For those of you concerned with the polls, read this:

[BigBearJohn]

Poll Madness: McCain Takes Lead Even As Democrats Out-Register Republicans?

This week's mainstream coverage of the presidential horse-race has been dominated by a series of polls showing the McCain-Palin ticket with its first stable lead over Obama and Biden. Gallup's tracking poll, USA Today and CBS News all show the Republicans with some kind of lead over the Democratic ticket. But, interestingly, all three polls were also conducted using a higher sampling of Republican voters than in July, raising a question of methodology.

In a year in which Democrats have a lead of 11 million registered voters over Republicans, and have been adding to that advantage through a robust field operation, are pollsters over-sampling Republicans?

Despite a raft of advantages in the electorate for Democrats, in September's first Gallup tracking poll, an equal number of Republicans and Democrats were surveyed (including "leaners") from Sept. 3-5, compared to a 10-point Democratic identification advantage two weeks ago. That partisan makeup of the polling pool resulted in a 5-point lead for McCain in Sept. 5 tracking poll. Meanwhile, the new CBS poll features a 6-point swing in partisan composition toward Republicans, which plays some role in the poll's two-point lead for McCain. Finally, the latest USA Today poll, which claims a four-point edge for McCain, was arrived at after a 10-point swing in partisan makeup toward GOP respondents.

Some polling experts say the changing state of party affiliation in the field is slow to be reflected in polls themselves. Democratic pollster Anna Greenberg told the Huffington Post that "when it comes to registration and turnout, the polls often do a very bad job of taking those into account," because newly registered voters aren't in the voter files used by firms that survey public opinion. "You could make the argument they are under-representing new registrants," she said, which would mean that the Democrats new edge would not be taken into account.

Monday's USA Today poll had a 48-47 split between Democrats and Republicans surveyed. That represents a nearly 10 point shift in party identification toward Republicans since USA Today's July polling. When asked for comment, USA Today polling editor Jim Norman wrote that "it's possible" that their latest sample includes too many Republicans. Though he added, "it's also possible that we have too many Democrats," because "there's always the chance of an over- or under-representation" in polls.

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2008/09/09/poll-madness-mccain-takes_n_125158.html

[annabanana]

1. Also... see THIS:

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=389x3959383
Busted!: Gallup, CBS, USA.Today, etc. Tinkers With Party ID Again

[liberal N proud]

2. But also consider this: Perception

All they have to do is keep the polls close through to November. Then when the corrupt election officials in a few states combined with corrupt voting machines in other states do their math and McCain suddenly has more votes that Obama, Just enough to win the electoral vote, they will point directly at the close polls.

The perception will be that of course it is conceivable that McCain won because the polls were close the entire election season.

It is all about perception and nothing to do with facts or math.

[No DUplicitous DUpe]

3. McCain Takes Lead?

I think every poll was at best even, within the MOE.

And I agree, their methodology is flawed.

[curious one]

4. I don't believe any polls but read your post. They are all BS.

[jeanpalmer]

5. My guess is part of the shift is due to Palin

Many Republicans were unmotivated before her selection, didn't like McCain, and were not identifying with the GOP. Palin changed that probably. The base loves her and is now motivated to vote, and to be identified as Republican. At least, that's how I see it.

[writes3000]

6. But that doesn't negate the fact that there are more registered Dems than Republicans.

By about 10 million. Getting Republicans excited doesn't change the numbers. Unless you can show many more Republicans will vote than Democrats, shifting the percentages doesn't make sense.

Welcome to DU!

[Samantha]

7. I think the MSM giving her non-stop free publicity since the

convention has added to the public perception she has made a big difference in the McCain campaign. When will Joe Biden's turn come?