The force of the Hillary Effect
By Derrick Z. Jackson
Globe Columnist / October 18, 2008
LONDONDERRY, N.H.
THE BRADLEY EFFECT is fading into the Hillary Effect.
The former is the phenomenon that the polls overestimate how much white voters will support a black candidate. The latter was in full force Thursday at Barack Obama's first rally of the homestretch of the presidential campaign. Huge numbers of women from New Hampshire and Massachusetts who breathed fire into Hillary Clinton's campaign after Clinton was stunned in Iowa by Obama cheered jubilantly with the original Obama believers.
Until recently, polls indicated that a quarter of Clinton voters were so steamed over her elimination that they threatened to vote for Republican John McCain. A month ago, McCain had a slight lead in two polls in New Hampshire. Obama now leads by 10 percentage points in Real Clear Politics averaging of the last state polls. From listening to former Clinton voters, you know why.
"It took two to three weeks for it to all settle down," said Sue Martin, 68, social studies textbook editor from Atkinson, N.H. She was a Clinton volunteer in the Salem office. "Back then, I thought he was way too young. But he's grown a lot."
"Up until the last month, I was going to write in Hillary," said Janice Keene, a 58-year-old retired elementary school teacher from Londonderry. "I was quite disappointed. But our country needs change, especially the middle class."
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