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How many days before election did Gore's / Kerry's support started to slip ?

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palintology Donating Member (252 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Oct-17-08 08:23 AM
Original message
How many days before election did Gore's / Kerry's support started to slip ?
I need some reference points (days) before I get nervous.
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Uzybone Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Oct-17-08 08:25 AM
Response to Original message
1. You are already nervous
Go out there and canvass, donate money, phone bank something else apart from wondering when we are going to lose.
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LibraLiz1973 Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Oct-17-08 08:26 AM
Response to Original message
2. Gore won in 2000
Kerry never really slipped.


No point in cultivating nervousness at this point. BE POSITIVE
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mw Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Oct-17-08 08:55 AM
Response to Reply #2
15. Exactly. Gore won. Those who disagree need to get over it
It was a long time ago. I don't know why the "Bush won" dreamers can't accept long-ago reality.
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AlphaCentauri Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Oct-17-08 10:12 AM
Response to Reply #15
28. same thing for those who blame Nader n/t
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Phredicles Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Oct-17-08 08:26 AM
Response to Original message
3. I don't recall that Gore or Kerry were EVER ahead in Sept. or Oct., let alone
as far ahead as Obama has been. I thought both Gore and Kerry had a big shift in their favor at the end - I remember being pleasantly very surprised at Gore winning the popular vote the next morning.
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scheming daemons Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Oct-17-08 08:28 AM
Response to Original message
4. Neither Gore nor Kerry EVER led in the month of October.... revisionist history

Gore didn't lead in the "poll of polls" at any time in the final month. His first lead was on election day....and he closed because of the last-minute Bush DUI scandal. Before the DUI scandal, Bush had a 6-point lead going into the final week.


There was NO point in which Kerry led.
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palintology Donating Member (252 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Oct-17-08 08:29 AM
Response to Reply #4
6. That's very good news !
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tiptoe Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Oct-17-08 09:55 PM
Response to Reply #4
37. disagree. see post #34. nt
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scheming daemons Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Oct-18-08 09:44 AM
Response to Reply #37
42. That's November.... I said they were never ahead in OCTOBER
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blueclown Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Oct-17-08 08:29 AM
Response to Original message
5. Gore and Kerry were never ahead at this point.
Kerry was ahead in July, and Gore was ahead for a few weeks after his convention, but by late October, Bush had the lead in both races.
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tiptoe Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Oct-17-08 10:02 AM
Response to Reply #5
23. Kerry was ahead on Nov 1. Here is the electoral-vote.com EV Predictor map on Nov 1, 2004:
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blueclown Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Oct-17-08 10:03 AM
Response to Reply #23
24. No he wasn't.
Look at the national polls at that point. Bush led in all of them, except for the Faux News poll.
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tiptoe Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Oct-17-08 09:00 PM
Response to Reply #24
36. see post #34: studies/comparison '04 Pre-election Vote-Projected EV & Post-election Vote-Polled EV.
Edited on Fri Oct-17-08 09:14 PM by tiptoe
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skipos Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Oct-17-08 10:05 AM
Response to Reply #23
25. And how did EV look on Nov 2?
Can you provide a link to that?

What about the national polls, how were they looking the day before the election?
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tiptoe Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Oct-17-08 08:15 PM
Response to Reply #25
34. ALL THREE PRELIM EXIT POLLS, night of Nov2, had Kerry ahead by ~3% -- random sample (3rd ==1% MoE)
Edited on Fri Oct-17-08 08:52 PM by tiptoe

...The manipulation of polling weights is nothing new. Recall that the 2004 and 2006 Final National Exit Polls weightings were adjusted to match the recorded vote miscount. But all category cross-tabs had to be changed, not just Party ID. Of course, the Final Exit Poll (state and national) is always matched to the Recorded vote, even though it may be fraudulent — as it was in 2000, 2002, 2004 and 2006.

In 2004, the 12:22am National Exit Poll (NEP) had a 3835 Democrat/Republican 'Party ID' mix.

Kerry won  the 12:22am Preliminary NEP by 5148%.    ( 13,047 random sample, 1% MoE )

The weighting mix was changed to 3737 in the Final NEP  to 'force' a match to the Recorded vote miscount;

Likewise, the Gore/Bush 'Voted 2000' weights were changed from 3941 to 3743 in the Final    ('13047' & '13660' here).

Bush won  the 1:25pm 'forced' Final NEP by 5148%.

Bush was the "official" winner by 50.748.3% with 286 EV.

...
from and continued re 2006 midterms in "Fixing the polls: Party ID, Voted in 2000, RV vs. LV" in 10/7 ELECTION MODEL (TIA): OBAMA POLLING 364 EV (356 EXPECTED)- MAXIMUM PLAUSIBLE 375 EV w INDIANA?

Also, see the graph here: It's very clear...These are the PRE-ELECTION Polls...



The above is what occurred on Election night in POST-election exit-polling, i.e. direct from the proverbial horses' mouths, the voters on Nov 2, 2004, without memory issue with their current vote -- random sample, 1% Margin of Error, as per link above.

What about Electoral Votes and a PRE-election polling Vote Projection, compared to POST-election Exit Poll, the recorded Vote Count and the Final "exit poll"?

The 2004 Election Model State Model used latest state-by-state PRE-election polls and included an allocation of undecided voters (UVA) -- like professional forecasting organizations Gallup, Harris, Zogby (unlike, though, many casual viewers of polls who, when confronted with polls indicating, for example, 'Bush-46% Kerry-44% Undecided-10%', ignored the implications of "undecided" columns, failed to apply UVA and recklessly promoted "See! Bush was leading!!"). The State Model projected 337 electoral votes for Kerry. That pre-election EV-projection figure matched exactly the actual EV total derived POST-election from exit-poll vote share calculations using "IM WPE" data reported by exit-pollster Edison-Mitofsky in January 2005 (p 32, column 'IM WPE'), applied to corresponding recorded Vote Count margins, and re-presented HERE (context within 2004 Election Model Review), with inclusion of exit poll results for Kerry electoral votes totaling...337.
The Election Model's Pre-election Vote Projection for Kerry of 337 EV matched
exactly
the Post-election WPE Model Exit Poll indication Kerry won 337 electoral votes.

The recorded vote "officially" awarded Kerry 252 electoral votes and Bush 286 EV.

The Final National Exit Poll was matched to the recorded vote, regardless the resulting impossibilities.

A comparison, state-by-state, of the 2004 Election Model's pre-election Vote Projected, the pollster's post-election Vote Polled and the recorded Vote Counted (to which the pollster's Final "poll" was 'forced' to match by changes in demographics which were impossible) appears under the State Model section of any 2008 Election Model full update. (10/14 is provided below.) A comparison, too, of current Obama Vote Projected and Kerry's final "Vote Projected" is included in the 2008 State Model.

The 2004 Election Model National Model provides in the very last column a 5-latest-national poll moving average of the margins between Kerry and Bush leading up to election day. Is it just coincidence that the well-established margin-trend reflects the Kerry-Bush margins of the three post-election preliminary exit polls on election day? (See NEP Timeline.)

Moreover, have a look at a couple of chapters from the following:
2004 Election Fraud Analysis: Confirmation of a Kerry Landslide
3: Pre-Election Polling I
4. Pre-Election Polling II

?click">Kerry/Bush National Trend derived from Weighted State Polls

?click">Kerry Electoral Vote and Win Probability Projection Trend

?click">Kerry Electoral and National Vote Projection Trend

?click"> Independent National Polls: Kerry Vs. Bush Monthly Trend



State Model
(2-party vote shares)
L A T E S T   S T A T E   P O L L
 
KEY STATES
(within MoE)
 
2004 EM  KERRY  VOTE–PROJECTION  vs
EXIT POLL  &  RECORDED VOTE–COUNT
 
2008  vs  2004
PROJECTED  VOTE

 

 
 
Pre-Undecided Voter Allocation
 
60% UVA
Projection
 
MC Exp EV
Win Prob
 

Resource  Allocation
 
Vote
Projected
WPE (IM)
 Exit Poll 
Vote
Counted
 
Kerry Projection
deviation
 
 
2008 Obama
diff
 
StatesEV
Flip To(*)


   

AL
AK
AZ
AR
CA

CO
CT
DC
DE
FL

GA
HI
ID
IL
IN

IA
KS
KY
LA
ME

MD
MA
MI
MN
MS

MO
MT
NE
NV
NH

NJ
NM
NY
NC
ND

OH
OK
OR
PA
RI

SC
SD
TN
TX
UT

VT
VA
WA
WV
WI
WY
Last
Poll
Date

10/9
9/21
9/30
9/22
10/9

10/12
9/28
9/13
10/9
10/11

10/9
9/20
9/17
9/20
10/6

10/9
9/22
9/28
9/28
9/25

9/23
9/25
10/12
10/12
9/16

10/12
9/26
9/17
10/9
10/6

10/12
9/22
10/11
10/11
10/9

10/11
9/17
10/11
10/11
9/16

9/23
9/21
9/29
9/16
9/13

9/22
10/11
10/2
10/8
10/12
9/28
VoteShare
Popular
Electoral

9
3
10
6
55

9
7
3
3
27

15
4
4
21
11

7
6
8
9
4

10
12
17
10
6

11
3
5
5
4

15
5
31
15
3

20
7
7
21
4

8
3
11
34
5

3
13
11
5
10
3
Obama
50.09 %
372

37
38
38
37
56

52
54
90
56
50

45
68
33
56
45

54
40
42
40
50

57
56
54
51
44

51
45
37
49
52

54
52
64
48
45

49
34
56
53
55

41
39
39
38
28

55
51
53
50
54
37
McCain
43.99 %
166

61
55
52
47
40

42
38
9
38
44

50
27
62
38
49

41
56
53
55
43

38
39
38
40
52

45
51
56
45
42

42
44
31
47
43

46
64
41
40
35

54
55
57
51
64

36
44
43
42
37
58
 
Spread
6.09 %
206

(24)
(17)
(14)
(10)

16

10
16
81
18
6

(5)
41
(29)
18
(4)

13
(16)
(11)
(15)

7

19
17
16
11
(8)

6
(6)
(19)

4
10

12
8
33
1
2

3
(30)
15
13
20

(13)
(16)
(18)
(13)
(36)


19
7
10
8
17
(21)
 
Obama
53.64 %
372

38.2
42.2
44.0
46.6
58.4

55.6
58.8
90.6
59.6
53.6

48.0
71.0
36.0
59.6
48.6

57.0
42.4
45.0
43.0
54.2

60.0
59.0
58.8
56.4
46.4

53.4
47.4
41.2
52.6
55.6

56.4
54.4
67.0
51.0
52.2

52.0
35.2
57.8
57.2
61.0

44.0
42.6
41.4
44.6
32.8

60.4
54.0
55.4
54.8
59.4
40.0
 
Obama
100.0 %
367.1

0.0
0.0
0.2
4.8
100.0

99.7
100.0
100.0
100.0
96.1

16.4
100.0
0.0
100.0
24.6

100.0
0.0
0.7
0.0
98.0

100.0
100.0
100.0
99.9
3.9

95.2
10.1
0.0
89.9
99.7

99.9
98.4
100.0
68.8
85.9

83.6
0.0
100.0
100.0
100.0

0.2
0.0
0.0
0.4
0.0

100.0
97.5
99.6
99.1
100.0
0.0
 
Percent

        











14.1

10.5



9.6





1.4





1.0

5.7
1.6

4.4



0.9

20.9
3.7

20.9












4.5

0.9

 
Rank

        











3

4



5





11





12

6
10

8



13

1
9

1












7

13

 
Final  Kerry
51.75 %
337

42.0
39.8
48.8
50.5
55.8

50.8
56.5
86.3
57.8
52.3

46.5
52.5
38.3
57.0
41.3

54.5
39.3
42.8
49.0
58.3

56.3
70.8
54.3
55.0
47.3

49.3
41.3
37.3
50.5
51.5

56.0
50.5
60.0
49.3
42.5

52.3
36.3
54.5
53.8
62.0

44.3
46.5
49.3
40.0
29.3

58.3
48.5
55.0
49.5
54.8
33.5
JK Unadj
52.51 %
337

42.1
41.6
44.9
45.7
60.9

50.7
63.4
91.9
61.9
51.4

42.3
58.5
32.7
57.0
40.7

51.2
37.7
40.2
44.0
56.6

60.3
66.6
55.0
56.4
49.8

49.3
38.2
37.6
53.7
57.8

58.0
53.6
65.5
49.7
35.2

54.3
33.8
53.0
55.5
63.3

46.3
36.5
43.5
42.3
28.9

68.1
50.3
57.7
40.5
52.6
33.3
Kerry
48.76 %
252

37.2
35.9
44.8
45.0
54.9

47.5
54.9
90.1
53.9
47.6

41.8
54.6
30.6
55.4
39.7

49.7
37.0
40.1
42.6
54.1

56.5
62.6
51.7
51.6
40.2

46.6
39.0
33.0
48.4
50.7

53.5
49.5
59.0
44.0
35.9

49.2
34.8
51.9
51.4
60.0

41.3
38.8
43.0
38.6
26.3

59.5
45.9
53.4
43.6
50.2
29.4

 
Exit Poll
0.75 %
  0  

0.14
1.84
(3.87)
(4.78)

5.17

(0.03)
6.92
5.69
4.10
(0.84)

(4.20)

6.03
(5.55)
(0.03)
(0.56)

(3.32)
(1.56)
(2.56)
(5.02)
(1.63)


4.01
(4.11)
0.71
1.42
2.57

0.05
(3.08)
0.32
3.22
6.25

1.96
3.14
5.48
0.48
(7.27)

2.02
(2.42)
(1.50)
1.74
1.28

2.02
(10.01)
(5.78)

2.32
(0.39)

9.83
1.75
2.71
(8.95)
(2.13)
(0.24)

 
Vote Cnt
( 3.0 ) %
(85)

(4.8)
(3.9)
(3.9)
(5.5)
(0.9)

(3.3)
(1.6)

3.8
(3.9)
(4.7)

(4.7)

2.1
(7.7)
(1.6)
(1.6)

(4.8)
(2.3)
(2.7)
(6.4)
(4.1)


0.2
(8.2)
(2.5)
(3.4)
(7.1)

(2.7)
(2.3)
(4.2)
(2.1)
(0.8)

(2.5)
(1.0)
(1.0)
(5.2)
(6.6)

(3.1)
(1.5)
(2.6)
(2.3)
(2.0)

(2.9)
(7.7)
(6.3)
(1.4)
(3.0)


1.3
(2.6)
(1.6)
(5.9)
(4.5)
(4.1)
 
   Final  Kerry  
1.89 %
  30.1  

(3.8)
2.5
(4.8)
(3.9)

2.7

4.9
2.3
4.3
1.8
1.4

1.5
18.5
(2.3)
2.6
7.4

2.5
3.2
2.3
(6.0)
(4.1)


3.8
(11.8)
4.6
1.4
(0.9)

4.2
6.2
4.0
2.1
4.1

0.4
3.9
7.0
1.8
9.7

(0.3)
(1.1)

3.3
3.5
(1.0)

(0.3)
(3.9)
(7.9)

4.6
3.6

2.2
5.5
0.4
5.3
4.7
6.5
 
Obama
11
120

AL
AK
AZ
AR
CA

CO*
CT
DC
DE
FL*

GA
HI
ID
IL
IN

IA*
KS
KY
LA
ME

MD
MA
MI
MN
MS

MO*
MT
NE
NV*
NH

NJ
NM*
NY
NC*
ND*

OH*
OK
OR
PA
RI

SC
SD
TN
TX
UT

VT
VA*
WA
WV*
WI
WY

 


The Election Model Final 18 National Pre-Election Polls (9RV, 9LV)
http://www.pollingreport.com/wh04gen.htm
   
 
Sample
Poll
 
Final Poll
 
75 % UVA Projected
 
5-Poll Moving Average
 
5-poll Moving Average, 2-party
   Election Model
   18 National Polls
    
    Harris
    Zogby
    Marist
    Econ
    TIPP
 
    CBS
    FOX
    Dem Cor
    Gallup
    NBC
 
    ABC
    ARG
    Pew
    Nwk
    ICR
 
    LAT
    Time
    AP
Date
Average

2-Nov
2-Nov
1-Nov
1-Nov
1-Nov

1-Nov
31-Oct
31-Oct
31-Oct
31-Oct

31-Oct
30-Oct
30-Oct
29-Oct
26-Oct

24-Oct
21-Oct
20-Oct
Size
 1720 

5508
1200
1166
2903
1284

1125
1400
1018
1866
1014

3511
1258
2408
1005
817

1698
803
976
Type


LV
LV
LV
RV
LV
 
RV
RV
LV
RV
LV
 
RV
LV
RV
RV
RV
 
RV
LV
LV
Kerry
 47.3 %

50
47
49
49
44
 
46
48
48
48
47
 
48
49
46
45
44
 
48
46
49
Bush
 46.9 %

47
48
48
45
45
 
47
45
47
46
48
 
47
48
45
48
46
 
47
51
46
 
Kerry
 50.90 %

51.5
50.0
50.5
52.8
51.5

50.5
52.5
51.0
51.8
50.0

51.0
50.5
52.0
49.5
50.8

51.0
47.5
52.0
Bush
 48.10 %

47.5
49.0
48.5
46.3
47.5

48.5
46.5
48.0
47.3
49.0

48.0
48.5
47.0
49.5
48.3

48.0
51.5
47.0
 
Kerry
 51.3 %

51.3
51.1
51.6
51.7
51.5

51.2
51.3
50.9
51.1
50.6

50.8
50.8
50.2
50.2
na
 
na
na
na
Bush
 47.8 %

47.8
48.0
47.5
47.4
47.6
 
47.9
47.8
48.2
48.0
48.4
 
48.3
48.3
48.9
48.9
na
 
na
na
na
 
Kerry
 51.8 % 

51.8
51.6
52.1
52.2
52.0

51.7
51.8
51.4
51.6
51.1

51.3
51.3
50.7
50.7
na
 
na
na
na
Bush
 48.2 % 

48.2
48.4
47.9
47.8
48.0
 
48.3
48.2
48.6
48.4
48.9
 
48.7
48.7
49.3
49.3
na
 
na
na
na
Diff
 3.6 % 

3.6
3.2
4.2
4.4
4.0

3.4
3.6
2.8
3.2
2.2

2.6
2.6
1.4
1.4
na
 
na
na
na



 







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leftynyc Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Oct-17-08 08:31 AM
Response to Original message
7. Check this link
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/bush_vs_kerry.html


It shows the RCP averages for 2004 - final and the weeks before election. Kerry was never ahead and actually pulled closer at the end.
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Alter Ego Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Oct-17-08 08:33 AM
Response to Original message
8. We were not this strong at this point in either 2000 or 2004.
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tiptoe Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Oct-18-08 09:12 AM
Response to Reply #8
38. Post#34 incl state-by-state comparison: Obama's Vote-Projected & Kerry's '04 Final Vote-Projected
See, too, the link provided within post #34 ("HERE") for an analysis...

"...based on the IM calculation method for WPD (all precincts are included).

There is a high probability that the states marked with an asterisk were stolen."




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kick-ass-bob Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Oct-17-08 08:36 AM
Response to Original message
9. Gore was behind so long
that they were talking about the possibility of Gore losing the popular vote but winning the Electoral College, when in "fact" the reverse happened.

Note the " " around fact ;)
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NewJeffCT Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Oct-17-08 10:09 AM
Response to Reply #9
26. I think Gore surged a few points over the last week to 10 days
if I recall. He had been consistenly behind the last few months, though.
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Deep13 Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Oct-17-08 08:36 AM
Response to Original message
10. About 180. nt
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saltpoint Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Oct-17-08 08:39 AM
Response to Original message
11. Kerry's numbers rose in the last hours of the race to a tie or near-tie.
The Campaigns & Elections website was free-access 4 years ago and was calling Bush based on their very accurate predictions grid --

-- until the last 24-48 hours, when their assessment found Kerry/Edwards the beneficiary of circumstances which could result in their election.

That was a significant insight because the editor of that site/magazine is a Republican.

And then wayward things began to happen in Ohio.

Ted Kennedy, late in the afternoon of election day, was on the networks congratulating all concerned over the Democratic victory. The inside word was that Kerry/Edwards had unseated Bush/Cheney.

Bush stole the election.
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ProSense Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Oct-17-08 09:08 AM
Response to Reply #11
19. Exactly. It's as if they're determined to justify the legitimacy of the 2000 and 2004 elections. n/t
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karynnj Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Oct-17-08 08:44 AM
Response to Original message
12. Kerry was behind at this point and starting to move ahead
Edited on Fri Oct-17-08 08:45 AM by karynnj
That momentum stopped when the OBL tape came out on the Friday before election.

This year is entirely different. Then more than half the respondents said the country was going in the right direction - now about 20% do. Generic Democrat has been far ahead of Generic Republican. As Obama has shown leadership (the Overseas trip, his handling of the financial crisis and the excellent debates) he has gained many of those who had previously had concerns about him, but who were preferred a Democrat. In 2004, Generic Democrat lost badly to Bush. For Kerry to win, he had to convince some people who were ok with Bush, that he would be better. This was a higher bar (though it doesn't seem so 4 years later with Bush disliked even by many Republicans - even 3 or 4 months later would have been enough to change the balance.)
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palintology Donating Member (252 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Oct-17-08 08:50 AM
Response to Original message
13. Did Bob Dole had any kind of a come back?
If I remember well ... he was well behind Clinton ?
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saltpoint Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Oct-17-08 08:55 AM
Response to Reply #13
14. In the last couple weeks of the campaign, the race "tightened" but
Dole never had the lead and Clinton was enough ahead that Dole really gained no traction.

A lot of races tighten toward the end but tend to break for the candidate winning in mid-October.


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scheming daemons Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Oct-17-08 08:55 AM
Response to Reply #13
16. Final polls had him 9 to 16 points down.... he lost by 9.
Edited on Fri Oct-17-08 08:56 AM by scheming daemons
A lot of "soft" Clinton supporters figured he had it in the bag and voted for Perot as a "protest".


Dole got 40%.... about what he was getting in polls....

Clinton got 49%.... and he was getting in the low 50s in the polls.
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iiibbb Donating Member (658 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Oct-17-08 08:59 AM
Response to Original message
17. Kerry was never ahead... maybe this will make you feel better.
http://www.electoral-vote.com/evp2008/Pres/ec_graph-2008.html



The graph above shows the current number of electoral votes for each candidate since Mar 22, The brown horizontal line shows the 270 electoral vote mark needed to be elected president. The gray vertical lines show the boundaries between the months.




The graph above shows the electoral votes again but omits the "barely" states. The electoral votes of a state only count in this graph if the candidate has a margin of 5% or more over his opponent.




The graph above shows the current number of electoral votes for each candidate since May 24, The brown horizontal line shows the 270 electoral vote mark needed to be elected president. The gray vertical lines show the boundaries between the months.




The graph above shows the electoral votes again but omits the "barely" states. The electoral votes of a state only count in this graph if the candidate has a margin of 5% or more over his opponent.
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Fluffdaddy Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Oct-17-08 09:15 AM
Response to Reply #17
21. Thanks. It makes me feel better. I don't know how I'm going to make it these last few weeks
:popcorn:
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iiibbb Donating Member (658 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Oct-17-08 09:38 AM
Response to Reply #21
22. Oh... I wish the election were tomorrow... but this election is nothing like Kerry or Gore.
Edited on Fri Oct-17-08 09:40 AM by iiibbb
I'm almost glad Kerry didn't win because I think this meltdown may have been inevitable by 2004... he would've been blamed.

I wish I could have my vote in 2000 back.
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politicasista Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Oct-17-08 11:18 AM
Response to Reply #22
33. Yep. Let's diss two good, decent men
Edited on Fri Oct-17-08 11:23 AM by politicasista
one of them his best surrogate helps Obama's cause. Not.

I wished I could have voted in 2000. 2004 was my first election. 2008 will be my second.

I understand you feel that Kerry would have been blamed but tell that to Katrina victims, people that are hurting due to the economic hardship and military families. More of them would have been better off in a Gore or Kerry Administration.

I am sure Obama feels the same way. Thankfully, he listens to both Gore and Kerry. And why it isn't respected more, I don't know.
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demodonkey Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Oct-18-08 09:46 AM
Response to Reply #33
44. Kerry is decent but he CAPITULATED -- while some were still standing in line in OH trying to vote.

He should have fought harder for every vote. At the very least the Help America Vote Act (Help Americas Vendors Act?) should -- and could -- have been amended and improved in time for this election. Our "fair and accurate" elections are still very much at risk.

And Obama (and all of us) better pay attention.

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tiptoe Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Oct-18-08 09:31 AM
Response to Reply #17
39. Kerry *was* ahead, 3-4% PRE-elec'n & same margin POST-elect exit polls...FINAL '04 EP a fraud,
Edited on Sat Oct-18-08 09:35 AM by tiptoe


because based on having been 'forced' to match a fraudulent recorded vote-count.


See post #34 for analysis, graphs, links to polls, plus a comparison of how '08 Obama currently compares to '04 Kerry's Final Vote-Projection, state-by-state.






 








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Name removed Donating Member (0 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Oct-17-08 09:04 AM
Response to Original message
18. Deleted message
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Name removed Donating Member (0 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Oct-17-08 09:12 AM
Response to Reply #18
20. Deleted sub-thread
Sub-thread removed by moderator. Click here to review the message board rules.
 
blm Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Oct-17-08 10:11 AM
Response to Original message
27. You ARE AWARE that this is postKatrina, postIraqCivilWar, and postRecordHomeforeclosure election?
And Dean's DNC has strengthened party infrastructure in states that had been collapsed by previous chairs?

Gore and Kerry won. The RNC stole those elections for Bush and prior DNC chairs sat on their hands for their terms and LET THEM DO IT.

This DNC will get far more of our Dem votes counted. Obama will be president.
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bullwinkle428 Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Oct-17-08 10:23 AM
Response to Original message
29. Between the exit polls and the release of the "official vote tallies"!
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WI_DEM Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Oct-17-08 10:25 AM
Response to Original message
30. Actually it was Gore who made a late surge. Gallup tracking had Bush up by 7 on 10/29/00
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ieoeja Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Oct-17-08 10:33 AM
Response to Reply #30
32. And his surge came after switching campaign managers to ... William Daley.

While Obama has never been part of the Daley machine, in this election he has employed the same team that William Daley used while managing Gore's comeback.


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scheming daemons Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Oct-18-08 09:46 AM
Response to Reply #32
43. No... he surge came after and because of Bush's DUI scandal breaking
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lizzieforkerry Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Oct-17-08 10:29 AM
Response to Original message
31. About 20 minutes after they locked the doors in Warren County, OH
Edited on Fri Oct-17-08 10:32 AM by lizzieforkerry
NEVER FORGET!! Anyone remember the :tinfoilhat: theory that one of the Bush twins was wearing green shoes during that weird "let's let the press in to see the Pres watch the returns". Jenna had on awful green shoes and people thought it was a sign to let the stealing begin. After that aired, it was down hill, and then they locked the vote counting in Ohio.
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crossroads Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Oct-17-08 08:22 PM
Response to Original message
35. Neither 'slipped' - do the research ~the elections were 'stolen' !
Methinks this is another one of those 'concerned' posts that are only meant to instill doubt! Instilling doubt is like putting poison in the community well! Relax and get a grip on yourself!
:eyes:
CR
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GoesTo11 Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Oct-18-08 09:34 AM
Response to Original message
40. Obama said it's no time for complacency
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demodonkey Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Oct-18-08 09:40 AM
Response to Reply #40
41. Absolutely. DO. NOT. GET. COMPLACENT!

There are plenty of ways left to swing / rig / steal this election. DO. NOT. GET. COMPLACENT. Or you may yet get Pres. McCain or worse eventually Pres. Palin.

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