New Fox/Rasmussen Polls: Mixed Bag for Obama. O+5 in CO & MO, M+1 in FL. M+2 in OH, O+3 in NC

[democrattotheend]

Updated to add link: http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/election_20082/2008_presidential_election/fox_rasmussen_polling/fox_rasmussen_swing_state_polling_october_19_2008

State Polls: Colorado: Obama +5...See Article, See Crosstabs; Florida: McCain +1 ...See Article, See Crosstabs; Missouri: Obama +5 ...See Article, See Crosstabs; North Carolina: Obama +3 ...See Article, See Crosstabs; Ohio: McCain +2 ...See Article, See Crosstabs.

CO: O 51 (-1), M 46 (+1)
FL: O 48 (-3), M 49 (+3)
MO: O 49 (-3), M 44 (-2)
NC: O 51 (+3), M 48 (No Change)
OH: O 47 (-2), M 49 (No Change)


Looks like we gained ground in NC, lost ground in OH and FL. In MO Obama is up 5 and was up 6 last time, but both candidates have lost a couple points.

[WI_DEM]

1. None of those is terrible, so that's good. And MO is a real surprise in this and other polls.

[nickn777]

2. Crap......n/t

[jab105]

3. O hasn't been in FL in a while...but he is here now, and will be here

many times over the next week from what I understand...

[meow mix]

4. lookout for that tightening!

suck it, david gregory. this is stagnate

[Thrill]

5. I don't believe any of his polls. Good or bad

[Drunken Irishman]

6. Looks like much of this is just statistical noise.

Especially Ohio and Florida.

[Hope And Change]

8. Yes, I think that too.

[democrattotheend]

11. Florida looks like more than statistical noise

But you're right about the rest, and it's not a huge shift in any of them.

[FLyellowdog]

7. I'm not going to look at the polls...they make me nauseous.

[Marsala]

23. Even these polls?

I feel giddy, not nauseous.

[blueclown]

9. How is this bad news?

Obama leads in 3 states that weren't swing states in 2004, and he is within the margin of error in the other 2.

[democrattotheend]

12. Most of it's good news, but the trend in Florida is disappointing

I tend to look at trends, not just numbers. So the movement is a mixed bag...but as someone pointed out, if these numbers hold we win.

[blueclown]

17. You are getting all dissapointed over nothing.

You are overreacting based on statistical noise.

What do we know about Florida?

It will be damn close on Election Day, and whichever campaign has the better GOTV operation on election day will win the state.

If Rasmussen's final poll shows McCain up 5 in Florida, then you worry. But this race is within the margin of error.

[FVZA_Colonel]

18. Well, most polls seem to show him with some lead, and Hillary is there right now.

Plus, I'm fairly sure Obama will be heading down there relatively soon, and with more ad money available there's time to flip this back around.

[bluestateguy]

10. If these numbers hold, we win

McCain must win ALL of those states, and Virginia, where he is in A LOT of trouble right now.

And everyone remember that Suffolk Univ., had Obama up 9 in Ohio today, so the real Ohio number is probably something like +2 or +3 for Obama in Ohio.

[knowledgeispwr]

13. I said before that I wouldn't be surprised if Obama won VA and NC and lost in OH.

We'll see what happens.

[progressivebydesign]

14. Interesting. Of course I'm SURE that Fox has no vested interest in the sampling models used.

[The Stranger]

15. Fucking Ohio and Florida.

I'll never forget the past two elections.

[Alhena]

16. That's a huge win, folks - we are talking a Republican poll

[CreekDog]

19. This is a mixed bag for Obama?

McCain has to win every one of those states to win, Obama needs to win 1 or at most 2 of them.

Splain me.

[writes3000]

21. If Obama isn't constantly gaining in every poll, then it's reason to "worry".

I'm not worried. Just continuing to call and donate - same as yesterday.

[DCBob]

20. Stupid robo calls may be having some effect. But these polls are stale already.

They were done yesterday before the full impact of the Powell endorsement. Wait for the next round of polls and they should look better. IMHO.

[mvd]

22. Also FOX/Rasmussen

The FOX polls always are a bit more McSame favorable.

[Awsi Dooger]

24. Worry about the national polls

As long as the Obama margin remains intact, the states stay in line.

I realize the conventional wisdom conditioning is the opposite. It is also ignorant, frankly a novice viewpoint. In the primaries the state polls are more relevant. In the general election the truth is in the national polls.