Biden won big, but Palin had a good night

[flowomo]

I won't make many friends here at DU with my weekly newspaper column published today, but this is how I saw it.

Also available online at:

http://cumberlink.com/articles/2008/10/03/opinion/columns/rich_lewis/doc48e61cabaf82f503301551.txt

***

Good night for Palin, better for Biden
By Rich Lewis, Sentinel Columnist, October 3, 2008
Last updated: Friday, October 3, 2008 9:25 AM EDT

Sarah Palin did not win the election in last night’s vice-presidential debate, but she almost certainly saved her own political career.

And that means it was a very good night for her.

Recent interviews with Charles Gibson and Katie Couric had left Palin teetering on the edge of becoming a national joke. She was taking a brutal and well-deserved beating at the hands of comics, most notably Tina Fey and the writers for “Saturday Night Live.”

Many people expected Palin to fall over that edge last night — to irretrievably seal her reputation as an airheaded ditz, laughably unqualified to hold political office at any level.

It didn’t happen. Though inconsistent, Palin performed well. She was comfortable at the podium, skilled at maneuvering the discussion onto her ground, capable of expressing her answers in clear and sometimes moving language and able on occasion to project a very appealing “plain folks” charm.

In short, not at all stupid.

She clearly “lost” the debate to Joe Biden because she was stuck defending an increasingly indefensible running mate and his largely indefensible positions.

She also lost because Biden had a terrific night, matching her across the board in both style and substance and easily overwhelming her on a number of issues by virtue of his greater political experience and substantially more specific policy proposals.

Nonetheless, Biden and Palin together staged a debate vastly superior to last week’s somewhat boring and incoherent presidential debate between John McCain and Barack Obama. Moderator Gwen Ifill gets a lot of credit for that as well. Her questions covered a wide range of topics, were fairly posed and did not serve up the usual slimy irrelevancies. Not a single mention of churches, pigs or flag pins, no coy “gotchas.”

The great fear among Republicans was that Palin would melt down and outright lose the election during the debate, and I am sure they are greatly relieved that she did not.

But all she did was stabilize the ticket’s position — keep it from losing ground. That can’t be any real comfort to them, because the McCain-Palin ticket is now seriously behind Obama-Biden. Every major poll shows the two Democrats pulling away in key state after key state (including Pennsylvania by 8 to 15 points). They are ahead, mostly way ahead, in all the states won by John Kerry, and ahead, if only slightly in some cases, in a clutch of states that went Republican in 2004 — including Ohio, Florida, Colorado, Iowa, Virginia, North Carolina, New Mexico and Nevada.

Just yesterday we learned that McCain has given up on Michigan, once considered a “battleground” state that many believed McCain could switch from blue to red.

Fivethirtyeight.com, which regular readers know is a site that I respect for its careful methodology and complete transparency, gives Obama an 84 percent chance of winning the election and projects him winning 331 electoral votes to McCain’s 206. It probably won’t be that big a blowout, though it could be. Nonetheless, barring a dramatic development in the next 30 days, the Democrats are headed toward a victory.

But Palin was at risk of losing more than a presidential election last night. She was in serious danger of losing her entire political career. Her gaffes had caused her national approval ratings to slip significantly in the past few weeks, both nationally and in key states (again, including Pennsylvania). Even Alaska, her home state, where she once enjoyed an 80 percent approval rating, was turning against her. The headline on an AP story by Matt Volz this week couldn’t have been more alarming: “Alaskans cringe after month of listening to Palin.”

“I’m very hopeful that she doesn’t embarrass us worse than she already has,” Mark Barnhill, a 53-year-old building inspector from Anchorage, told Volz ahead of the debate.

“Most” Alaskans, Volz wrote, “are surprised at how their usually confident governor has foundered in interviews, giving rambling answers that... either go against their own recollections or end up lampooned in ‘Saturday Night Live’ skits and by the hosts of late-night talk shows.”

Had Palin self-destructed during the debate, and the ticket gone on to lose the election, she would have been permanently marked as a failed politician — an everlasting icon of ineptitude. The new and worse Dan Quayle.

With her performance last night, Palin ensured that, even if McCain loses in November, she will be a force in Alaskan and national politics for years to come. Only 44, I expect that she will eventually run for and win a U.S. Senate seat and will be among the GOP’s brightest stars as the party rebuilds from the impending loss of the White House and a string of Senate seats. She will do some traveling abroad, read more widely, fill those gaping holes in her knowledge of world and national affairs. Next time, she will be ready.

And the point is, there will now be a next time.

The audience for last night’s debate was expected to be huge — and many of those millions and millions of viewers tuned in mostly or even entirely to see Palin. It was her one post-convention showcase moment in the campaign.

They didn’t see a fool or a clown. They saw a confident, competent, fluent and engaging politician hold her own against a very powerful opponent. Not perfect, but not Yukon Barbie either.

No, she didn’t win the debate; she won’t win the election.

But she won back something very valuable nonetheless.

Her dignity.

***
Rich Lewis’ e-mail address is: [email protected]

[TwilightGardener]

1. OK, you like actresses. You believe the "West Wing" character was real. Good for you.

[seabeyond]

2. she turned off 80% of the women. there is a reason political women and career women

geeeezus, waitresses dont behave like this with other women. we dont like it.

i am not agreeing with your post.

[calimary]

10. I was really surprised, watching CNN, to see the audience reaction lines that

ran along the bottom of the screen like an EKG. Women weren't buying. Men were, for the most part. I certainly wasn't convinced.

My take on it, for whatever it's worth, was similar. It was more or less a draw, Biden won it I think, but so did sarah - IN THAT she didn't fall on her face. Funny enough, tucker carlson on MSNBC just said that would have been nearly impossible (for her to do worse than she has been doing) - would have defied the laws of physics.

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=132x7296429

[ShortnFiery]

3. What dignity? She shames every serious and intelligent woman.

:puke:

[Name removed]

4. Deleted message

Message removed by moderator. Click here to review the message board rules.

[flowomo]

11. now, now... fair comment doesn't include calling me an asshole...

and neither do the DU rules.

[sfam]

6. Not true. She held herself up just fine considering there were no follow-ups. She didn't win but..

She didn't look like a Yukon Barbie in the wrong toy box. I agree completely with the OP - Biden won but Palin got her dignity back.

[SoonerPride]

8. You thought it was dignified to wink and flirt on TV for a serious job in serious times?

Really?

I was embarrassed for her.

Without substance she relied on her sex appeal to sway hearts, but not minds.

That is the refuge of scoundrels and idiots.

[sfam]

18. Serious? No, but she looked VERY different from the Couric Interviews...

Even you must admit that. We might not like or agree with the style, but halfway through we weren't looking for a pool of drool on her podium. She acquitted herself far better than we could have anticipated. I fully agree that it was in large part due to no follow-ups being asked (or being allowed), but that's a different issue.

[ShortnFiery]

12. I can't tell by your profile if you are a woman or a man. But as a woman, I was SICKENED at the

overt "flirting" with the audience.

Flirting is what you do to win "a beauty contest" not intellectually win a serious debate. :thumbsdown:

[sfam]

22. Well again, a lot of this had to do with expectations. Coming into this, most of us...

doubted she even knew the names of the major newspapers and magazines. This still might be true, but it didn't show last night. Again, her style didn't work for me at all, but I wouldn't be surprised if all that winking and folksy shit did work for some. I suspect the base liked it, but independents did not.

And I doubt everyone is in agreement that you win a debate based on intellect. If so, Mondale would have trounced Reagan (as would Carter, for that matter), and Gore would have destroyed Bush. Clearly a good bit of the electorate is looking for something other than intellect. Palin went to her strengths and did a serviceable job of trying to cover up her weaknesses.

That said, while she got her dignity back, I don't think she convinced independents (or Dems for that matter) that she's qualified to be VP.

[VWolf]

31. Unfortunately, far too many

in this country look at everything as a beauty contest.

Anti-intellectualism (if such a word exists) runs rampant in America.

[bdamomma]

17. I was not impressed.

alot of us think more highly of ourselves and our ideals.

[SoonerPride]

5. I thought he rambling nonsensical responses were pathetic.

You can advocate for a "conservative" world view and still do it in complete sentences without jargon, winks, folksisms and rambling bullshit.

I swear some of her responses gave me a headache. I couldn't even make sense of where she was trying to go or what point she was TRYING to make.

It was pathetic.

I strongly disagree with your assessment.

[MarjorieG]

7. Fluent? by not answering the questions in never-ending sentences?

[NYCGirl]

9. My blessing to everyone: May you go through life with everyone's expectations

for you as low as they were for Palin.

[EstimatedProphet]

13. You're right, you won't win any friends

Does it not bother you at all that she proved last night that she has no idea of what the Vice President is for? That she doesn't remember basic Civics lessons? Does it even bother you that she spent the whole debate flirting with the camera? Where the fuck is the dignity in that?

[flowomo]

16. aww... does that mean you and I can't be friends?

n/t

[EstimatedProphet]

19. No, it means you should really explain your rationale better

Because what I see is that you've bought into the line that if Palin didn't flip out, or piss herself, or start clucking like a chicken and banging her head on the wall, then she's won. It ain't so. She didn't show an ounce of dignity last night, so how could she have gotten it back?

[flowomo]

23. time will show which of us is right...

She will run for a Senate seat; I think she'll win. You'll see her popping up all over the place in the next few years. The party will be proud to showcase her because she didn't shame them in the debate. Look, this isn't the first column I've written about Palin -- she isn't qualified to be VP, but she is not a fool (well, not by Republican standards anyway --and if she wants a future career in politics, that's all that matters).

[EstimatedProphet]

26. Well, OK, she might

It is possible that she's not going away, if we don't take the opportunity to point out to everyone that she' thinks Cheney is the shiznit. We really should do that. But no way no how did I see any dignity from her last night.

[seabeyond]

28. she is the same as kathleen harris. harris made it one term and was out

no.... i think she has already had her time

[flowomo]

30. interesting comparison....

many points of similarity between them. But I think Palin has vastly more ability than Harris. And a better "back story." She'll stick longer.

[seabeyond]

32. nope. n/t

[geminifemini]

14. My favorite comment of the night

ala Rachel Maddow:  I don't think I can take it anymore if
someone winks at me.

Palin's bachelor degree is in communications.  She's trained
to speak to the camera and has spent an inordinate time
watching herself in the mirror rehearsing her delivery.

If you think style is more than important than substance at
these critical times it's time for you to tune out and not
even vote.  This McPalin campaign is a cheesy poof diet for us
all.

I wonder sometimes if Condi told Mc "no".

[WI_DEM]

15. It's a good night for Palin because she was only mediocre instead of downright bad

She still didn't answer the questions and talked 100 miles per hour about nothing.

[flowomo]

20. agree on both points....

but that's true of most politicians. They'll let her stay in the club now because she showed she can be just like them.

[Union Thug]

21. She clearly had no grasp on any of the issues and tried to cover with

her cutesy (obnoxious) colloquialisms ad nauseum. That's a good night? Jesus, what would a bad night look like?

[Trajan]

24. She didnt poo herself ....

Otherwise; she proved she is unworthy of the highest office in government ....

Dignity, in her case, is fleeting .....

[TlalocW]

25. I don't know about dignity

I think she set herself up pretty well with certain segments of fiscal and religious conservatives to attempt to stay on the national level after Obama wins, but I don't think most of Americans think her act was particularly dignified.

TlalocW

[Cresent City Kid]

27. You're right but beware of spin

The Couric interview debacle(s) strangely helped Palin by letting her debate performance look good in comparison. If she had been quiet, THIS would have been her embarassing moment. She did not grasp issues at the level of a vice-president. Either by choice or ignorance, she did not even grasp the questions. Being folksy is fine for folks, but I expect a higher level of discourse and depth of knowledge from the vice-president.

We now know what the new line of attack will be from the Republicans: that Obama is only looking backwards and plying the blame game. Give me a break. Obama is one of the most forward thinking candidates in recent memory. When he talks about Bush, it's to remind us that McCain will govern the same way. The Republicans don't dispute Bush is bad, but they can't effectivley make the case that McCain will be different. All they have is "maverick." I hope the swing voters see through this thin facade.

[flowomo]

29. I don't see a "path to victory" for McCain-Palin...

I made that very clear in the column. She won't be, and doesn't remotely deserve to be, vice president. But she had a political future coming into this, had pretty much lost it (back to the carwash!) and now again can take a place in the future Republican lineup.

[Cresent City Kid]

36. I think I see what you're getting at

If you're saying that she salvaged a chance to remain a national political figure, and avoid a Dan Quayle type of obscurity, you may be right, but that is indicative of the idiocy of voters, not any brilliance on her part.

She's trying to lower the bar of expectation to the point where anyone can be president or vice-president. We already know what a Joe 6-pack presidency looks like. We can't let them get away with saying this has never been tried, a down home outsider bringing small town common sense to Washington and all that crap. The results would be what we have now.

[renate]

33. well, I think you're right

The discernment shown by the American voting public in the 2004 presidential election, in particular, did not impress me.

Bush has repeatedly "won" debates by exceeding expectations--I think it was reasonable to expect the bar to be set similarly low for Palin. I'm happy to see that the polls are proving me wrong.

Also, her fan base is not picky. If she looks cute and plucky up there, she's golden in their eyes. She succeeded in being cute and plucky, so they truly believe she won fair and square. She'll be back.

(I guess I differ from you a little bit in that I don't think she won back her dignity as much as she merely won back her political future. That winkin' and grinnin' wasn't dignified.)

[flowomo]

34. no quarrel with any of that...

I'm using "dignity" here as meaning "not a clown." And I mean she can hold her head up in her own party -- which is all you need to be a player in any party. There are a boatload of politicians on both sides who, to my standards, have no "dignity" -- but who are judged "dignified" by their fellow politicians. That all she needs to have a future.

[leftist.]

35. What's with everyone going out of their way to say she did well?

She surpassed the lowest expectations of any presidential or vice presidential candidate in modern history, at least since Dan Quayle. That does not constitute a win, a draw, or even a restoration of dignity. She was nervous, robotic, rude at times, and unprofessional. Flash polls show she turned uncommitted voters away.

I expect to die in a fire by the end of the day. Then at the end of the day I didn't die, but I did get lung cancer. Did I have a good night?

[Cresent City Kid]

37. Slippery slope

We don't dare redefine "marriage", but the meaning of "good" is now in question. "Good debate performance" = "not a disaster."

If the American public, and specifically the crucial swing voters allow this ratcheting down of presidential qualifications, we're in big trouble.

[leftist.]

40. One bit of evidence that tells me we are okay in that respect is ...

... that at this moment it seems like viewers - women especially - were turned off by the "folksy" attempt at charm. People just don't sound that way outside of the movie 'Fargo' and it worked against her as far as I can tell from reading around this morning.

[youthere]

38. Of course she had a good night..there was no where for her to go but up.

All she had to do was not accidentally hang herself with the mic cord, vomit on the moderator, or shit herself on stage and it would have been a good night for her....which, to her credit, she did none of those things. Way to Go Sarah!

[NashVegas]

39. I Think She Had An *Okay* Night.

For someone who is an neophyte to the national stage, and that was largely because she stuck to the infomercial-style presentation of her information.

Pundits say she brought her message straight to the people, instead of Biden & Ifill, but what she really did was over-concentrate on getting her message across to the exclusion of actual communication. You have to think about the people watching/listening, not the medium you're using to get to them, not the fact you're in front of a camera or a mic. It's what makes Madonna a bad movie actress - she's too conscious of it all. So ... okay, I says.