actforvictory.org
One of the advantages Kerry has over recent Democratic campaigns is he has rough parity when it comes to money. A very sharp and focused ad campaign will be one of the keys to winning. I hope they put some serious thought into their approach -- if they get the ads wrong, he's a goner, no question about it. But ads are only one piece of the puzzle.
As far as dirty politics goes -- I hope it isn't necessary to resort to lies in order to win. If that's the only way, then I'll be moving to New Zealand in the future. One of the advantages that progressives have over the right wing is that progressive policies are actually better for the country on the whole -- we shouldn't have to resort to lying in order to win.
That doesn't mean that we can't go "negative." Negative in the sense that we forcefully point out the Bush administrations serious flaws and dangers to the country. I believe Kerry blew a significant opportunity to raise legitimate credibility issues with Bush/Cheney during the Democratic convention. Thousands of reporters were there, waiting to act in their capacity as lazy scribes to pass his message on, and he didn't take advantage of it. Bush came out unscathed. At this point, the American public should have grave doubts about the man, yet his leadership positives have bounced up nicely throughout August. If the grave doubts about Bush had been planted before the Swift Boat nonsense, more people would have doubted the attacks to begin with, and Bush would have been less likely to directly benefit from damage to Kerry.
The attacks should focus on Bush's lack of judgment, stubbornness in the face of failing policies, his superficiality, his manipulation of the American public, mendacity, etc. Much of this relates directly to his war on terror, which is supposed to be his strong suit, but is actually one of his greatest weaknesses. We all know this, but the general public doesn't because they don't follow politics daily, and the media are terrible at covering out complex stories. Anyway, just as Kerry turned his swift boat into the enemy, he should turn his attack at Bush's perceived greatest strengths -- war on terror and Bush's supposed character.
In terms of policy initiatives, Kerry again missed a great opportunity to contrast his health care proposals to those of Bush. The health care issue works to his advantage in so many ways. By one analysis, I believe Kerry's plan would provide coverage to around 22 to 25 million uninsured, while Bush's would only cover an additional 2 million. A news story just today said the top issue among undecided Catholics is health care. This is a key demographic in the Midwestern battleground states. Healthcare is key to most voters, even those who have coverage. Businesses are really hurting because of rising healthcare costs, and that is one of the key reasons cited for outsourcing and the slowness in hiring full-time workers.
Although swing voters are important, I believe the Bush camp will torque up the negativity of the campaign to greater depths than ever seen before (if the race stays tight and they're concerned about a risk of losing). Kerry is expected to follow suit on the negative side. If the 2004 campaign becomes a disgusting mess, it will suppress the turnout among undecided voters, which will work to Bush's favor (yet another reason Bush wouldn't mind for the campaign to degenerate). Telling lies on Kerry's part will just play into Bush's hands. Swing voters would typically break in favor of the challenger in such a tight race against an incumbent -- jeez, after 4 years, if one can't decide in favor of Bush, there must be a significant problem in one's mind that isn't likely to be decided favorably for the incumbent on election morning.
Probably more important than swing voters is identifying and mobilizing unregistered voters who are sympathetic to you, but tend to be apolitical. There are millions more of them than swing voters. This is why America Coming Together and similar efforts are really key. Karl Rove understands this, and is working on getting the 4 million Evangelicals who didn't vote in 2000 to the polls this time around. If Kerry doesn't blow it, and the race is tight in the opinion polls on election day, then the side that does the best job getting new voters to the polls will most likely win. This will be the result of money (which both sides have) and very hard work by thousands of volunteers. This is an area where we can make a difference - check out
America Coming Together's work, if you are unfamiliar with it. The Democratic party, Move On and Working Assets are also involved in get-out-the-vote efforts.