The Daily Widget, Mon 10/20 – O-381, M-157 – Minnesota Strong; West Virginia Switches Back

[phrigndumass]

1. ANALYSIS

I’m amazed at the polarizing of the electoral map right now. Thirty-eight states and DC are in one or the other candidate’s Strong column today, polling for one candidate by 10 points or greater over the other candidate. That leaves only 12 states still in play, 8 of which are currently leaning to Barack Obama. Only 6 of these states are within the margin of error, and 5 of those are tipping to Obama.

Two new polls for Minnesota move that state into the Strong Obama column today, following Maine which moved into the Strong Obama column yesterday. Over the weekend, Mississippi moved back into the Strong McCain column. Obama is holding 264 electoral votes in his Strong column (just 6 shy of winning 270), compared to John McCain’s 137 Strong electoral votes. The remaining 137 electoral votes lay somewhere in between.

West Virginia had moved into the Lean Obama column late last week, but two new polls show McCain leading there by 6 points and 8 points, moving it back to his side. Florida and Nevada are also flirting with the margin of error. Over the weekend, Florida moved into the margin of error and Nevada moved out.

Obama’s popular vote count from the state polls is holding steady just short of 50%, compared to 44.2% for McCain. Obama is currently leading by 7.7 million votes nationwide.

(Interesting notice posted today about manipulation of McCain markets on Intrade on October 10th)



2. NEW STATE POLLS


Scale:
Strong Obama (10% or greater)
Weak Obama (5% to 9%)
Lean Obama (0% to 4%)
Lean McCain (0% to 4%)
Weak McCain (5% to 9%)
Strong McCain (10% or greater)


Alaska Obama 38, McCain 57 (Research 2000/DailyKos, 10/16 +/- 4.0, 600 LV)
California Obama 59, McCain 35 (Survey USA, 10/16 +/- 4.0, 615 LV)
Colorado Obama 52, McCain 45 (Rasmussen, 10/16 +/- 4.0, 700 LV)
Florida Obama 47, McCain 43 (Hamilton, 10/13 +/- 4.0, 700 LV)
Florida Obama 49, McCain 45 (Research 2000, 10/15 +/- 4.0, 600 LV)
Florida Obama 47, McCain 49 (Survey USA, 10/16 +/- 4.3, 553 LV)
Georgia Obama 43, McCain 49 (Research 2000/DailyKos, 10/15 +/- 4.0, 600 LV)
Maine Obama 55, McCain 38 (Research 2000/DailyKos, 10/15 +/- 4.0, 600 LV)
Mississippi Obama 40, McCain 50 (Research 2000/DailyKos, 10/15 +/- 4.0, 600 LV)
Missouri Obama 52, McCain 46 (Rasmussen, 10/15 +/- 4.0, 700 LV)
Nevada Obama 50, McCain 45 (Rasmussen, 10/16 +/- 4.0, 700 LV)
North Carolina Obama 46, McCain 44 (Research 2000/DailyKos, 10/15 +/- 4.0, 600 LV)
North Dakota Obama 45, McCain 45 (Research 2000/DailyKos, 10/15 +/- 4.0, 600 LV)
Oregon Obama 53, McCain 38 (Research 2000/DailyKos, 10/15 +/- 4.0, 600 LV)
Pennsylvania Obama 53, McCain 39 (Morning Call, 10/16 +/- 4.0, 602 LV)
Pennsylvania Obama 52, McCain 39 (Muhlenberg College, 10/17 +/- 4.0, 593 LV)
Texas Obama 40, McCain 52 (Research 2000/DailyKos, 10/15 +/- 4.0, 600 LV)
Wisconsin Obama 51.4, McCain 36.3 (U of WI Milwaukee, 10/12 +/- 5.0, 391 LV)
Wyoming Obama 35, McCain 58 (Research 2000/DailyKos, 10/16 +/- 4.0, 600 LV)
Kentucky Obama 39, McCain 53 (Research 2000/DailyKos, 10/16 +/- 4.0, 600 LV)
Minnesota Obama 52, McCain 39 (Research 2000/DailyKos, 10/16 +/- 4.0, 600 LV)
Minnesota Obama 52, McCain 41 (Star Tribune, 10/16 +/- 3.8, 1049 LV)
Montana Obama 45, McCain 49 (Research 2000/DailyKos, 10/16 +/- 4.0, 600 LV)
Ohio Obama 45, McCain 46 (NBC/Mason-Dixon, 10/17 +/- 4.0, 625 LV)
Pennsylvania Obama 52, McCain 40 (Morning Call, 10/18 +/- 4.0, 599 LV)
West Virginia Obama 42, McCain 50 (Public Policy Polling, 10/17 +/- 2.8, 1223 LV)
West Virginia Obama 41, McCain 47 (NBC/Mason-Dixon, 10/17 +/- 4.0, 625 LV)
Wisconsin Obama 51, McCain 39 (NBC/Mason-Dixon, 10/17 +/- 4.0, 625 LV)



3. ELECTORAL VOTE SNAPSHOT



^ FIGURE 3a. This graph shows the daily tracking of Obama’s projected electoral votes from three sources. 270 is a majority of the electoral votes. The blue line shows daily tracking from 538.com, which projects what the outcome should be on election day. The red line shows daily tracking from Electoral-Vote.com, which shows a current snapshot of Obama’s electoral progress if the undecideds break evenly. The green line is my own projection, and it shows a current snapshot of Obama’s electoral progress if the undecideds break the same way as the swing states. A trend line is used (dashed green line) to show the average progress since May 19 and possible route for the next seven days.



^ FIGURE 3b. This graph shows Obama’s green line and red line from the previous graph, and compares it to John Kerry’s 2004 progress (orange line) as shown from Electoral-Vote.com. (Both the red line and the orange line show data from Electoral-Vote.com)



^ FIGURE 3c. This chart organizes all the state polls into groups categorized by how much a certain candidate is leading. “Strong” is used to indicate a candidate leading by 10 points or greater in a certain state. “Weak” is used to indicate a candidate leading between 5 and 9 points in a certain state. “Lean” is used to indicate a candidate leading between 0 and 4 points in a certain state. A total of electoral votes for each category is given at the bottom of each column.






4. POPULAR VOTE AND NATIONAL POLL SNAPSHOT



^ FIGURE 4a. I am projecting 136 million votes on election day, which is the total 2004 votes plus population growth and new voter registration totals for each state. A total projected popular vote is calculated for each candidate based on projected votes on election day this year multiplied by each state’s current poll results. This graph shows the daily tracking of the popular vote calculations.



^ FIGURE 4b. Obama’s cumulative lead in the national daily tracking polls is illustrated in this graph. Showing it this way helps us see the Obama Campaign’s momentum shifts much easier over time.



^ FIGURE 4c. This chart compares each polling agency’s latest polls with their averages for each candidate this year. The top section of the chart compares the Daily Tracking polls and my own projected popular vote for each candidate. The bottom section of the chart compares the National Tracking polls (usually released monthly). Each section is totaled and averaged, and an overall average is shown at the very bottom of the chart. The latest polls released for each polling agency are displayed in the center columns for each candidate, as well as Obama’s current lead in those polls (a negative number denotes Obama trailing McCain in that poll). The columns on the right show each polling agency’s averaged results since May 1.



5. OBAMA’S SEVENTEEN



^ FIGURE 5a. The “Obama Seventeen” is the group of 17 states where the Obama campaign is concentrating much of its efforts this year. This widget shows how the candidates will do if the undecideds nationwide break the same way as the swing states. Each of the seventeen swing states are listed below the indicator’s current percentage of the total 1700 possible. The closing figures on Intrade are shown next to each state, with a column to show the change from the previous day. The scale for these is 0 to 100, with 50 being a majority. The number of electoral votes for each state is shown in the left margin, and the most recent polling for each state is shown in the far right column.



^ FIGURE 5b. This graph shows the daily tracking of “Obama’s Seventeen” swing states total from the Obama’s Seventeen widget above. To show Obama’s progress in the swing states, divide the latest closing figure by 1700.



^ FIGURE 5c. This graph plots all of the state polling results for Obama’s Seventeen swing states, and displays a trend line to illustrate each candidate’s progress in these states as a group.



6. WIGAND ELECTORAL AVERAGE



^ FIGURE 6a. The Wigand Electoral Average is our own indicator, and shows how the candidates will do if the undecideds nationwide break the same way as the swing states. Each of the twelve swing states are listed below the indicator’s current score. The closing figures on Intrade are shown next to each state, with a column to show the change from the previous day. The scale for these is 0 to 100, with 50 being a majority.



^ FIGURE 6b. This graph shows the daily tracking of the swing states total from the Wigand Electoral Average widget above. To show Obama’s progress in the swing states, divide the latest closing figure by 1200.



^ FIGURE 6c. Wigand vs. Trading and Real Clear Politics Average. The Wigand Electoral Average uses both poll averages and trading (swing states), and this graph compares it to the national daily tracking average from Real Clear Politics, as well as the closing trading figures from Intrade (people buying shares with real money) and Rasmussen Markets (people using fake money).



^ FIGURE 6d. This graph shows the daily tracking of each swing state’s closing figure on Intrade. The scale is 0 to 100 with 50 being a majority. I commonly refer to the range from 40.00 to 60.00 as “The Zone” because the states in The Zone are true swing states this year.

The Wigand Electoral Average uses public polling results to determine base states for both parties and a short list of swing states, and combines the actual electoral votes from base states with a weighted Intrade calculation for electoral votes from swing states to derive an average on a scale of 0 to 100. On this scale, greater than 50.00 is considered a win for Barack Obama. An average of 50.10 would yield 270 electoral votes, and an average of 100.00 would yield 538 electoral votes. More Information

7. LINKS AND SOURCES


Yesterday’s Widget
Full Weekly Tracking
Saturday Data Dump
Past editions of THE MATH

Sources:
Pollster.com
FiveThirtyEight.com
Electoral-Vote.com
Intrade
Rasmussen Markets
RCP Average
RCP Latest Polls
3 Blue Dudes


.

[a kennedy]

1. These graphs are like my morning coffee phrigndumass....

:hug: If I don't see them, it's like there's something missing from my morning routine.....thank you. {First game the whole team played for four quarters eh?? GPG!!}

[phrigndumass]

4. We'll have to start a "good morning" thread after the election to wean ourselves, lol

For at least a couple weeks :D

That was a very good game yesterday! Rodgers is looking more confident.

:donut: Good morning! :hi:

[Kukesa]

23. And mine, as well. Good morning, kennedy and phrig! n/t

[five_horizons]

2. Thanks as always, Phrig

Looking good. I wish we could start pulling away in FL. We're working our tails off down here. But overall I have no complaints.

[phrigndumass]

5. yw, 5H :)

I have an inkling we'll win Florida, thanks to everyone like you working their butts off down there :D

:donut: Good morning! :hi:

[myrna minx]

3. Good morning dear.

I knew Minnesota would break away for Obama. We have one hellofa Presidential ticket.

We can also thank Norm Coleman, the US Chamber of Commerce and the NRSC for the nasty, vicious attack ads that are running non stop as well as our very own Michele Bachmann, who has, no doubt, shocked the good people of this great state.

Have a great day. :loveya:

[phrigndumass]

6. Good morning, dah-link :)

Wow, I'll bet Minnesotans are really getting tired of the negative. No wonder Obama and Franken beginning to pull away there.

:hi: :loveya:

[davidpdx]

7. I'm peeing my pants over and over again with the numbers

They keep getting better!

:hi:

[phrigndumass]

9. Look for this sign:

:7 :hi:

[davidpdx]

15. Didn't make it....oops

[phrigndumass]

18. LOL!

:rofl:

[gademocrat7]

8. Good morning, Mr. P.

Thanks for The Daily Widget.

[phrigndumass]

10. yw :)

:donut: Good morning to you, gd7! :hi:

[fight4my3sons]

11. Good morning, phrig!

Everything is looking so nice. :)

:hi: :bounce:

[phrigndumass]

13. If everything is the same by the end of this week ...

it would be even nicer :D

The way things are going, Friday (10 days prior to the election) will be a safe day to start projecting with confidence.

:donut: Good morning! :hi: :hi: :bounce:

[mucifer]

12. Thankss Phrig! I'm still going to Indiana every Saturday. I found that Gary is much

more friendly than Hammond. It's pretty racially segregated out there. But, then again so is Chicago. I'm not sure we are gonna win Indiana. But, we sure are trying.

[phrigndumass]

14. We couldn't win there without trying, so thanks for working there!

Northwest Indiana could tip the state blue.

:donut: Good morning! :hi:

[unblock]

16. obama has too many "strong" states to fit!!

:rofl:

[phrigndumass]

19. lol ... that was the only solution I could find :)

I tried to cram it all together to fit, but it sucked to look at, lol

:donut: Good morning, unblock! :hi:

[unblock]

30. it's really amazing; the republicans are supposed to be the "many small states" party!

of course, obama's strong states aren't all that small....

[Demeter]

17. Very Impressive! A Great Morning for Us All!

The 6 Column chart is simply amazing, not only for the Hard Obama, but even the Lean Obama--look at how many EV are in that column! Florida, Ohio, North Carolina (Thurmond and Helms and the like spinning in their graves--a new source of electricity!) and so forth...

I am never satisfied, though; in my greed, I'd like 60% of the popular vote to go Obama, just to prove once and for all that crime doesn't pay.

I can't figure out the 14 EV discrepency, though, between your 381 in the title, and the 367 in the table...

[phrigndumass]

21. A new source of electricity, lol :)

I'm not sure either man ever had a "charge" :D

My electoral vote calculator is probably seeing Indiana and Montana as tipping blue, given the average national position for Obama (+6). That's 14 EVs right there.

:donut: Good morning! :hi:

[Demeter]

28. Ah! Prognosticating, Are We?

How about that popular vote then? Any chance?

They didn't need a charge, just "personal magnetism"--that should set up a voltage when set spinning...

[phrigndumass]

29. I'm seeing 50.5% with Undecideds included

If Naderbarr's numbers go down, Obama's PV could go as high as 52%.

Let's hope!!!

:hi:

(personal magnetism, lol)

[tekisui]

20. CO, VA, or MO stregthening to Strong Obama,

and he'll have over 270 polling over 10%.

I think after this weekend, with the MO rally, the $150 million in Sept, and Colin Powell's endorsement, his lead will grow.

Morning, phrign!:hi:

[phrigndumass]

22. Hell, I'd like to see all three states go strong, lol

Wonder if it's possible, lol

:donut: Good morning, tek! :hi:

[SIMPLYB1980]

24. Morning phrigndumass, thanks for all your work keeping us up to date on the numbers!

:yourock:

[phrigndumass]

26. yw, sb80 :)

Happy to do it :D

:donut: Good morning! :hi:

[Curtland1015]

25. Fantastic! 15 Loooooooooooooooong days to go!

Keep up the great work Phrig!

[phrigndumass]

27. Thanks, Curtland :)

President-Elect Barack Obama ... has a nice ring to it.

:donut: Good morning! :hi:

[crazy_vanilla]

31. isn't it beautiful

to see all the blue and purple on the map? What a difference from 2004.

Thank you, great job.

[phrigndumass]

36. "What a difference from 2004" :)

Isn't it? The 50-state strategy is a winning formula for us ... I hope we continue with it in future presidential races.

:hi:

[marions ghost]

32. thanks

:kick: :kick: :kick:

[phrigndumass]

37. yw :)

:hi:

[grace0418]

33. As ever, thank you.

:hi:

[phrigndumass]

38. yw, grace :)

:hi:

[grantcart]

34. kick

[phrigndumass]

39. What do you think about America being bipolar, gc?

Widgeteers would like to know.

:hi:

[grantcart]

40. I think that it is following Obama's script he has basically gotten the 270 EVs

safe and now he is going after 7 more 'Bush' states to keep McCain busy and out of any Kerry states.


I cannot see any reasonable path on how McCain could get to 270 especially as he must be almost out of money.


Just found this excellent site to track early voting.

[AnarchoFreeThinker]

35. kicked and recccccccccccccccccccccc'd