People, GALLUP IS 100% PURE UNADULTARATED REPUB PROPOGANDA

[Beetwasher]

And they have been for a while. Take the poll w/ a significant amount of skepticism.

That being said, the poll is only scary because it's cover for the possibility of a STOLEN election, otherwise, it's pure horseshit.

Here's a post about Gallup I wrote a few years ago that shows how they are pure horseshit:

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_topic&forum=104&topic_id=534560

[treestar]

1. Before they said Obama was ahead, though

But maybe he was further ahead in reality than they said.

[Beetwasher]

2. That Creates The Illusion Of A HUGE McCain Bounce

Get it? Obama ahead by a lot, the WHAMMO, McCain has the AMAZING SURGE IN SUPPORT making it incredibly "newsworthy".

[treestar]

6. Yeah, and as if Tundra Barbie made such a huge difference

that seems ridiculous on the face of it.

She didn't earn her place on the ticket, so why would she be the most important one of the four? It's hard to believe.

[Beetwasher]

10. It Is Ridiculous

It's very, very easy to manipulate the data in polls, and it's being done CONSTANTLY. Read the internals. One week the poll samples 40% Dem, 30% Indy, 30% Repub. The next week it's 35% Dem, 25% Indy, 40% Repub and VOILA! A huge McCain bounce. I'm not saying that's necessarily what happened w/this poll, I haven't had time to dissect the internals yet, but this happens VERY frequently nowadays.

For what it's worth, a polls sample should reflect the national breakdown of party affiliation, if it doesn't it's pretty worthless.

[maseman]

26. YOU ARE WRONG WRONG WRONG

I understand it is getting emotional around here but what you posted is wrong. Yes it is true that the % of Dems/Reps/Ind, etc. change from poll sample to poll sample. That is why they use weighting models to either "weight" data up if they fall below a threshhold or "weight" it down if they overdeliver a threshhold. The alternative to this "weighting" method is called quota sampling but that is less credible than weighting data.

This recent poll could be some statistical bounce from day to day but quite frankly it is probably pretty correct. I know we don't want to hear or see that but it's true. I think Palin made a big impact on the fundie nut crowd and since McCain didn't have a stroke during his speech (which woul dhave made it more fun) then he got a big bounce. Let's see where they are in a week or so.

[Beetwasher]

28. Umm, No, I'm Not Wrong

I'm quite familiar w/ weighting.

Read the internals of this poll and get back to me. Better yet, describe to me how Gallup weighted this poll and we'll see if you know what you're talking about.

[maseman]

34. So you are implying that they do not weight since you do not see

them say in their cliff notes DOM which demos/sociographics are weighted? If you ranswer is yes than you clearly do not know what you are talking about.

If they didn't weight their data would swing wildly and would ALWAYS favor the female 50+ voter. Why? Because women who are over 50 tend to pick up their telephones and answer questions much more than any other demographic. I have two friends on the inside at Gallup in research and will put a call in tomorrow to get the exact demos they weight.

[tritsofme]

36. They do not weight for party ID, and that is what frustrates many around here.

They weight for other demographics obviously, for the reasons stated above.

But they do not weight for party ID because they consider it to be fluid.

They ask this question in their polls: "In politics, as of today, do you consider yourself a Republican, a Democrat, or an Independent?"

How they feel "today" can differ from tomorrow and it may be wrong to assume that party ID is a static number.

The bottom line is that Gallup's final polling numbers are usually spot on, despite what the whiners whine about.

[Beetwasher]

37. So you have no clue how they weighted this?

got it.

[Cha]

4. Corporate media will do anything to manipulate

the voters' perceptions..ANYTHING.

[regnaD kciN]

11. This particular Gallup poll (the USAToday one) had McCain up by 5...

...among likely voters at the end of July.

Don't get the two Gallup polls confused. While there are reasons to be wary of daily tracking polls (such as the Gallup one that shows McCain up by 3 today after being down by 2 yesterday), the USAToday/Gallup poll has been seriously weird for some time.

[mccain_pwned]

3. I thought they were Unadulterated Truth last week? *NT*

[Beetwasher]

5. According To Who? Me?

Put up or shut up, Chester. Did I ever say that? If not, shut the fuck up, you're talking to ME, not anyone else.

[Name removed]

8. Deleted message

Message removed by moderator. Click here to review the message board rules.

[Beetwasher]

13. We Should Be Going After Gallup

Read the post I linked to in my OP. They are a Repub propoganda tool, no more and have been for a while now. They should be viewed as such.

[MadBadger]

16. They have had Obama up for a long time.

McCain took the lead during the convention. You need undeniable evidence to prove this poll as Republican propaganda

[Beetwasher]

17. It Doesn't Matter

Read the links in my OP. I don't know what you would consider "proof", but there's certainly evidence there.

[mccain_pwned]

20. Well thanks for the unkind greeting...

A Welcome To DU would have been much more friendly.

At least you can think rationally unlike the author of this thread.

[Beetwasher]

23. "A Welcome To DU would have been much more friendly."

Who gives a shit what you think? Welcome to the internets, jeenyus.

[regnaD kciN]

14. DIFFERENT POLL...

Once again, the Gallup Daily Tracking is not the same poll as USAToday/Gallup. Same organization, but totally different methodology.

I'm suspicious of daily tracking polls in general, but I really find U/G to be unreliable.

[regnaD kciN]

7. I wouldn't say they're "pure propaganda"...

...but I'd say their likely voter model has been questionable for some time.

And keep in mind we're talking about the USAToday/Gallup poll, not Gallup Daily Tracking. Totally different methodology.

[Kdillard]

9. All polls are to be taken with a grain of salt. The only polls that matter

kis in November.

[Obamarulz11]

12. The gallup poll..A political science professors reaction

I remember my Political Science professor telling us in class about polls. "Remember there's no such thing as a accurate poll, especially in politics. The Gallup poll especially heavily GOP biased."

[Beetwasher]

15. It's Worse Than Bias

It's outright fraud and deception. They are actively working on behalf of Repubs to help create a narrative. It's become very clear over the last few years. Read the link in my OP.

[totodeinhere]

18. So Gallup had a lot of people at DU fooled last week?

Last week when Gallup had Obama up by eight points a lot of posters at DU were reveling in it. But now that they have McCain ahead suddenly Gallup is a fraud. You can't have it both ways people.

[Beetwasher]

19. Show Me Where I Want It Both Ways

Or shut the fuck up. This is MY post. Your talking to ME. I never reveled in anything. Gallup is SHIT. I don't care if they had Obama up last week. All the more better to make it look like McCain got a HUGE bump.

[totodeinhere]

21. Did I refer to you specifically? I said "a lot of people at DU."

And I stand by what I said whether you may want me to "shut the fuck up" or not.

[Beetwasher]

22. You Stand By Bullshit

You replied to MY OP, so yeah, you're talking to me specifically. No one else but me posted the idea that Gallup is bullshit. So, you're comment about having it "both ways" applies to ME. Who else are you talking to Einstein? You replied to my post and I'm not having it both ways. Who else is then? Put up or shut.

[mccain_pwned]

24. Can you please stop with the kiddie language? Why are you so angry? *NT*

[Beetwasher]

25. LOL!

Am I offending your virgin ears? :rofl:

Fuck fuckers fuckity fucking fuck.

Can you please stop trying to police the internets, Einstein? Oh, what the hell, go ahead, try and police the tubes, it's your idiotic prerogative.

[totodeinhere]

27. A lot of people are very passionate and emotional about this election.

And who can blame them after eight years of shrub and darth cheney? So I don't see the need to get into a pissing match with that poster who is most likely a good Democrat who cares about his or her country.

But you are correct. We need to try to keep our anger in check because it's not helping. We need to keep a clear head and work all the harder to see that Obama/Biden get elected.

In fact, that's my main point. If Gallup shows McCain up by ten points, I say "good, now let's get our butts in gear and get to work."

[Statistical]

29. So was Gallup "cheating" for Kerry in 2004?

In 2004 if I remember right Gallup was one of the ones showing Kerry up 1.5% night before election.

So were they a "REPUB PROPOGANDA" then also?

More likely the +4 is simply McCain's bounce. Every party gets a bounce from every convention, every year for the last 10 or so conventions.
It would be "weirder" if McCain didn't have a bounce.

Before convention had Obama up 1 or 2.
After Obama covention had Obama up 6 or 8 (depending on poll).
After McCain convention likely he will be up 5 (should peak Tomorrow or Tuesday).
Over next week it will die down slowly to +3, +1, tie +1 Obama, +2 Obama.
By next Friday we should have a "good idea" where things stand before the debates.

Each of the 4 debates (3 PRES + 1 VP) will move the polls slightly then we have final 2 weeks and election day.

It was like this in 2004, 2000, 1996, 1992, 1988, 1984, etc. I don't know why anyone is surprised about it this year.

[mccain_pwned]

30. Don't try to speak rationally with said author, you may draw his ire *NT*

[Beetwasher]

32. Thanks For The Kick, Einstein!

:rofl:

[NYC_SKP]

35. Einstein has enormous BALLS.

I didn't know that before tonight!

:rofl:

[Beetwasher]

31. What Is It W/ People Who Respond W/out Reading An Entire OP?

Yeesh. Read the fucking OP w/ links. Gallup is horseshit.

"In 2004 if I remember right Gallup was one of the ones showing Kerry up 1.5% night before election."

I doubt it, but feel free to post your OWN fucking links showing that to be true.

[totodeinhere]

33. Actually, in his last 2004 pre election poll Gallup had it as a dead heat.

Several other mainstream polls had Bush ahead.

http://people-press.org/commentary/?analysisid=102