Obama may win NC, demographic analysis, recent polling, and election history

[usregimechange]

New polling indicates that Obama can win in NC!

North Carolina PPP (D) McCain 46, Obama 46 Tie
http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/PPP_Release_NC_92168.pdf

Obama beat Hillary there by 56.2%.
http://politics.nytimes.com/election-guide/2008/results/states/NC.html

Bill Clinton came within 1% of winning NC in 1992.

North Carolina


Mecklenburg County North Carolina, which contains Charlotte, has the highest population density at 1,322.2 persons per square mile. It also contains the most people at 827,445. Kerry won this country by 52%.

Wake County, home of Raleigh, has the second highest total population at 786,522 and a density of 754.6 person per square mile. Bush won this county by 51%.

African American population in NC is 21.7%


Well educated in NC


Orange County has a massive percentage of educated individuals, 51.5% have a Bachelors degree or higher. Orange county "is home to the University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill, the flagship institution of the University of North Carolina System" (Wiki). Clearly, this is prime Obama territory.

Wake County (home of Raleigh) is also a part of NC's Research Triangle with 43.9% with a Bachelors or higher and Meredith College, North Carolina State University, Peace College, Saint Augustine's College, Shaw University, and Wake Technical Community College.

Durham county is home to Duke University and North Carolina Central University and has 40.1% with a Bachelors degree or higher. Obama will win this county by wide margins as it also significantly young with only 9.4% of its population being 65 and older.

2004 election results


A strong GOTV effort can swing this state!

[Seen the light]

1. Good analysis. Obama needs to keep McCain's numbers down in Union

Union County, bordering Mecklenburg to the southeast, went overwhelmingly for Bush in 2004. It's a pretty wealthy state that's dominated politically by those on the western side of the county that commute into Mecklenburg. This suburban county has had a large population increase yet again since '04 and is expected to be McCain's biggest county in terms of a net gain. Keep an eye out on Union on Election Night. If Obama can crack 35% in Union County, he should win the state.

[usregimechange]

2. Your right, Bush got about 25,000 out of there, almost as much out of Cabarrus co.

20k or so from Gaston co too, all Charlotte burbs.

[Marsala]

3. There may even be an ANTI-Bradley effect

It's been noted that Obama performed better than polls suggested in the primaries in Southern states. If this extends to the general...

[usregimechange]

5. I hope it does, couldn't hurt I figure.

[Obamarulz11]

4. Good info!!

If we win in NC and VA. The McDumb/Per Diem campaign will suffer a heartattack.