Hotline Tracking Poll: Obama 45% (+1) McCain 44% (-2)

[WI_DEM]

Barack Obama and Joe Biden today took their first lead in the week-old Diageo/Hotline tracking poll. Obama/Biden now lead John McCain and Sarah Palin 45-44% -- a 3% swing from McCain/Palin's 46-44% lead one day ago. The Dem ticket's increases since yesterday where driven mainly by gains among women and Inds.

Obama/Biden now lead women by 8%, rebuilding a gender gap which had nearly disappeared with their 2% lead in yesterday's release. McCain/Palin meanwhile lead men by 9%, up from their 7% margin on 9/10.

Among Inds, the GOP ticket's lead declined steadily throughout the week and now stands at 6%. That single-digit margin is just half of their 12% lead in yesterday's release and a fraction of their 19% advantage on 9/8. Both tickets remained relatively constant among Dems and GOPers.

McCain's fav ratings also changed significantly among Inds. The GOP nominee dropped from a 64% fav rating on 9/10 to 57% on 9/11; at the same time, his unfav jumped from 29% to 35%. McCain's favs among Inds had been as high as 68% on 9/8.

Today's survey, conducted 9/9-11 by FD, is the fifth daily installment tracking the two tickets. Party ID breakdown for the 913 RV sample is 42%D, 35%R, 20%I. The data carries a margin of error of +/- 3.2%.
http://hotlineblog.nationaljournal.com/archives/2008/09/diageohotline_t_3.html

[WI_DEM]

1. It's great to see Obama gaining among women and indies.

[featherman]

2. Finally some good news this morning... I was beginning to wonder

I'm staffing the Dem Headquarters here in Yreka CA all day today with little to do except surf the internet and it has been a little depressing. Fivethirtyeight.com is the gold standard for poll analysis and it shows Obama at his worst position in months with McCain a 52% likely to win. Ouch.

Let's hope we start gaining a bit more this week in the nationals and return to competitive status in the states we need.

ps. I know polls and methodology well so no need to reply with "it's only polls" and "corporate this and that" and blah, blah. I DON'T take them at face value but the recent trends are undeniable.

I keep looking for signs of the trend turning a bit. I do think that the idea that a terrible and incompetent Republican administration and 80% "wrong track" will be rewarded by electing another Republican is still unlikely but the weird Hail Mary selection of Palin has been a game changer in the short term and there are only 53 days left to offset the craziness it has created.

[WI_DEM]

3. Gallup tracking poll also shows Obama gaining, but McCain still ahead

Daily-Kos/Research 2000 tracking poll has Obama up by one.