Pollster rips CNN on "no bounce report" as "terrible, dishonest reporting

grantcart

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Tue Sep-02-08 02:00 AM
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Pollster rips CNN on "no bounce report" as "terrible, dishonest reporting

http://www.pollster.com/blogs/internal_measures_of_change_on.php

First was there a bounce ?

Internals show big jump for Obama after convention

September 1, 2008"Internal" Measures of Change on the CBS SurveyBy Mark Blumenthal

The just released CBS survey we posted a few minutes ago is one of the first of the post Democratic convention polls to include extensive "internal" measures on perceptions of the candidates. If you want to get beyond the ongoing obsession with convention bounces, the CBS results pdf is worth reading in full.

Most useful within in are the measures that show the biggest changes since the pre-convention CBS poll conducted in mid August. Some examples:

50% say Obama "has made it clear what he would do as president;" up 9 points (from 41%)
58% say Obama is "tough enough;" up 10 points (from 48% in July)
67% of Obama voters say they "enthusiastically support" him; up 19 points (from 48%) before the convention

37% rate Joe Biden favorably; up 23 points (from 13%)
41% rate Michelle Obama favorably; up 13 points (from 28%)
52% rate Hillary Clinton favorably; up 7 points (from 45%)
At the same time, several measures show little or no change since mid-August:

39% rate Obama favorably; unchanged since mid-August

44% say Obama has "prepared himself well enough for the job of president;" unchanged since mid-August
McCain's ratings are unchanged; from 34-33% favorable/unfavorable in mid-August to 35-34% now.

48% say McCain "will generally continue George W. Bush's policies;" up only one point (from 47%).
Tune in again next week to see how the

Then pollster Michael MacDonald takes on CNN's continual reporting that there was no bounce:

Don't go grocery shopping with someone from CNN, because they do not know their apples from their oranges.

I was puzzled about this statement in today's "CNN poll-of-polls":

�Any bounce Obama might have received out of his party�s convention appears to have largely negated by McCain�s surprise selection of Gov. Palin as his running mate,� said CNN Political Editor Mark Preston. �This race has been close all along, and is unlikely to change.�
What got me scratching my head is that today's CNN poll-of-polls includes CNN/ORC, USAToday/Gallup, and CBS, the latter two are reporting post-convention bounces for Obama in their poll analysis and even the CNN/ORC poll shows a 1 point movement towards Obama (this poll increasingly appears to be an outlier, btw).

Mystery solved when I looked at the previous CNN poll-of-polls that serves as the basis for comparison. (cut and paste this into your browser, since my posting would otherwise have too many URLs in it and be held up for approval):

politicalticker.blogs.cnn.com/2008/08/24/obama-sees-slight-rise-in-poll-of-polls/

In this poll-of-polls, the average came from ABC/WashPost, Fox/Opinion Dynamics, and the Gallup Daily tracker. I do not believe the two other organizations have released new polls yet, but the Gallup tracker shows a significant Obama bump over the course of the convention, too.

Bottom line, CNN is cherry picking polls to further the finding in the CNN/ORC poll that there is no bounce for Obama. This is truely terrible, dishonest reporting. What's dumb is that we can expect a bounce for McCain, too, which most likely will cancel out the Obama bounce. But for CNN, we will go through two conventions and they will report that the conventions had no effect when, in fact, some very real changes in public opinion have occurred - all so that they can protect their precious black-box CNN/ORC poll from criticism.

Looking back at my posting, I should add that all the polls in the CNN poll-of-polls were conducted after the Palin announcement, too. Palin did not cancel out an Obama convention bounce, as is alleged by CNN.

Pollster rips CNN on "no bounce report" as "terrible, dishonest reporting

First was there a bounce ? Internals show big jump for Obama after conventionSeptember 1, 2008"Internal" Measures of Change on the CBS SurveyBy Mark Blumenthal

Don't go grocery shopping with someone from CNN, because they do not know their apples from their oranges.

First was there a bounce ?

Internals show big jump for Obama after convention

September 1, 2008"Internal" Measures of Change on the CBS SurveyBy Mark Blumenthal