Race Rating Change in New Mexico: Now Leaning Towards Obama
By Marie Horrigan, CQ Staff
Oct. 3, 2008 – 2:21 p.m.
Trends in recent polling on New Mexico indicate momentum is on Democrat Barack Obama ’s side against Republican John McCain , leading CQ Politics to change our rating on the presidential election there from No Clear Favorite to Leans Democratic.
A Rasmussen survey released Thursday indicated that Obama leads McCain 49 percent to 44 percent, a major slide for McCain from his 2-point lead in the state in a Rasmussen poll one month ago. The margin of error was 4 percent.
And, a Survey USA poll released Wednesday had a wider margin, showing Obama with 52 percent to McCain’s 44 percent. The margin of error was 3.8 percent.
Rasmussen found that Obama’s major strength was among the state’s large Hispanic population, which trends Democratic. New Mexico has the highest percentage of Hispanics in the country. Forty-two percent of New Mexico residents are Hispanic, more than three times the national average. They constitute a vital voting bloc in a state that has seen some of the tightest margins in presidential elections over the past two races, when President Bush won by 0.8 percent in 2004 and Democrat Al Gore won by 0.1 percent in 2000.
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