential_election/north_carolina/election_2008_north_carolina_presidential_election

[HughMoran]

1. I saw that - bummer

Oh, well.

[Occam Bandage]

2. never mind

[kick-ass-bob]

33. Oh well?

Damn, and if Fox News runs a poll saying McCain is within 2 pts nationally, do you throw in the towel?

[HughMoran]

35. That wasn't a throw in the towel "oh, well" it was a "next poll will be better "oh, well"

Don't assume I'm giving up!!

[Irishman26]

3. To be honest...

I never really expected that he would win NC anyway so it would be no great shock to me that this poll is right. CO and VA are where we win this election in my opinion.

[thesubstanceofdreams]

4. NC is a true tossup

When deep red states (NC, IN, MT, ND, GA) are the true tossups in the election, you know an Obama victory is coming!
:woohoo:

[NJGeek]

5. The table in the article and the content of the article don't jive

Maybe a misprint?

[thesubstanceofdreams]

6. Come on guys

If a few months ago someone told you that NC would be within 2 points 10 days before the election, you would have been taken as extremely good news. It still is very good news. Of course it would be nice if Obama carried NC - and he has a good chance as most polls show him up and dems have a big lead in early vote. But this election was never going to be decided in NC anyway.

[Demi_Babe]

7. NC will go blue

[NorthCarolina]

19. I agree

based on my observations here on the ground in NC, I think this year we will turn blue. I also expect to see the last of Liddy Dole and Pat McCrory. In my wildest dream I also hope to see Rep. Sue Myrick go bye bye (although this will be a tough one unless we get a deluge of straight Dem ballots cast).

[dbonds]

8. Rasmussen is a worse case scenario for us anyway

[leftist.]

13. This is not wishful thinking, it's the absolute truth.

As dbonds says, watch Ras (and Zogby's non-interactive polls) for worst case scenarios. Also, a move as drastic as the one in this poll likely contains SOME noise. That's not to say Obama is ahead, but that the move seems to be a little too volatile given the national trends as well as the trend we've seen prior to this poll in NC.

[MattNC]

9. plausible

but odd there'd be a five-point swing in a week. i assume their change of support is within the margin of error, so it could just be statistical noise.

[jefferson_dem]

10. Not what I like to see..

But i'll wait for more confirmation on any trends.

[BlackmanX]

11. you guys do realize that rasmussen is a republican poll, right?

if they have the numbers with a mccain slight edge Obama must have a 4 point advantage in nc

[mvd]

15. He's a Repuke

Big McCain/Palin ads on his site. I'm sure he fudges the numbers a bit but not as much as some Repuke pollsters. Could just be noise, though.

[geek tragedy]

12. Eh, NC isn't a tipping point state.

If McCain only wins the state by 2 points, he's lost the Electoral College by a ton.

[progressivebydesign]

14. 700 respondents.. with a 4 point margin of error.

This telephone survey of 700 Likely Voters was conducted by Rasmussen Reports on October 23, 2008. The margin of sampling error for the survey is +/- 4 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence.

[Avalux]

16. That's an unreliable poll - look into the specifics.

Small sample size, large margin of error and republican leaning pollster. No worries.

[Every Man A King]

17. Recent SUSA poll had Obama

up by 5 with Independents. This poll has McSame up 17...

[WI_DEM]

18. This is the first NC poll I've seen with Obama down, but I'm not worried. NC always

was going to be the cherry on the top if he won. Early voting may yet give Obama the win.

[insanity]

20. None of it matters to me untill I see crosstabs

I've never actually seen Rasmussen's methodology.

[Lex]

21. Screw Rasmussen. Obama is winning NC!

nt

[mmonk]

22. Outlier

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2008/president/nc/north_carolina_mccain_vs_obama-334.html

[Lex]

23. MARGIN OF ERROR: plus or minus FOUR (4) percentage points.

nt

[Joanne98]

24. It's the Ashley Todd story. The Pittsburg police need to MOVE FASTER!

[Zynx]

29. Um, no.

Just look at the survey dates and think about that for a second.

[kick-ass-bob]

32. Oh good grief.

The "attack" was frickin Wednesday night. The poll was Thursday. People's minds don't change over some random "attack".

And remember, anyone who knows anything doesn't base the projection on a single poll. This is the first poll to show such negative movement - if 2-3 more show the same movement, then you could worry.

ALSO - 1 million people have already voted in NC.

[amborin]

25. this makes me worry, sorry, and

today's ny times has front page article about how mcliar could still win

[Zynx]

27. North Carolina is not a necessary state to win. It is gravy.

[amborin]

31. okay, that is good...

but mcliar is also moved to within one point in florida according to today's ny times

[mmonk]

26. It should be noted the RCP average still has Obama up in NC.

[S_E_Fudd]

28. Not a dramatic change...

Rassmussen has had this close all along...

With some of these states (NC, VA, OH, FL, MO) some pollsters are going to be wrong...most have Obama up so odds are that is what will occur...

Not a big deal really...

[tekisui]

30. Obama will win here, in NC.

Of the 77 Early voting polling sites in Buncombe county, 77 have more Dems than pukes. All of them, some by margins of 10-1.


Obama has the ground game, the ads and the ethusiasm. I would bet anyone here on an NC Obama win.

[4lbs]

34. It's still within the margin of error. What has early voting looked like in NC, in terms of Dem/Rep

breakdowns?