DU help please-Colleague is convinced that this is 1988 Bush-Dukasis all over again

[Politics_Guy25]

So, my colleague at lunch just now was insisting that Mccain moving into the lead over the weekend is remniscient of how GWHB erased Michael Dukasis's 1988 17 point lead after his convention and moved into a steady 5-8 point lead thereafter and how Obama was up by between 5-10 points this year in pre-convention polling followed by losing the lead post convention. He said that Senator Obama is allowing himself to be defined the way that Dukasis was defined. I countered that this election could easily be like 1980 or 2000. President Carter and Vice President Gore moved into impressive leads post DNC (incumbent conventions those years) but saw the leads evaporate after a strong performance by their opponents during the debates. Indeed, Gore was ahead of GWB by 10-13 points the day before the 1st debate in Gallup!! I told him to wait for the debates and to see just how weakly Mccain and Palin will likely perform. Also Bush had the wildly popular Reagan. M has the wildly unpopular Bush to deal with.

Does anybody else have any other factual arguments that I can use to support my contention that this is not Bush V. Dukasis redux. Also, can I please have polling data from just after the final conventions in 1992, 1980, 1988 and 2000 please if possible?

Thanks!

[DemzRock]

1. I dunno. But tell him to listen to an Obama Speech. He ain't the Duke. n/t

[Tempest]

2. It's more like 1992

An unpopular president, a recession in the making and an unknown Democratic candidate.

[TheZug]

3. Rethugs ARE trying to make it like 1988.

It's up to Obama and us to not let them do it.

[Smarmie Doofus]

4. There are some parallels. But a lot of differences.

Economy is significantly worse. Everyone hates Bush... lots of swing voters liked Reagan. Biden is a stronger VEEP candidate than Bentsen was... there was no hope of winning in the south ( the rationale for Benstsen) and Biden has... or WILL have... personal and political appeal in swing states.

OTOH, Obama has a demographic challenge that Duke didn't have. And there is a passivity to the DEM campaign so far that is hightly reminiscent of '88.

Palin may sink the ship for GOP but only if Obama and Biden go after her... *actively*. The media will not rough her up the way it did the similarly ill-equipped Quayle. Those days are gone. ( Those days of an independent media, that is.)

[tigereye]

5. Obama and his team seem much more wily and aware of media effects than

the Dukakis crowd. It's a shame, too, since Dukakis was a good guy.


We have to hit em back, every time, just like Clinton, et al did.


I really don't think polls are that definitive at this point, perhaps only to see where certain demographics are trending and craft ads and media to reach them. JMO

[wowimthere]

6. polls are not definitive at this point. Agreed.