We've seen the last of Sarah PalinIf she fails to win the vice-presidency, Palin won't be back in 2012. Too many forces are aligned against her
Elana Schor
guardian.co.uk, Thursday October 23 2008 21.00 BST
With all due respect to my esteemed colleague Jonathan Freedland, I feel compelled to contest his theory that the belle of this year's Republican ball will be back in the presidential chase come 2012.
A victory for John McCain would certainly give Palin the chance to rehabilitate her approval ratings and consolidate her appeal to the conservative base in preparation for a future presidential run. But if Barack Obama becomes president next year – and it's a bigger assumption than most liberals would like to think right now – Palin is going to have a devil of a time making a viable bid for the White House.
The first factor holding her back is the same enemy that Palin often decries before her rapt audiences: the media. Every publication from the New Yorker to Field and Stream magazine descended on rural Wasilla, Alaska after Palin joined the Republican ticket last month, and the resulting crush of damning press created a string of ready-made attack adverts for any possible opponent in 2012.
Imagine if John Edwards, the 2004 Democratic vice-presidential nominee, had emerged victorious as his party's nominee this year.
Even if Edwards's infidelity had not become public, Republicans would be subjecting him to a daily re-litigation of the same battles that brought down the Kerry-Edwards ticket four years ago. His campaign would be watched hawkishly for the slightest hint of a reversal on the issues – and so would Palin's in 2012.
Given that the Alaska governor can barely keep her positions straight over a period of weeks on topics as sensitive as military action inside Pakistan and judicial refinancing of mortgages, you'd better believe that Democrats would salivate at the chance to fact-check her four years from now. Not to mention, operatives will be watching to see whether Palin's pricey designer clothes show up at the Salvation Army after the election.
The second drag on Palin's political future is her state. Yes, Alaska is certainly remote and offers scant opportunities for national political exposure. But most importantly, it also lacks a substantial fundraising base from which Palin can extract the cold, hard cash necessary to run for president four years from now.
more at
http://www.guardian.co.uk/commentisfree/cifamerica/2008/oct/23/sarah-palin-2012-election If she runs, she will be the easiest opponent in the history of politics.
I don't think she will survive in Alaska, the focus will be on here for years and she has no conscious, thinks she can do whatever she wants. Think about it, the Republican senator in Alaska is Republican Lisa Murkowski, the daughter of the man she smeared and beat out of his office in her "reformer" mode. She violated the ethics laws she ran on for that office, the laws she pushed to have adopted in her "reformer" persona.
Hell, she may well be charged with crimes for what she has done so far in Alaska, give her a few more years "in charge" and she will make Abramoff look like a angel.
She won't be anything in 2012 and I thank the "PUMAS" for giving the RNC Palin and I thank McCain for his premature selection of Palin. She would be dangerous had she been given time to "evolve", if she were properly groomed.
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