Dems ahead by 24% in early voting in Florida

[Hamlette]

earlier report re: absentee ballots inaccurate. Per Nate.

[Pattib]

1. Best News Ever!!!

[Liberal_in_LA]

2. excellent

[OKNancy]

3. who is Nate?

[five_horizons]

4. Nate Silver

http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/

[BzaDem]

5. I thought we were way ahead among early voters but behind among Absentee voters. They are different.

[Hamlette]

11. Nate says the earlier report was the number of absentee ballots REQUESTED, not returned.

big difference.

[Hamlette]

12. Nate says the earlier report was the number of absentee ballots REQUESTED, not returned.

big difference.

[Hamlette]

13. Nate says the earlier report was the number of absentee ballots REQUESTED, not returned.

big difference.

[ddeclue]

22. In the REAL world, REQUESTED = RETURNED BY ELECTION DAY

especially for Republicans.

[Alter Ego]

6. Nate Silver will either be universally reviled or a god among men

by November 5th.

[goclark]

7. How do they count and report the early voters?

[ddeclue]

10. SOE's tabulate this info every day and make it available to the campaigns

and press.

[1corona4u]

24. I posted this before...

but they are tracking voter turn out...you can draw your own conclusions;

http://elections.gmu.edu/early_vote_2008.html

[ddeclue]

8. Nate Silver?

I know Nate Jenkins with the Obama Campaign. I'll check with him but I was quoting the front page of USA Today so I'd really want to know who Nate Silver is before I put much faith in his word.

Thanks,

Doug De Clue

[ddeclue]

9. BY THE WAY I WAS REFERRING TO COMBINED EV+ABV..

not merely EV which is what YOUR post appears to be saying and YES the D's are UP in EV but NOT overall per USA Today when you include the ABV count.

Doug D.

[Hamlette]

15. Nate says that report is wrong.

(By the way, the New York Times' data on Florida is wrong, as it includes absentee ballot requests as well as early voters. According to an Open Left diarist, Democrats have a 24-point advantage among those who have actually voted early in Florida).
http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/2008/10/some-likely-voter-models-are-suspect.html

The number of requests is different from the number of returned absentee ballots.

As I understand it, there is NO ABV count yet.

[ddeclue]

19. This is simply INACCURATE - you MUST account for BOTH EV AND ABV!

and ABV information is DEFINITELY available.

The SOE's tabulate Requests, Delivers and Returns daily and make those reports available to the media and campaigns.

EARLY VOTING is NOT the whole picture. YOU MUST account for the ABV's which will be almost all returned (90%+) based on historical experience. You ignore the ABV's at your own peril. The whole reason GOTV consultants love ABV's is that they are voted at 90%+ with a good ABV chase program. We got 97%+ back in 2004 for the Dems in Orange County with an effective chase program.

Doug D.
Orlando, FL
Kerry Edwards ABV Chase Director in Orange County, FL, 2004

[Hamlette]

26. I am NOT discounting ABV nor am I saying you should not "account" for ABVs

I'm only saying that to compare the NUMBER OF REQUESTS for ABV voting to the number of ACTUAL VOTES seems premature.

When the whole election is over, fine. Then they get put in the pot but as I see it 100% of REQUESTS for ABV come of necessity BEFORE election day but not all VOTES are cast before election day.

Maybe you could devise a formula that looked like this:

10% of the registered voters requested absentee ballots.
They were requested at a rate of 40% Dem to 60% GOP.
10% of them have been returned and are at the same rate: 40/60. That means 1% of the registered voters have voted at the 40/60 ratio.

If 10% of the registered voters have already voted and they are voting at a rate of 60% DEM and 40% GOP and you have 4 million voters (say) you have 400,000 early votes AT POLLING PLACES with 160K for the GOP and 240K for the dems.

Add in the 1% absentee ballots returned to arrive at a fair number. I don't think it is valid to add in 100% of the BALLOT REQUESTS now UNLESS all of them have come in.

apples/oranges.

But you milage may vary.

[ddeclue]

27. The real situation is this:

The ABV delta is Republican ABV requests*Republican Return Rate-Dem ABV requests * Dem Return Rate.

Historically they've always beaten us in return rates and requests on a state wide level. Republicans return their ABV's at over 90%.

We've improved on that considerably in Central FL since 2006 in some special elections and in the Grayson campaign.

Overall the ABV vote will likely favor R's and the EV vote D's. Combined the net is usually in the R's favor historically.

Ultimately it is wishful thinking to pretend that just because Republicans ABV votes haven't been voted yet that they somehow won't be voted. It is much more realistic to accept that they WILL be voted and go ahead and adjust your totals accordingly and work to beat the Republicans on THAT basis.

Doug D.

[Hamlette]

28. where in the world do you get that from my many posts on this?

I AM NOT SAYING WE SHOULD DISCOUNT ABV

I AM NOT THINKING OR PRETENDING THAT JUST BECAUSE REPUBLICANS ABV VOTES HAVEN'T BEEN VOTED YET THEY SOMEHOW WON'T BE VOTED.

I am saying when we are screaming the alarm we should do so honestly and compare votes with votes and ballot requests with ballot requests. If you want to say "we need to REALLY get out the vote in FLA because ABV favors the GOP" that is fine. Or if you want to say "we get bit in the butt every year by absentee ballots in FL and we need to build up a big lead to offset this factor" I'm with you 100% (if that is in fact true). But to compare ACTUAL FREAKING VOTES CAST to POTENTIAL NUMBER OF ABSENTEE VOTES is dishonest.

But it appears as though I will never get you to see my point (which is actually Nate's point) and you will never make me see yours.

I freaking GIVE UP!

[Hamlette]

14. sleepy head. Nate Silver seems like the real deal, or at least we hope so

www.fivethirtyeight.com

his day job is doing statistics for sports something or other (odds? batting averages? I'm asportual, so I don't know)

If you dig through the archives (a daunting task indeed) he has explained his methodology and runs his numbers all the time to give us odds on the election.

He's been on several liberal news programs lately, Olbermann a couple of times, Colbert etc.

[ddeclue]

20. My day job is as an engineer and computer programmer..

My political gig is as a GOTV consultant and Democratic Activist for Central FL Dem campaigns and I've never heard of Nate "Silver"... there is a Nate Jenkins who is high up in the Obama Campaign in FL however.

Doug D.

[BrklynLiberal]

16. Why are they allowed to give results of early voting? That is like giving results before the polls

are closed....
It does not seem like the right thing to do.

[Hamlette]

17. as I understand it

you either return the ballot in an envelope that identifies your party or you request certain ballots by party and in some cases there is polling info (none of which is as reliable as actually counting the ballots.)

But no, no one is counting and reporting ballots yet. As far as I know

[ddeclue]

25. Actually it really doesn't matter about "the envelope"

your party affiliation is a matter of public record in Florida as is the voter file itself.

All I have to do to know what party an absentee voter belongs to is to cross match the ABV list against the voter roll and I know everyhing I need to know:
Age, DOB, Date of Reg, Sex, Race, Mailing and Street Addresses (except for law enforcement exempt F.S. 119.07) plus my own phone match for that voter and any info I've collected over the years.

The SOE does NOT "count" your ABV, they merely ACCOUNT for it..i.e. requested, delivered, returned. I have to run some queries to get the aggregate counts by party in a specified race, etc. but anybody with some database skills can easily do this task.

Doug D.

[thesubstanceofdreams]

18. They aren't counting the votes

They tabulate the party affiliation for each vote, but they don't actually open/count the vote until November 4.

[ddeclue]

21. Because they ARE NOT counting your vote and reporting the tallies.

What they are doing is providing an accounting of who has requested a ballot, who has been mailed one and who has returned one.

They do this to protect your vote and insure that it doesn't simply disappear.

Consultants make reasonable assumptions about how those ABV voters will vote based on their party, age, sex, race, and based on actual live voter ID's by canvassers to determine how to convert the ABV and EV reporting information into a reasonable educated guess about where their candidate stands and where their opponent stands.

Doug D.

[BrklynLiberal]

29. Thanks all..for clearing that up for me...

[PermanentRevolution]

23. One of those is me!

I just got back. There was a 2 hr. wait at the Coral Gables Library to vote - poll workers said it had been like that all day. If we get a high enough Dem turnout in Miami-Dade, Broward, and West Palm, we win the state.

[TheBigotBasher]

30. A two hour wait for

early voting? And Republicans want to lecture the World about Democracy?