The Daily Widget – Tues 9/2 – O-323, M-215 – A Look Back At August National Polls

[phrigndumass]

Contents:
1. Analysis
2. Widgets
3. New State Polls
4. Daily Tracking – Electoral Votes
5. Daily Tracking – Wigand Electoral Average
6. Daily Tracking – Popular Vote and Swing States Trading
7. Electoral College Map and State Chart
8. Links, Definitions and Sources


* * * * * * *


1. ANALYSIS

No new state polls have been released since last Thursday, before Barack Obama’s phenomenal acceptance speech and before the republican VP announcement. But the national polls have been busy.

CNN has two polls showing Obama leading nationwide by one point (head-to-head), or by two points when the question is opened up to all presidential candidates. But CBS News, on the other hand, shows Obama leading by eight points nationwide, while USA Today shows Obama winning by seven points. All three polls were conducted through Sunday, August 31. You can guess which poll is way off (hint: CNN).

The daily trackers have shown a similar bounce as the CBS and USA Today polls. Gallup has been ranging between Obama +6 and Obama +8 the past few days, while Rasmussen puts the range at Obama +3 to Obama +4.

Obama’s average lead in the National Monthlies for August was +3.2, while his average lead in the Daily Trackers for August was +1.9. Gallup was more in line with the National Monthlies at Obama +2.5 average, while Rasmussen was dismally off the mark at Obama +1.3 average.





There were 15 National Monthly polls released during August:

8/4 – Time Magazine – Obama 46, McCain 41 – (+5)
8/5 – CBS/New York Times – Obama 45, McCain 39 – (+6)
8/10 – Pew Research – Obama 46, McCain 43 – (+3)
8/16 – Reuters/Zogby – Obama 41, McCain 46 – (-5)
8/17 – Quinnipiac University – Obama 47, McCain 42 – (+5)
8/18 – NBC/Wall St Journal – Obama 45, McCain 42 – (+3)
8/18 – LA Times/Bloomberg – Obama 45, McCain 43 – (+2)
8/19 – CBS/New York Times – Obama 45, McCain 42 – (+3)
8/19 – Fox News – Obama 42, McCain 39 – (+3)
8/22 – ABC/New York Post – Obama 49, McCain 45 – (+4)
8/23 – USA Today/Gallup – Obama 48, McCain 45 – (+3)
8/24 – CNN – Obama 47, McCain 47 – (+0)
8/31 – CNN – Obama 49, McCain 48 – (+1)
8/31 – CBS/New York Times – Obama 48, McCain 40 – (+8)
8/31 – USA Today/Gallup – Obama 50, McCain 43 – (+7)

The current average of the National Dailies is Obama +3.4, which is above its overall average of Obama +3.1. The Big 12 Monthlies now show Obama leading by 3.8, and that’s only slightly below its overall average of Obama +4.6. When everything is all wrapped up in a nice, neat package, we see Obama currently leading nationwide by 3.7. That’s a lead beyond the margin of error.





* * * * * * *


2. WIDGETS



^ FIGURE 2a. This is what we refer to as the “Widget”. In the white section, it shows Obama’s and McCain’s electoral vote projection from three different sources. 270 would be a majority. In the yellow section, it shows three sources of trading and averages for the candidates. The scale for these is 0 to 100, with 50 being a majority. Intrade shows the trading, while RCP-av shows the aggregate average of all the state polls. The Wigand Electoral Average is our own indicator, and shows how the candidates will do if the undecideds nationwide break the same way as the swing states.



^ FIGURE 2b. The Wigand Electoral Average is our own indicator, and shows how the candidates will do if the undecideds nationwide break the same way as the swing states. Each of the twelve swing states are listed below the indicator’s current score. The closing figures on Intrade are shown next to each state, with a column to show the change from the previous day. The scale for these is 0 to 100, with 50 being a majority.


* * * * * * *


3. NEW STATE POLLS


~~~ No new state polls ~~~


Scale:
Strong Obama (10% or greater)
Weak Obama (5% to 9%)
Lean Obama (0% to 4%)
Lean McCain (0% to 4%)
Weak McCain (5% to 9%)
Strong McCain (10% or greater)


* * * * * * *


4. DAILY TRACKING – ELECTORAL VOTES



^ FIGURE 4a. This graph shows the daily tracking of Obama’s projected electoral votes from three sources. 270 is a majority of the electoral votes. The blue line shows daily tracking from 538.com, which projects what the outcome should be on election day. The red line shows daily tracking from Electoral-Vote.com, which shows a current snapshot of Obama’s electoral progress if the undecideds break evenly. The green line is my own projection, and it shows a current snapshot of Obama’s electoral progress if the undecideds break the same way as the swing states. A trend line is used (dashed green line) to show the average progress since May 19 and possible route for the next seven days.



^ FIGURE 4b. This graph shows Obama’s green line and red line from the previous graph, and compares it to John Kerry’s 2004 progress (orange line) as shown from Electoral-Vote.com. (Both the red line and the orange line show data from Electoral-Vote.com)


* * * * * * *


5. DAILY TRACKING – WIGAND ELECTORAL AVERAGE



^ FIGURE 5a. This graph shows the daily tracking of the swing states total from the Wigand Electoral Average widget above (second chart from the top). To show Obama’s progress in the swing states, divide the latest closing figure by 1200.



^ FIGURE 5b. Wigand vs. National Polls, RCP Average and Trading. The Wigand Electoral Average uses both poll averages and trading (swing states), and this graph compares it to the national daily tracking polls from Gallup, Rasmussen and Real Clear Politics (average), as well as the closing trading figures from Intrade (people buying shares with real money) and Rasmussen Markets (people using fake money).


* * * * * * *


6. DAILY TRACKING – POPULAR VOTE AND SWING STATES TRADING



^ FIGURE 6a. I am projecting 126,750,000 million votes on election day, which is the total 2004 votes plus population growth for each state. A total projected popular vote is calculated for each candidate based on projected votes on election day this year multiplied by each state’s current poll results. This graph shows the daily tracking of the popular vote calculations.



^ FIGURE 6b. This graph shows the daily tracking of each swing state’s closing figure on Intrade. The scale is 0 to 100 with 50 being a majority. I commonly refer to the range from 40.00 to 60.00 as “The Zone” because the states in The Zone are true swing states this year.


* * * * * * *


7. ELECTORAL COLLEGE MAP AND STATE CHART








* * * * * * *


8. LINKS, DEFINITIONS AND SOURCES


Yesterday’s Widget
Full Weekly Tracking
Past editions of THE MATH

Sources:
Pollster.com
FiveThirtyEight.com
Electoral-Vote.com
Intrade
Rasmussen Markets
RCP Average
RCP Latest Polls

What is this? THE MATH’s Daily Widget was created to track multiple daily sources which measure the potential success of Barack Obama’s presidential campaign. Projected Electoral Votes are on a scale of 0 to 538, with 270 being a majority, or projected win. Trading and Averages are on a scale of 0 to 100, with 50.1 being a majority, or projected win.

The Wigand Electoral Average uses public polling results to determine base states for both parties and a short list of swing states, and combines the actual electoral votes from base states with a weighted Intrade calculation for electoral votes from swing states to derive an average on a scale of 0 to 100. On this scale, greater than 50.00 is considered a win for Barack Obama. An average of 50.10 would yield 270 electoral votes, and an average of 100.00 would yield 538 electoral votes. More Information

As always, I’m open to your feedback and suggestions, and I will be happy to explain anything!

Feel free to use these charts and graphs anywhere on Democratic Underground.

Donate to the Obama Campaign today through DU’s donation link at Barack Obama’s website:
http://my.barackobama.com/page/outreach/view/main/du

[tekisui]

1. It's good to see MI moving out of mcpow's reach!

And, that MT swing is nice, too!. They way it sits right now, mcpow will have to take VA, CO and NV while defending all the others(OH, FL, NC)

Looking great! Thanks again.

[phrigndumass]

2. A new Michigan poll this week would be timely :)

We could finally kick it over to the Weak column with a good poll.

:donut: Good morning, tek! :hi:

[Demeter]

12. I'm On It Already!

From The People's Republic of Ann Arbor, which was my Limbaugh-quoting uncle's name for it.

The system is crashing, but I found the Widget somehow. Wonder what's happening?

(Did you do it, P-man?)

[phrigndumass]

19. It was my fault, the spreadsheet just burst :)

It's too big! I hit the save button nowadays and I have to wait 15 seconds for it to finish saving. One more graph and I'll cause another power outage in the northeast (1965 was my fault, too!) ...

[Yes We Did]

17. Palin could actually help McNasty in MI...

She sounds like a yooper... and I would know (being one)

[phrigndumass]

20. I think I've been living in a cave ... What's a yooper?

Teach me, O doggy of dem.

:hi:

[Demeter]

25. A Yooper Is a Native of the Upper Peninsula, Or UP (yew-pee)

in Michigan. The favorite entertainment, back in the 60's, in the UP was to go to the dump and watch the bears forage. Don't know what they do now, as I haven't been north of Troy since 1984....

[phrigndumass]

26. I wonder if there's a Yooper Independence Party (YIP)

Seceding from lower Michigan? YIP!

:7

[Demeter]

27. It Is an Uneasy Relationship

http://query.nytimes.com/gst/fullpage.html?res=990CE0D7153EF937A2575AC0A963958260

[phrigndumass]

28. Wow, and I was kidding too!

Swallowed the whole foot! :blush:

[Az]

21. Eh... she's better than Romney for us

Michigan would have gone red if McSame had picked Romney.

[fight4my3sons]

3. Good morning!

No new state polls because it was a holiday weekend? When do you think new ones will be out?

:bounce: :hi:

[phrigndumass]

4. The new state polls will be coming out by the dozens soon :)

I'm ready for 'em! The monster spreadsheet is all set to handle the rush. We'll probably see a few today that were conducted over the weekend.

:donut: Good morning! :hi: :hi:

(hope you're feeling better!)

[fight4my3sons]

7. Sorry to ask again, but

when is Maine due for another one? and wasn't NH one of the ones that hasn't been polled since Feb?

I'm feeling much better than I was, thanks! :)

[phrigndumass]

8. No need to be sorry :)

Rasmussen has been polling Maine in the middle of every month. The last poll was conducted on August 12, so it'll be soon. New Hampshire is a swing state, so it has been polled frequently. You may be thinking of Vermont ... no poll since 2/28, probably because it's a safe blue state.

States with Outdated Polls (Older Than 35 days):
Arkansas – Last Poll … 7/15
Delaware – Last Poll … 2/28
Hawaii – Last Poll … 2/28
North Dakota – Last Poll … 7/23
Oklahoma – Last Poll … 7/23
South Carolina – Last Poll … 7/23
South Dakota – Last Poll … 7/9
Vermont – Last Poll … 2/28
West Virginia – Last Poll – 6/2

:bounce:

[fight4my3sons]

9. yep, I was thinking of Vermont

Thanks


:bounce:

[myrna minx]

5. Good morning dear. I can't wait to see the new state polls after the announcement

of the McCain Palin dream team. :D

[phrigndumass]

6. You and me both!

The national polls are already showing a good jump, so the state polls should do the same :D

Palin may have been an anchorwoman (or sports or something) but now she's just an anchor.

:donut: Good morning! :hi:

[myrna minx]

38. Good evening, my dear. Again, thank you for all that you do.

:loveya:

[phrigndumass]

10. Off to work kick

:kick: Enjoy your day

[grantcart]

11. CNN taking a big hit on their poll

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=132x6876579

[phrigndumass]

15. We're thinking alike without comparing notes, lol

Good thread!

I noticed the new national polls today, at least three of them have Obama at 50% or more. :D

[Demeter]

13. It's So Lovely to See All Those Little LInes Turning Up Their Leading Edges Into Little Smiles

of joy for the retribution that is growing daily on the defilers of this once-great nation.

The North shall rise again! (Take that, Confederate revisionists!)

[phrigndumass]

16. True and Funny, all at once!

You are a person of many writing talents, Demeter :D

[Demeter]

24. Aw, Gee!

:blush:

[Fire_brand]

14. Question

The dotted lines in the projected popular vote totals now shows an upward trajectory, why is that? Couldn't this just be a brief upward bump? I remember a few months ago the projected popular vote total was treding downward for a while before the dotted line showed a downward trend.

[phrigndumass]

18. Good question! I made a change worth noting ...

We're officially in the third stage of the numbers history for this election cycle, or to put it another way, we've turned another corner. The first stage was Obama's rise from the time of his primary victory to around July 4. The second stage was his fall from July 4 to just prior to the convention. Since his numbers are trending up again, we're on the post-convention rise stage.

I used a linear trend line (straight) for the first stage. I switched to a poly-2 trend line (one curve) for the first and second stages together. Now I am using a poly-3 trend line for all three stages together.

If we see a fourth stage (a trend downward lasting a week or more), I'll switch to a poly-4 trend line for that, and so on.

Did that help? :hi:

The stages can be seen on this graph (green line):

[Fire_brand]

22. gotcha, thanks n/t

[phrigndumass]

23. Evening kick

:kick:

[dbmk]

29. K & R

Is the Wigand Assistant still running, Phrig?

[phrigndumass]

30. It's working perfectly! Best thing since sliced bread.

We've missed you lately ... So glad you popped in! What do you think of the decor?

:hi:

[dbmk]

32. You know me..

Its got graphs and numbers. Lots of graphs and lots of numbers. Result: Happy camper.

Been here all along, but I guess baby talk and stuff like that keeps pushing your posts out of sight. :)

I'll see if I can pop in to give a rec or two, while I am cruising hwy 1 and thereabouts for the next weeks. :bounce:

And I am amazed that I have managed to program something that has had 0 errors and only 1 needed update. :)

[phrigndumass]

34. Be sure to inflate your tires before cruising Highway 1, it saves petrol :)

GD: Palin, I call it. Enjoy your trip to the states!

[Awsi Dooger]

31. Alaska is no longer lean McCain

The trading price is above 90. That's quite a lean.

Not that Alaska was ever in play, even before Palin. State polls in Alaska always overstate Democratic strength by at least 4%.

That's what always amazes me about models that rely heavily on state polls. They take them at face value regardless of past history. I'm not sure I can remember a single cycle in which Alaska statewide polls accurately depicted the true margin between the two candidates in a major statewide race. Some of the examples were laughable, like 2002 when the final poll had Fran Ulmer within striking distance of Frank Murkowski. She was buried by 15%. Similar in 2004 when Knowles led Lisa Murkowski in literally every poll for more than a year, averaging in the 4% range, then Murkowski won by 4%.

A state with 44% self-identified conservatives is not a "lean" state, not in the real world where voting realities matter above graphs and charts.

The interesting aspect is the Begich/Stevens senate race. I'm positive that race is much closer than the current polling indicates. It will require tons of ballot splitting for Begich to win. But since he's from Anchorage, where the numbers are, he should be able to hold on and win narrowly. Tony Knowles also used a position as mayor of Anchorage to jumpstart higher political ambitions. But Knowles lost his first major statewide bid, for governor in 1990. That race also defied the polling, with Knowles losing by 8%.

At least Indiana has been properly shifted, out of the lean category.

Overall we're in great shape -- House, Senate and Obama. I hate to come across as negative but it irks me when out-of-reach states are hyped on DU, leading to false optimism. That happens every cycle, notably Georgia.

[phrigndumass]

36. I imagine the polls coming soon will move AK to the right

It was a dem partisan polling group that showed Obama leading there to begin with (Hays Research Group) with only 400 sampled. MOE was 4.9.

:hi:

[Willo]

33. Thank you.

Hey Phrig :hi:
I was looking for your post over the weekend.

Glad it wasn't that I missed it.

I refer to your widgets quite often. I appreciate the work you put into this.

Thanks.

[phrigndumass]

35. Thanks WIllo/Willo! :)

:hi:

[Willo]

37. LOL nt