PA = CO, NM, and IA

[DangerDave921]

I still say PA is huge this November. Obama can realistically flip CO, NM, and IA for a total of 21 votes. This, plus the 2004 Kerry states (252), will put him over the top. BUT: if he can't hold PA, then he's right back to needing 18 more EV's. UT and VA would do it, but those are tricky.

McCain/Palin are going to be barnstorming PA for the next month.

[Jennicut]

1. Oh he will get PA. Maybe not Ohio but Pa definitely

All PA polls show him with a lead, I wouldn't worry about it.

[DangerDave921]

2. RCP still calls it a toss-up

Along with Minnesota and Wisconsin. Michigan seems more safe for Obama now.

But they also list FL, OH, and VA as toss-ups too. Such an interesting race!

[Jennicut]

3. Kerry won it by only 2.5% and that is Obama's overall lead there according to RCP

It will be really close but hopefully Obama will win it. Wisconsin, Minnesota, and Michigan were pretty close as well but Kerry still won them. We shall see. Hopefully race does not play a huge factor.

[Teaser]

4. They are wrong

I live in PA. It will go blue by 3%, exactly what the polls are saying.

[LynneSin]

6. I think it's gonna go even more than that

Just looking around the city of Wilmington DE, it's Obamamania here. I drive thru neighborhoods that are predominantly minority and you see Obama everywhere - signs, bumperstickers, tee-shirts you name it. Now if we have this kind of enthusiasm here 30 minutes south of Philly, can you imagine what it is like up in the city of brotherly love.

I say Obama garners major voter turnout in Philadelphia. And with the ex-Philly mayor as governor you won't see the voter shenanigans like they got stuck with in Cleveland (ie - enough voting machines for each voting place). And last major statewide election with Ed Rendell and Bob Casey Jr - both of those candidates got +18% of the vote.

I'm going out on a limb but I say Pennsylvania will go Obama by double digits.

[alcibiades_mystery]

8. Lived in Central PA for 8 years

I say 5%.

[LynneSin]

5. That's because they poll 'likely voters'

meaning they're leaving out large chunks of Philadelphia, Pittsburgh and other urban areas that do not have a reputation of voting every single election (those are your likely voters).

I've worked dozens of campaigns in Pennsylvania and every one of them is a 'tight race' but ultimately the democrats pull it out because they go crazy in the big 2 (Philly & Pitts) sending as many volunteers as they can get make sure we get the vote out in those cities. And thanks to the unions and especially the SEIU, we get volunteers into sections of Philly that Jane & Joe volunteer may not want to travel to.

[SheilaT]

7. This is why I so despise the whole Electoral College thing.

It means that in the end most people's votes don't count.

I am still considering not voting in the presidential column in November as a way of protesting that, but now that I live in New Mexico, which really is a swing state, I probably will mark the ballot for Obama.