This is my problem with Kerry and SWL ads

[dsc]

By any reasonable standard, August was a horrible month for Bush. All of the following came out in August. Figures showing more people in poverty now than in Jan 2001. Figures showing more uninsured people now than in Jan 2001. Growth rates have fallen. Job numbers were adjusted downward for both June and July. The war in Iraq went badly until just two days ago. In short, both domesticly and abroad, everything Bush touched turned to crap.

Yet what happened in the polls? http://www.pollingreport.com/2004.htm

BUSH vs. KERRY: Among likely voters; with leaners, where available. (See registered voters.)

Survey BUSH KERRY Margin Includes
Running-
End Date % % Bush Kerry mates?

Time 8/26 46 46 Y

FOX/Opinion Dynamics 8/25 44 45 1 N

Gallup 8/25 50 47 3 Y

GWU Battleground 8/17 47 49 2 N

Zogby 8/14 43 50 7 Y

Gallup 8/11 50 47 3 Y

ICR 8/8 48 48 Y

Time 8/5 44 51 7 Y

Democracy Corps (D) 8/5 45 52 7 N

FOX/Opinion Dynamics 8/4 43 48 5 N

ABC/Washington Post 8/1 48 49 1 N

CNN/USA Today/Gallup 8/1 51 47 4 Y

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

There are three polls in which we can make a direct comparison between the first week of August and last Wednesday. In Gallup, Kerry gained one point. In Fox, Kerry lost 4 points (he lost 3 while Bush gained 1). In Time, Kerry lost 7 points (he lost 5 while Bush gained 2).

Looking at Kerry's favorable/unfavorable numbers shows us what happened.

Time Poll conducted SRBI Public Affairs. Aug. 24-26, 2004. N=1,026 registered voters nationwide. MoE ± 4.

.

"Please tell me if you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of John Kerry. If you don't have an opinion of this candidate, just let me know."

.

Favorable Unfavorable Unsure
% % %
8/24-26/04 44 33 23
8/3-5/04 53 29 19


--------------------------------------------------------------------------------




FOX News/Opinion Dynamics Poll. Aug. 24-25, 2004. N=1,000 likely voters nationwide. MoE ± 3.

.

"I'm going to read the names of some people. Please tell me whether you have a generally favorable or unfavorable opinion of each. If you've never heard of one, please just say so. John Kerry."
.

Favorable Unfavorable Can't Say Never Heard Of

8/24-25/04 48 39 12 1
.

Among registered voters:

8/3-4/04 52 34 13 1


--------------------------------------------------------------------------------




CNN/USA Today/Gallup Poll. Aug. 23-25, 2004. N=1,004 adults nationwide. MoE ± 3.

.

"We'd like to get your overall opinion of some people in the news. As I read each name, please say if you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of these people -- or if you have never heard of them. How about John Kerry."
1/2-5/04 and earlier: "Massachusetts Senator John Kerry"
.

Favorable Unfavorable Never Heard Of No Opinion


8/23-25/04 52 40 1 7
7/30 - 8/1/04 57 37 1 5


In Time, Kerry lost 13 points (-9 favorable +4 unfavorable). In FOX, Kerry lost 9 (-4 favorable + 5 unfavorable). In CNN/Gallop, Kerry lost 8 (-5 favorable + 3 unfavorable).

Every piece of news which affected people's lives was bad for Bush during this period. Yet Kerry suffered a significant erosion of support. We can blame this on space aliens, we can blame it on death rays from Mars, we can blame it on bitter ex Dean supporters, or we can grow up and look at the evidence. The attacks had a serious effect on Kerry's numbers and it would have been worse had it not been for the fact that the other news was so dreadful.

We can't change the fact the media is lazy. We can't change the fact that the Swift Boat Liars, lie. We can't change the fact that some people will believe bildge. We can change how the campaign responds to future ads. The numbers aren't lying. Kerry lost serious ground. This strategy didn't work. No amount of ad hominum attacks against the messanger is going to change the basic truth of the message. Kerry needs to be sure the next ad is responded to immediately and with surrogates who know what happened. He needs to get friendly journalists stories like Blumenthal did for Clinton. It is that simple. Calling me names, making up lies about what is in my posts, isn't going to change that. We must change what we can change and that is Kerry's campaign's behavior.

note the link provided is to the election 2004 page to get the specific charts one needs to go to the summary of the head to head polls and the Kerry favorable polls.

[chimpymustgo]

1. Okay, your endless negatism has convinced me. Kerry sucks.

Dean would be leading by 25 points now. We made a mistake.

NOT.

Would you stop this?

[freetobegay]

3. Thanks I didn't want to bother with that response.

It is getting old. At least the good news is these type of posts are getting fewer & fewer.

[wndycty]

4. As Jay Z says "I got 99 problems. . ."

:kick:

[dsc]

12. You complained in my first thread that I didn't have evidence

now I have provided it and you complain anew. So which is it? Do you want evidence or not?

[Andromeda]

14. My grandma used to say "if you can't say something good...

don't say anything at all."

Things are pretty static now and a week is forever in a political campaign. My emotions are in flux on a day to day basis and I'm having a difficult time keeping my spirits up.

No matter how bleak you want to paint things I know in my heart that Kerry will win. This is not false hope -- it is something I really believe is true.

When Gov. Dean didn't win the primaries I was very upset at first. I had invested a lot of mental and physical energy in supporting him and when it became apparent he was going to lose I was devastated. But I am a realist and there was no question in my mind that if we wanted to win this election we had to stop fighting among ourselves and unite our efforts to help Kerry win.

Nothing good ever comes easy and this election year is no exception. This election isn't about you or me, it's about the future of our country.

Put aside your personal feelings and think about what another four years of Bush would be like.

[IndianaGreen]

15. Raymond Shaw is the kindest, warmest, bravest...

Raymond Shaw is the kindest, warmest, bravest, most wonderful human being I've ever known in my life.

The Manchurian Candidate (1962)

:evilgrin:

[dsc]

16. It is precisely because of what 4 more years of Bush will bring

that I am offering constructive criticism. There will be another SWL ad and he needs to respond differently or else the same thing will happen again.

[Old and In the Way]

2. Will we be enjoying this commentary from you on a daily basis

between now and November?

You were wrong about Dean...why should I think you are right about Kerry?

[mzmolly]

5. I think Kerry should hold a Press Conference on Monday to distract from

the convention. In the conference, he should invite media that is "fair" and answer questions with his comrades. This would steal the thunder from the Bushies and directly confront the lies at the same time. :evilgrin:

But, then again ... it might just drag this shit out too? Who knows? I don't think there was a "perfect" response to this madness. :crazy:

Look at what our *fair minded* media did to Dean. But the end of the primaries, he was a mad man.

It's tough to defend yourself against blatent lies, no matter ... at times like this I think our 527's need to step it up a bit too.

/jumbled rant

[xray s]

6. If the election was September 2, instead of November 2, I'd agree

But the election is two months away. Kerry has two months to focus on all those troublesome problems with the economy and Bush's handling of Iraq. The Bush campaign had to open it's tool box of smears early and they have thrown their biggest wrench at Kerry and he is still standing tall.

Have a little faith, baby.

[dsc]

7. That is why I mentioned changes he could make

It would be pointless to post this if it were October 29 instead of August 29.

[Toucano]

8. Census data on poverty and the uninsured

Just came out on 8/26 and the effect can't be measured in the current crop of polls.

Kerry's been down before and he always wins in the end. Fear not, dsc

[dsc]

10. you have a point on that

I had thought it was last week but you are correct on that one.

[seventhson]

9. Here' what I miss: I miss...

Gore

In retrospect --- I am still pissed that he dropped out and punted this election...

A Failure of leadership on Gore's part.

But still. could it POSSIBLY have been worse if Gore were the candidate? COULD THEY HAVE RAISED anything LIKE THIS WITH HIM?

I DOUBT IT.

Sorry for the negativism.

I do NOY want to say I told you so about "our" current candidate.

But I am very very worried.

Bush plays very dirty. But Gore was too damn clean to fight dirty.

And Kerry does not yet seem to know how to fight at all.

This is a clash of civilizations and we need Kerry to be our chief warrior.

SOMEBODY needs to TELL HIM THAT ALL THE F*CKING TIME!!!.

Otherwise we will be stuck with the blackest/bleakest nightmare known to man - a conTinuation of the Holocaust started by Bush's grandfather and fiends.

[WiseMen]

11. It will take Independents to go into the gutter after these SlimeBalls.

Don't expect Kerry to do this. We have enough 527's to match theirs.
We had better do what we need to do rather than blame Kerry.

[dsc]

13. Kerry picks his surrogates

and Kerry decides the talking points. Those are the things I do expect him to do well. As to ads, which is where I assume you are headed, to the extent we should run any it should be a 527. I am not convinced an ad is needed, but if one is, you are correct as to who should run it.

[michaelzef]

17. 527's

We need to hit back and hit back hard.