THE DAILY POLL FIX: Recap of Today's Polls and Where the Race Stands

[MadBadger]

Here are the polls out for today

I'm not going to be paying any attention to RCP's average for the national race because they have a selective way of choosing the polls to include that I find bullshit, so instead I've created my own average to accompany Pollster's

National Polls

Kos/R2K: Obama 52(-1), McCain 40(unchanged)
Rasmussen: Obama 50(-1), McCain 45(unchanged)
Hotline: Obama 48(-1), McCain 42(+1)
Zomby: Obama 48(-1), McCain 44(+1)
GWU: Obama 51(unchanged), McCain 43(+1)
Gallup: Obama 51(+1), McCain 41(-2)
ABC/WaPo: Obama 53(+3), McCain 43(-3)
USA Today/Gallup: Obama 51(+5), McCain 44(-6)
Democracy Corps: Obama 50(+2), McCain 40(-5)

Pollster Average: Obama 50.0(+.6), McCain 42(-.9)

HNMNF Average: 50.0(+.6), McCain 42.2(-1.1)

State Polls

Pennsylvania
Morning Call: Obama 51(+1), McCain 38(unchanged)
Marist: Obama 53(+4), McCain 41(-3)
RCP Average: Obama 53.4, McCain 40.0
This isnt even a swing state anymore

Ohio
Fox/Rasmussen: Obama 49(+2), McCain 47(-1)
Marist: Obama 49(+2), McCain 45(unchanged)
RCP Average: Obama 48.8, McCain 45.6

Oregon
SUSA: Obama 57(+5), McCain 40(-1)

New York
SUSA: Obama 64(+7), McCain 31(-7)

New Jersey
SUSA: Obama 55(+2), McCain 40(-3)

Georgia
SUSA: McCain 51(-1), Obama 43(-1)

Missouri
SUSA: Obama 51(+5), McCain 43(-4)
Fox/Rasmussen: Obama 50(unchanged), McCain 47(unchanged)
Close, but Obama appears to have taken a small lead here
RCP Average: Obama 49.0, McCain 46.8 (ARG Poll used)

Florida
Fox/Rasmussen: Obama 51(-1), McCain 46(-1)
RCP Average: Obama 50, McCain 45

Virginia
Fox/Rasmussen: Obama 50(unchanged), McCain 47(-1)
RCP Average: Obama 50.6, McCain 44.1
This is one of the only pollsters to really show this race still very close

North Carolina
Fox/Rasmussen: Obama 48, McCain 48
RCP Average: Obama 47.8, McCain 46.8
PPP will have a poll for this state tomorrow

North Dakota
Forum Poll: Obama 45, McCain 43
I think Obama can win this state, though others say this is an outlier...we will see.

My Electoral Map

Based on recent polling, I am moving North Dakota to lean McCain, instead of solid McCain, even though I think of it really as a tossup. I have moved Missouri out of tossup to lean Obama as well.



http://tpmelectioncentral.talkingpointsmemo.com/polltracker/

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2008/latestpolls/index.html

http://www.pollster.com/polls/us/08-us-pres-ge-mvo.php

[MadBadger]

1. .

[gratefultobelib]

2. I love that blue MO!!

[aaaaaa5a]

3. Thank you!

I think the key news of the day are the polls out of MO. SUSA had an 8 point lead for Obama. When I saw it, it looked like an outlier. But later tonight it was backed up when RAS came in with a 5 point lead for Obama.


Clearly, despite all the talk over the weekend of tightening numbers, (even by Gallup themselves) Obama had a huge single day number (Sunday) to move the Gallup tracking poll 3 points in one day. Tomorrows number will be interesting.


Tuesday's Zogby number (yes I know Zogby has been terrible this year, LOL) will be 49-43. McCain's slight uptick in the Zogby poll is gone.

[MadBadger]

7. Fox has Obama up 3 in Missouri I believe

Im more open to these real zogby polls, but they have been wrong so often, that i dont think i can trust them.

[occe]

4. Great post nt

[Quixote1818]

5. West Virginia and North Dakota are blue too. nt

[MadBadger]

9. I think North Dakota may be blue, but I'll wait on another poll, and I dont trust ARG (WV)

[aaaaaa5a]

6. Question???

It looks like all of the Kerry states have come home with the exception of MN. I have seen polls all over the place for the month of October. Personally, I think it's safe for Obama. But 1 or 2 really good polls from there would be nice.


Do you know when there will be new polls out of Minnesota?

[MadBadger]

8. Um, how bout the latest poll, the star tribune which has him up 18?

[aaaaaa5a]

10. That's good news!

Here are the latest polls out of Minnesota


Rasmussen 10/07 - 10/07 500 LV 52 45 Obama +7


ARG 10/04 - 10/07 600 LV 47 46 Obama +1


Minn. Pub. Radio 10/03 - 10/05 418 LV 54 40 Obama +14


Star Tribune 09/30 - 10/02 1084 LV 55 37 Obama +18


SurveyUSA 09/30 - 10/01 725 LV 46 47 McCain +1


CNN/Time 09/28 - 09/30 849 LV 54 43 Obama +11



The numbers are very volatile. Of course they still look rather good. I just wish they were as consistent as the numbers out of PA.


Hey, it s a funny year! Who knew the data out of PA would be stronger than the data out of WI and MN, 3 weeks before the election!