Something to feel good about: just 5 states

[Bucky]

Looking at www.realclearpolitics.com map http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/maps/obama_vs_mccain/?map=5 (hat tip to DCBob), it seems to me that the election is going to come down to five states: Missouri, Ohio, Virginia, North Carolina, and Florida. If Obama wins any one of those five, he's won the election.

Even if McCain wins Wisconsin and New Hampshire (pfff, like that's gonna happen), he would still need to win all five of these states to be elected. This scenario also includes McCain winning the toss up states of Indiana and Nevada because of their Republican track records. McCain would still need to go five for five (MO, OH, VA, NC, FL) to pull it off.

This election is Obama's to lose.

[grantcart]

1. you are correct -- also add Indiana and Nevada - although Nevada isn't enough by itself

For the first time in modern history a Republican candidate is spending money in Indiana.


It looks like Obama's Florida gambit is paying off and that McCain is having to keep his money for OH, IN, VA, NC and is just going to take his chances in Florida as it is too expensive for him to compete in.


edited to add

From NBC's Chuck Todd and Mark Murray
First Read has learned from TV ad-buying sources that the Republican National Committee's independent expenditure unit is active again. And it will launch a nearly $5 million advertising blitz beginning Tuesday in Wisconsin, Ohio, Michigan, Pennsylvania, Virginia, and -- get this -- Indiana.

This is the first evidence we've seen that the GOP is now targeting the Hoosier State, a state Bush won 60%-39% in 2004.


http://firstread.msnbc.msn.com/archive/2008/09/26/1453919.aspx

[featherman]

2. Nevada is going Dem this year... Kerry only lost by 21000 votes and we have

registered that many new Dems in Washoe County (Reno-Sparks) alone. Dems now have the edge state wide in registration for the first time. From what I have seen on the ground, we will be turning out more voters on election day than the other side. Nevada is looking good IMO

[grantcart]

3. have you heard that Obama is approaching CA supporters and organizing mass

trips for volunteers to come on the weekends in October?

[Emit]

5. Yes it is featherman!

I live here in Reno and I'm working hard to get the precincts in my district to turn blue. Voter reg, IDing, and preparing for GOTV. And, I thank all of the outstanding volunteers from CA -- I am SOOOOOOooooo impressed with their dedication, their energy and their tenacity - we love you all for helping NV turn Blue!

:hi:

P.S. Obama will be here in Reno next Tuesday, 9/30 - time and location not announced yet.

[abumbyanyothername]

4. I am generally (wildly) optimistic but . . .

in these "worst case" analyses, I think we need to factor in PA until the polling firms up a little more.