I still can't believe it--we score ONE more formerly red swing state and we win?!

[Bicoastal]

But them's the facts. Let's assume Obama keeps all the Kerry States, Iowa, and New Mexico; he starts off with 264 solid blue votes while McCain has 164 solid red votes. At that point...

If we flip ONLY Florida: We win by 44.
..........................Ohio: We win by 30.
...........North Carolina: We win by 20.
.......................Virgina: We win by 16.
......................Missouri: We win by 12.
.......................Indiana: We win by 12.
......................Colorado: We win by 8.
......................Nevada: We TIE at 269--and then a Democratic House gives us the win.

But remember that at AT NO POINT in the last few weeks or so has Obama failed to carry more than one of these states in the polls. McCain, by contrast, has to win them ALL--and AT NO POINT in the last few weeks has he carried all eight states.

We've got a month to go, and I'm feeling pretty damn good right now.

[Bicoastal]

1. bump--kick this if you're as excited as I am!

[Liberal_in_LA]

2. Excited but not taking anything for granted.

[nyhuskyfan]

4. How's Wisconsin looking?

That race has been a little tighter than I would feel comfortable with. It could offset the gains in Iowa and New Mexico.

[jimlup]

23. Yes, I've been watching Wisconsin with a nervous eye too!

The latest poll that I saw looked fairly reasonable but it wasn't "safe" for sure!

I don't trust CNN's poll numbers but here is what they currently have for Wisconsin:

http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2008/map/polling/

[redwitch]

8. It is going to be glorious!

:-)

[quantass]

3. Being Canadian, even i'm excited by all of this!!

[CitizenLeft]

5. so we most hold all the Kerry states, and win ONE red state...

...and Obama's ahead in all of the Kerry states... while McCain must win ALL of those swing states to win, and he's only ahead in 1 or 2 of them, and those by less than 4 points.

I'm not gonna make it these next 30 days!

[Bicoastal]

7. Yes, well, at this point we should thank our lucky stars that Obama got NM and IA on board early.

Things wouldn't be nearly so rosy if we weren't a lock in those two states. Those 12 votes go a long way.

[CitizenLeft]

18. I thank them every day!

:)

[WillyT]

6. Big K & R !!!

:kick:

[tomp]

9. how about we wait until the votes are tallied?

they're going to try to steal his one , too.

[banjosareunderrated]

10. A big hug to everyone campaigning...

Anyone getting out the vote for Obama, in any state, deserves thanks. But all those folks working in CO, VA, NC, NM, and NV deserve a tremendous thank you from all of us! You guys are doing AWESOME work flipping the script! :toast:

[BumRushDaShow]

11. Instead of calling for the "Kerry states", we should call for Obama keeping the "Gore states"

because those are what seem pretty consistent for Obama at this point... where the Gore states already include Iowa and New Mexico. Gore needed that one more state to win and the SCOTUS took Florida away from him.

[bunnies]

12. NH.

Thats all Gore needed and the last 8 years would have been avoided. I'll never forgive my state for that.

[regnaD kciN]

21. True, but...

...that was in 2000, before the latest census and redistricting, which changed the allocation of EVs. The Gore states plus NH wouldn't be enough to win this year.

[jesus_of_suburbia]

13. We feel like we are going to win now, so let's go for a blowout! Don't stop... EVER.

We feel like we are going to win now, so let's go for a blowout!

I'm very hopeful, but we must pretend like we are behind!

BUT I'm FEELING DAMN GOOD TOO, lol!

[reggie the dog]

14. Nevada we win

plus one for Omaha, Nebraska, and we win with 270.

[Froward69]

15. counting Eggs and Chickens...

KEEP WORKING! nose to the grindstone and all that...

Strides are fine but do not become complacent we have 31 days to go...

[crossroads]

16. Great news... K&R nt

[donco]

17. You can put the showme(Mo) in Obamas camp nt

[David Zephyr]

19. Best electoral breakdown to date at the DU.

The Kerry base is solid as is Iowa and New Mexico. So I like your premise and I like how you posted this.

Thanks and an enthusiastic K&R.

[regnaD kciN]

20. As I pointed out earlier...

......................Nevada: We TIE at 269--and then a Democratic House gives us the win.

...this is not a safe assumption, because Maine allocates some of its EVs by congressional district. While Maine as a whole is safely blue, the upstate, rural CD2 is right in McCain/Palin's demographic. So, if we get Nevada and nothing else, but the Republicans win Maine CD2, then McCain wins 270-268.

Right now, I'd say that's just about McCain's best hope for victory...which is why we can't allow it to get that close.

[Bicoastal]

24. Sure, but I haven't seen any scenario where we win Nevada without winning Colorado.

A tie is very, VERY unlikely this time around. Certain states seem tied to others--if we win Indiana, we'll have already won Ohio. If we win North Carolina, we'll have already won Virginia.

Don't ask me why that is, but it seems to hold.

[NOLALady]

22. I cannot exhale until

the zaftig lady sings.

[nolabels]

27. We must win all fifty, let's go team, let's go, rah rah rah, let's go ..........

woohoo, let's go, ain't no stopping us now :woohoo:

[MarthaMyDear]

25. Awesome news, Bicoastal!

Thanks for sharing these numbers...definitely makes me pretty darn happy! :~)

[Motown_Johnny]

26. I think your math is off a little.. FL is worth 27 EV so I don't see how you get us to a 44 EV win

with it.

From what I see from your count you already have us above 270 without any of the states you listed flipping




http://www.slate.com/id/2195956/


EDIT to add


if you use the count from that link (Slate) and add just New Hampshire and Minnesota, both of which Kerry won and are listed here as battlegrounds, then we we would already be at 271

[Bicoastal]

29. Not sure what you mean...

...we can NOT get to 271 with just the "Kerry States" (including New Hampshire and Minnesota) and New Mexico and Iowa.

Add up all the Dark Blue States on your map (182) and Light Blue States (68), and you end up with 250 EV. Add New Hampshire (4) and Minnesota (10) which are listed elsewhere as Light Blue, and you end up with only 264.

We NEED one more swing state--and I would bet on this being Virginia, Colorado, or both. Otherwise, we lose 264 to 274 to McCain

[Motown_Johnny]

30. My bad

that 10 looked like an 18 to me (MN)



I'll go get my glasses and try this again......




I suppose I could edit my previous post.. again... but why bother? I was wrong.


KK add CO to that and then we win, with that count. I am a little more conservative in my count and only see 239 safe EV for us right now. But still looking forward to a win in November

[krawhitham]

28. McShit needs 8 out of 8 states to win

NV, CO, MO, IN, OH, VA, NC, FL

If Obama get one he is the next President

McPOW need to spends time and money in all 8 down the stretch while all Obama really has to do is pick one and go full tilt

[NOLALady]

31. Local talk radio

going on about how this will probably be the first time in about 50 years that Louisiana will support the loser. Some callers said they haven't given up hope of a Repub victory. They are so pathetic. The poorest state in the country practically bragging about how they will support the candidate who will hurt this state as well as the country.

We had a local election today. Hurricane Ike pushed back the election date which also pushed back the runoff date. There wasn't a clear winner so the runoff will be Nov. 4th. They are having fits. They are complaining about a possible Obama effect. They fear Obama supporters will shoo in Democrats and/or minorities in local races, though they don't believe Obama can carry the state.

We may not be able to deliver Louisiana, but we'll give em hell trying.

[milkyway]

32. A tie is not the slam-dunk in the House that it might seem to be. See Charlie Cook's

article at National Journal:

http://www.nationaljournal.com/njmagazine/cr_20081004_5889.php.

As you say, with the two polls out of New Hamphire released the other day showing Obama above the national polling at +10 and +12, it looks like Obama is likely to win all Kerry states, with Iowa a certainty and NM a near certainty. That leaves McCain having to win all the states you mentioned.

Obviously, McCain needs a big shift back to him in the polls, but even if that happens, Obama can win by allocating his resources--money and campaign events--to a couple of states in the last stages of the campaign. We could see a cash-disadvantaged McCain chasing Obama around the country, trying to keep his fingers in all the holes in the dyke, franticly wondering where Obama might attack next.

[crankychatter]

33. plainly and clearly stated tyvm.... two smiling people in THIS house right now

well said

k/r