I think Senator Smith (R-OR) is unfortunately safe...

[LiberadorHugo]

Obama will win so early in the night that less energized Democrats in OR will just stay home. :-(

[sandnsea]

1. We vote by mail

Most of us will have voted by election day.

[Arugula Latte]

2. Ah, but you forget ... The entire state votes by mail.

The vast majority of ballots will be banked BEFORE election day. Yes, the last-minute people can drop off their ballots on election day at a designated site, but that is only a fraction of the total.

[PBS Poll-435]

3. I think the Senator

Will be in the unemployment line come Wednesday.

So sad!

[AlCzervik]

4. that's a loser right there, i live in Ca and we won't be staying home.

[WI_DEM]

5. vote by mail and this is a competitve senate race so people will vote.

[grantcart]

6. Oregon will be voting this week by mail and latest polling shows him behind

http://www.pollster.com/polls/or/08-or-sen-ge-svm.php

[pdxmom]

7. There was an Obama campaign volunteer by my house this morning and

they are pushing getting those ballots marked and in as soon as we get them. You better believe that, even if we had to actually go out and vote on election day, the push to rid ourselves of Smith is strong and we aren't just energized by Obama around here. People would be out there and voting anyway.

[central scrutinizer]

8. Oregon ballots were in mailboxes on Friday

Mrs. Scrutinizer and I have already voted. We vote by mail and have one of the highest voter participation rates in the nation because of it. On edit - one more thought. There are no red meat ballot measures on gay marriage this year to energize the right wingers. That should work against Smith. There is an English-only in schools measure but that doesn't inspire the passion that gay marriage does.

[KingFlorez]

9. That doesn't make any sense

Oregon votes by mail, so the votes will be locked in.

[Arugula Latte]

10. Update: Look at this Research 2000/Kos poll:

Oregon 10/14-15

Senate: Merkley (D) 47, Smith (R) 41
President: Obama 53, McCain 38

Wow, those are great numbers. Even if the Merkely/Smith race were tied, I'd expect Obama's coattails to be enough to push Merkley in under these pro-Obama conditions.