Intrade: "Barring something radical, Obama has it in the bag."

[Chichiri]

And by "something radical," they don't mean Ayers -- they mean something with a bigger effect than the economy happening in the next four weeks.


---BEGIN---

As of Monday afternoon, Intraders give Obama the edge in states carrying 338 electoral votes. He could lose 69 of those and still win. For example Intrade has FL, VA, OH, NV as the most vulnerable blue states right now.

They could all turn red and Obama still wins.

Intrade markets are historically 100% predictive in US elections when the prices are higher than 70 or lower than 30. If we take the states currently in that range, and add in Colorado, which is at 69 for Obama, we get 44 states that, given the level of volatility and the time left, are unlikely to turn. From those states, Obama controls 273 electoral votes to 163 for McCain (Karl Rove himself pointed this out today).

As Obama needs 269 to win, barring something radical, Obama has it in the bag.

And by the way: of the other 7 states, Obama leads in electoral votes 65-37.

---END---

(emphasis added)

https://www.intrade.com/jsp/intrade/misc/blog/?initialBlogId=stumpy_1 -- Other great stuff here.

Incidentally, that thing about being 100% predictive when prices are higher than 70? As of this writing (11:33 PM central), Obama is at 68.9.


UPDATE 11:39pm: As of right now, Colorado is at 70.

[BrklynLiberal]

1. I am afraid that the repukes are desperate enough to pull something "radical"

[HughMoran]

2. Famous last words

Pardon me for being cynical after 8 years of an utter Moron in Chief.

[Diane R]

3. I hate this. We just can't count those chickens yet. Remember 2000 and 2004???

[Chichiri]

4. Intrade correctly predicted the Chimp would win 2004.

I don't believe it existed in 2000.

[grytpype]

5. Yes, but Gore and Kerry were not NEARLY so far ahead at this point.

McCain will be lucky to avoid an embarrassing landslide!

[Chichiri]

6. Did Intrade exist in 2000? Or are you just being general?

It's late. I'm confuzzled. :hi:

[grytpype]

8. I'm talking about polls.

[Chichiri]

9. Ah so.

:hi:

[Chichiri]

7. See update -- Colorado went up to 70 since that article was written.

I'd say it's just about in the bag.

[stevedeshazer]

10. Good stuff.

I check the Intrade site every morning.

I trust the money more than the polls because the money people have skin in the game.

[aaaaaa5a]

11. Amazing...

We are now calling FL, VA, OH, and NV vulnerable blue states? I love it!

[FreeState]

12. K&R n/t