Rassmussen: Obama leads by 3 points - RNC bounce not enough to take lead

[bushisanidiot]

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/election_20082/2008_presidential_election/daily_presidential_tracking_poll


"Daily Presidential Tracking Poll
Saturday, September 06, 2008
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The Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll for Saturday shows Barack Obama attracting 46% of the vote while McCain earns 45%. When "leaners" are included, it’s Obama 49%, McCain 46% (see recent daily results). Tracking Poll results are released at 9:30 a.m. Eastern Time each day and a FREE daily e-mail update is available. "

[JeanGrey]

1. THREE POINTS?? That is all we lead by?

What the hell is wrong with America? Are we really this stupid?

[msongs]

2. americans are looking for fighter. who will that be lol nt

[Colobo]

3. Obama.

[Marsala]

4. But the convention bounce seems to have been weak

so only less than half of America is this stupid. Well, barely less than half.

[Kurt_and_Hunter]

9. Reagan led by LESS in 1984 after the Dem convention

If you lead by even a point after the other guy's convention that's a BIG deal

[Lucinda]

5. The RNC bounce isn't in there yet.

[melody]

11. Yes it is

There's only McCain's speech to show up in the numbers. The best he can do is tie it.

[Lucinda]

15. Did you read the link? Text here:

Tracking Poll results are based upon nightly telephone interviews and reported on a three-day rolling average basis. As a result, roughly two-thirds of the interviews were completed before McCain’s speech on Wednesday night. One third were completed before Alaska Governor Sarah Palin’s speech on Wednesday. Tomorrow (Sunday) will be the first update based entirely upon interviews conducted after Palin’s speech and Monday will be the first based entirely upon interviews conducted after McCain’s speech. By Tuesday or Wednesday, the overall impact of both political conventions should be fairly clear.

[melody]

17. No, I'm not looking at polling data until Tuesday

That's when we'll see movement but I doubt seriously it's going to be more than a statistical tie.
There's also the anti-Palin independent movement to consider.

[Lucinda]

20. I think things are way to volitile right now for polls anyway

Every blip that hits the news seems to cause the school of fish to change directions

[melody]

23. I keep my eye on the EC. That's much more telling and that looks good fo us n/t

[Lucinda]

24. And its the one that matters. n/t

[the Sundance Kid]

21. you really want them to bounce, don't ya?

it's sad.

[Lucinda]

28. You really have a problem with discussing facts, dont ya?

it's sad.

[the Sundance Kid]

29. is it a fact? or just your limited opinion?

you are predicting a McCain lead in the polls which is not in existence.

surprise, surprise

[mvd]

6. I said before that the Repuke bounce wouldn't be so big

I think the Palin speech did the most, and that didn't do so much since it didn't inspire people like Obama did. It satisfied people looking for mud and reasons to not vote for Obama. Even Obama's speech didn't really add to his lead - but it sustained it. If anything, McSame's speech could even take away another point or two.

[democracy1st]

7. and we have the debates coming up

:toast:

[Eric J in MN]

8. Unfortunately, Obama's peak so far was on Wednesday,

...therefore McCain-Palin may keep going up through Wednesday.

[mvd]

10. The Repuke convention was in full swing on Wed and Thu

It's hard to say what will happen short term - even if McSame gains a little more (and I do not see how it could be much more,) Obama will go back to leading by 3-5 points at least IMO.

[melody]

12. They'll go up a little but not enough to pass Obama

And we still have a long EC lead.

[geek tragedy]

13. The bounce isn't over yet.

Best case scenario is that McCain will only pull into a tie.

More people watched their convention on a nightly basis than watched ours. Their convention talked about how great their guy is and how awful ours is. Our convention talked about how great their guy is, but our guy is also great but he has better ideas.


They won the VP/Convention media event battle. They won't win the war.

[GoesTo11]

14. Obama at 56 on Intrade

5/9 chance of winning? That's enough for me. That's more than half!

Just kidding. I'm pretty optimistic. Sometimes the real narrative goes under the radar screen. In this case, the real narrative is
1) McCain and Palin are morons
2) Obama and Biden are brilliant
3) Obama's playing to win not to get praise for his ego
4) Obama's investing everything in stuff that will pay off Nov 5, not today.
5) McCain has left weaknesses all over the place he'll have to defend - flip flopping, Palin, Palin, Palin, Gramm-whinergate, etc. that Obama hasn't begun to attack
6) Obama's basically been addressing any potential weaknesses, e.g., ability to look right on world stage
7) Obama has ground game and money for air attack. McCain only has air attack.
8) Obama voters are psyched up. McCain voters are voting in spite of McCain.
9) Media just wants a story. People believe that story. Just a story.

[Awsi Dooger]

30. I've been monitoring that today

My friend and I want to play Obama at 55. It's in the 57 to 58 range now.

[Dinger]

16. Obama/Biden Need To Lead By More Than 5%, Or A Third Election Will Be Stolen

Seems to me, I remember reading that as long as the margin is 5% or less, an election is ripe for the stealing. diebold ya know.

[melody]

18. Yet another ray of sunshine

The biggest way to weaken a vote is to discourage people. But then if you think the deck is stacked against you, it relieves you of the need to do anything.

[Dinger]

19. Well, I Suppose Everything Is Fine And Dandy Then

No worries.

[melody]

22. There is room between "fine and dandy" and "all is lost"

That is my point.

[Dinger]

25. I Don't For One Minute Think

"all is lost." I wish the lead was greater. It needs to be greater. Hopefully that will soon be the case.

[bigwillq]

26. It's only early Sept.

and now that the conventions are over and the real campaigning starts, I feel Obama has a great chance of extending his lead.

[Dinger]

27. Well, Let's Hope So (nt)