You probably know this already, but it bears repeating: "Daily Tracking Polls" are mostly useless.

[WilliamPitt]

...and I say this despite the fact that Obama is leading in those polls as of today.

Those "national numbers" auger more towards judging the balance of the popular vote, which as we all know far too well, does not determine the winner in any national election. I've become entirely convinced over the last several years that such polls are basically collected and released so the knuckleheads on TV can have something to talk about. The have just enough wherewithal to handle dialogue about simple math, and they can infuse the daily swings with far more drama than they deserve.

"Ooooh," they get to squeal, "it's a horserace! Now I don't have to discuss anything of substance! Let's do a four-hour show on these tracking polls! Again! We can interview the same fifteen pundit-morons who were on yesterday about a three-point margin that doesn't mean much! Yay!"

If you really want to get a sense of where the election is right now, specifically focusing on the Electoral College math, I highly recommend the CQPolitics "Poll-Tracker" blog page:

http://blogs.cqpolitics.com/polltracker/

...and specifically recommend their excellent state-by-state poll roundup. This is from yesterday:

http://blogs.cqpolitics.com/polltracker/2008/09/latest-statebystate-general-el-45.html

...and it says, among other things:

* Ohio: dead heat;

* Iowa: Obama leads by 15 points;

* Colorado: dead heat

* New Mexico: Obama leads by 13 points;

* Pennsylvania: Obama leads by 5 points;

* Florida: dead heat;

* North Carolina: McCain leading, but is within the margin of error;

* Michigan: dead heat;

* Virginia: dead heat;

* New Hampshire: dead heat;

...etc...

It's probably kind of a positive thing that our home-field must-win Blue states are swinging for Obama in a big way (except for PA as of now), and that we're running so close in swing states and even some heavy GOP strongholds. The state-by-state numbers reveal a far more positive situation than the national polls do, and the state polls have the added quality of being far more reflective of where those all-important EC votes are trending toward.

A 15-point lead in Iowa?! Dead heats in Ohio, as well as in freakin' fa-Chrissakes Florida, North Carolina, Virginia and Colorado?!

Fie upon national tracking poll gobbldeygook, I say. I poop on them from great height.

:)

[Dystopian]

1. Thank you!

Live and learn...


peace~

[Wetzelbill]

2. The best gauge a daily tracking poll will have

Is usually if a candidate is up by around 5 points, historically, that will translate to an automatic and relatively substantial electoral college victory. But if you really want to get into the meat of it all, you need to know the electoral college stuff. Poll, of any kind, don't really truly matter until you get to the last few weeks of an election, after the conventions and debates. Only then do they give you a better look at what the final results might be.

Also, polls don't give you info on voter registration or turnout advantages. And right now Dems have been bringing in new registered voters all year, and had a huge turnout advantage in the primaries, when both were being contested. All in all, it really looks good. Obama is bringing in new voters, while McCain is still trying to win over parts of his party's base. Palin helped, but I just don't think she makes much of a difference otherwise.

[Mojambo]

3. We are in GREAT shape.

McCain is simply not going to have the money, and more importantly, the organization to defend all those states.

[Wetzelbill]

4. not at all

He's forced to defend traditional strongholds that were automatic GOP wins in the past. He can barely compete on a national level. All signs point to this being O's race to lose. So yeah, it does look good.

[berni_mccoy]

5. My Favorite Measure of how the race is going comes from Electoral-Vote.com

The graph above shows the electoral votes again but omits the "barely" states. The electoral votes of a state only count in this graph if the candidate has a margin of 5% or more over his opponent.

[Canuckistanian]

7. That's a great graph

And I'm not saying that just because Obama appears so far ahead.

It's a a poll based on real results that we'd see on the election night, when it really counts.

They really should stop all this nonsense about the "popular vote", because it's the "electoral vote" that decides the race.

[FrenchieCat]

6. I totally agree.......

and those who stake anything on them day in day out will suffer a nervous breakdown by election day and will be totally useless to the Obama campaign in the meantime.

[yodermon]

8. Au Contraire. Tracking polls are *fantastic*

..for me too poop on!

[mwooldri]

9. Exactly! that's what you have in a first-past-the-post system.

As demonstrated in 2000, you can win the popular vote yet lose the electoral college. This is a race of races.

This is why if you live in PA, MI, WI, MN, NH, and possibly OR the so-called Conservatives are probably targeting these states. We need to hold these states and get NV, NM, IA, and OH onboard... if we get FL, VA and (I really hope!) NC then that'll be a whitewash enough.

Plus don't forget the House and Senate races. These also act as our insurance policy should McBush cause an upset and somehow get appointed to 1600 Pennsylvania Ave.

Mark.

[bunnies]

10. I dont piss in your sandbox, Will...

What the hell? :evilgrin: :hi:

[elleng]

11. NOT

a daily tracking poll:

http://americanresearchgroup.com/

[mirrera]

12. I would have said 'Bless you" 8 years ago, but now it just sounds... tawdry.

So thanks, just thanks. Good point.

[ejbr]

13. Tracking polls are no good because

Diebold and Republican antics make them, and the actual excercise of VOTING, useless.

[Awsi Dooger]

14. Sorry, but you have no fucking clue

Don't spit out simpleton dribble just to play to the masses.

There is no greater predictive variable toward the electoral college than averaging of national polls. The national number dictates where the states will fall in line, based on their typical partisan tendencies and the liberal/conservative percentages in each state.

Frankly, this is an embarrassing theme around here. The same mindset that predicted Sarah Palin would drop out of the race loves to pretend that national polls don't matter.

Get involved in a 16-man betting pool for 12 years against wealthy guys and you'll damn sure need to know what is relevant and what isn't. State polls are mostly worthless, and certainly flawed. Many of them err in the same direction every cycle but the goofs who base their models on state polls laughably never take that into account, merely taking them at face value. :rofl:

[Strawman]

15. I like FiveThirtyEight.com

http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/

[Captain Hilts]

16. The trends they show ARE useful, however. nt

[Mudoria]

17. I just don't think looking at polls now is all that useful..

so much can happen between now and November that anything polled now seems pointless. A poll in mid-to late October... now that's something to pay attention to.