Gallup: O 49 M 45

[Whalestoe]

http://www.gallup.com/poll/110554/Gallup-Daily-Obama-Leading-McCain-Points.aspx

[jefferson_dem]

1. Obama -1, McLame +1.

Typical, as Obama tends to poll worse on Sat-Sun in Gallup.

[Curtland1015]

2. I'm thinking about how last weeks news cycle ran, and my guess is...

...Obama will end the week at about 50-44 again. In the end the race will likely be very tight, but I think we'll keep our lead from now til the end.

[PermanentRevolution]

3. Lower than yesterday! PANIC!!!

Well, it would've been nice to hit 51% but I figured this was coming. As initial Wall Street fears began to ebb and the bailout was announced, the polls were inevitably going to narrow again. If Obama can maintain a small lead up until the debates, and emerge from them with a small bump, we'll be in good shape to finish strong.

[nyccitizen]

4. Expect it to go back and forth until the debates are over...

The media doesn't want to see a breakaway winner. They basked in how McCain had caught up after the convention, but when he started pulling away, they focused their guns on him and Palin. Now that the economic collapse has benefitted Obama, expect them to be more critical of him until it evens up again (and so on and so forth). They have to have their horse race.

The public doesn't like a breakaway winner either. Jay Cost at RCP had an article about how, aside from the blowouts in 64, 72, and 84, most American presidents had less than a 5% margin of victory in the popular vote. Once someone starts getting too far ahead the public starts to view that person with suspicion.

There might be little breakaways in the national polls here and there but the race appears to come back to equilibrium at about 47 Obama/45 McCain. Expect it to stay this way until the debates cause the undecideds to break, or until the election itself.

And besides, while the national polls might factor into the psyche of the race, it's all about demographics at the state level. This is 50 tiny elections, not one big one.

[liskddksil]

5. Obama usually has his worst days in the Gallup on Sunday

That might be a possible factor.

[jenmito]

6. I can see the commentary already: "McCain found his footing."

His surrogates were saying that and so were the tv pundits, that McCain got back on the offense and started hitting Obama on raising taxes. :eyes:

[Motown_Johnny]

7. I'll take a 4 point lead anytime