10/22 - The polls and Election Day scenarios (McCain's baby steps continue - Closer than you think?)

[Ian_rd]

October 22, 2008
Current poll numbers from Pollster.com
Days Remaining: 13

Call me crazy, but I say it's closer than most people think. And I explain why below in the Battleground Analysis.


Candidate - Electoral Votes
Obama-Strong - 247
Obama-Leaning - 39
Obama Total - 286

McCain-Strong - 142
McCain-Leaning - 15
McCain Total - 157

Toss-Up - 95

Current Toss-Ups (Electoral Votes) Obama Advantage/Deficit
Nevada (5) 2.4
Montana (3) -3.7
North Dakota (3) 3.6
Missouri (11) 1.6
Indiana (11) -3.5
Ohio (20) 0.7
Florida (27) 2.9
North Carolina (15) 3.1

Current Obama-Leaning (Electoral Votes) Obama Advantage
Washington (11) 7.5
Colorado (9) 5.7
New Mexico (5) 6.5
Minnesota (10) 6.9
New Hampshire (4) 5.8

Current McCain-Leaning (Electoral Votes) McCain Advantage
Georgia (15) 5.4


Significant changes today
- Obama slips in nearly all Battlegrounds.
- West Virginia moves from McCain-Leaning to McCain-Strong. All McCain states are now strong except for Georgia where he has a 5.4 percent lead.


Interpretation
McCain's small gains continue. If this trend continues, he will lead Obama in electoral votes in about a week.


Scenario
(Based on current numbers) - 270 needed to win.

McCain wins all McCain-Strong and McCain-Leaning, plus all Toss-Ups.
Obama - 286
McCain - 252

The above scenario is very favorable to McCain, giving him all the Toss-Ups. And while it still results in an Obama victory, Obama's safety nets are becoming few and tenuous. Yesterday, the thinnest lead Obama had in any of his Leaning states was 6.6 percent. Today it's down to 5.7. This is consistent with the trend of the past three days or more of McCain gaining in the Battlegrounds. In addition to all Toss-Up states, Obama can afford to lose any one of his Leaning states. But if he loses more than one, it's a math game of which Obama-Leaning states add up to McCain's needed 16 and which don't.

Obama's slimmest leads in his Leaning states are in Colorado and New Hampshire. If he loses both of these in addition to all of the Toss-Ups, he pulls off a photo-finish.
Obama - 273
McCain - 265


Battleground Analysis
Caring little about the national percentages, this morning I looked at the poll numbers only in the Toss-Ups and Leaning states (list above) where this election will be won or lost. And while my methodology might be flawed, the results are frightening.

I took the candidate poll numbers in each of these states, weighted them with each state's electoral strength (because a 5-point lead in Florida is worth more than a 5-point lead in New Hampshire, for example), added up the results and converted them into percentages. The following is the result:

Toss-Up States Only
Obama - 48.1%
McCain - 46.7%

Toss-Ups, and all Obama and McCain Leaning States
Obama - 48.3%
McCain - 46.3%

That's a hell of a lot closer than the national polls. Method explained below.


Battleground Analysis Methodology Example
In this example, Using only Ohio and New Hampshire.

For each state: Electoral Votes * 100% = Weighted State Value
For each candidate: Candidate Percentage in State * State Electoral Votes = Candidate's Weighted State Total

Ohio (State Value = 2000)
Obama: 48 * 20 = 960
McCain: 47.3 * 20 = 946
Other/Undecided: 4.7 * 20 = 94

New Hampshire (State Value = 400)
Obama: 49.9 * 4 = 199.6
McCain: 44.1 * 4 = 176.4
Other/Undecided: 6 * 4 = 24

Weighted State Totals (Value of all states = 2400)
Obama: 1159.6
McCain: 1122.4
Other/Undecided: 118

Therefore, the weighted percentages
Obama: 48.3%
McCain: 46.8%

[FUCK_BUSH]

1. Sure it's Close.That's why we have to do our part and help Obama to get elected.

[Median Democrat]

2. The Main Wildcard Is GOP Voter Suppression. Is It Worth 5%?

What impact will GOP voter suppression have on turnout and the numbers? Even now, McCain supporters are heckeling voters who are voting early.

[OnTheOtherHand]

3. ack!

By definition, of course McCain is close in the "toss-up states"!

McCain's small gains continue. If this trend continues, he will lead Obama in electoral votes in about a week.

I'll leave this for someone else. (ETA: Well, I'll mention that if you go here and turn up the sensitivity, the national gap appears to be widening now, not narrowing.)

[TornadoTN]

4. What the hell is this?

Interpretation
McCain's small gains continue. If this trend continues, he will lead Obama in electoral votes in about a week.

All of the polls I have seen suggest nothing of this sort. Is this just wishful thinking?

[TheZug]

5. Fair enough, but some questions:

Isn't it true that the state polls tend to lag a little behind the national polls? And if that's the case, then are you seeing a slight narrowing of the state polls that reflects the national polls from a few days back--and likewise, we should expect to see Obama's lead in the state polls expanding a few days from now, to reflect what we're seeing in the national right now?

I don't know--just asking. And I take no issue with your general warning that the election could still be lost. We and Obama CANNOT get complacent.

[Ian_rd]

7. I agree that they lag, therefore Colin Powell has not yet registered.

Powell differs from nearly every other political figure or establishment in the nation because his endorsement could actually have an impact. NYT endorses Obama? Yawn. Weekly Standard endorses McCain? Duh! But Powell commands much respect across the political spectrum.

Therefore I'm hoping his eloquent and sober endorsement will register soon.

Indeed. We cannot become complacent. Too many liberals are already tapping the keg. And I believe it is a much closer race than the liberal blogosphere and much of the MSM are claiming.

[Fire_brand]

6. Pennsylvania and Virginia

http://www.pollster.com/08PAPresGEMvO.php

http://www.pollster.com/08VAPresGEMvO.php


The state polls are usually a little slower to reflect the momentum that the daily tracking polls show. The state poll data wer're looking at now reflects the previous period when McCain gained on Obama slightly after the 3rd debate. In the post-Colin Powell period the tracking polls have moved back toward Obama, and the next round of state polls will confirm that. The McCain "gain" in battleground states will be stagnant at worst.