Would you agree that if it's a tie after the RNC, Bush is Cooked?

[trumad]

I keep going back to 2000 when Dubya was 17 points up on Gore after the RNC...That's a lot. And I keep thinking that there are over 20 percent of undecideds out there that apparently are not being effected by the 2004 RNC Broadway production.

Folks.... This race has been like the Ocean... Back and forth, back and forth... BUT.... after the RNC is over and the Kerry ad buys kick in, JK will look like this.

[Walt Starr]

1. Bush will get a 15 point bounce out of the convention

Everybody knows you get a 15 point bounce after conventions.

That's my meme and I'm sticking to it!

[michigandem2]

my thoughts exactly Walt....15 pts is the norm...if he gets less

or none COMPLETE Failure...

[Sparkly]

2. Yes, but I'd fully expect the media to ask "Why isn't Kerry doing better?"

After the convention, it's a new game on both sides.

[HysteryDiagnosis]

3. No doubt n/t

[molly]

4. I agree - but then I would also be a tad scared

remember last time his polls numbers were down?

[cheezus]

5. Bush has 18 points to make up or he's screwed

Everyone was expecting at least 15 points from the convention. Bush as actually dropped 3 so far!

[MrBenchley]

6. Even if its a 15 or 20 point bounce

it's still a horserace....and so far I haven't seen anything to give Pretzel Boy any bounce at all....

Still Dick Cheney is going to "castigate" John Kerry tonight, so you never know...after all, that's been the problem so far: not enough Kerry-bashing (snicker).

[cthrumatrix]

7. he's screwed NOW and in a week...people can see thru the lies

and hate the damn media soooo much they are dealing with PISSED people

[denverbill]

8. Where in the world is Osama bin Laden?

You know they've got him, and he'll suddenly appear just in the nick of time.

Or, there is always Syria and Iran. Invading Iraq was a big hit for Bush's popularity in the early days. Another war couldn't hurt.

[Cocoa]

9. it'll be panic time

[BillZBubb]

10. No, I would not agree.

If it's a tie, then it's just that. A lot of things can happen in two months.

I really expect the "October Surprise" to come on the economic front. The Bush* lackeys will produce reports on the economy that make it look like the economy has REALLY accelerated.

The corportate media will report that the economy is now booming, but it will take a while for the average voter to feel the effects.

After the election, the numbers will be quietly "downgraded". No one will notice.