Why did he pick Palin? How do we address the choice?

[RichardRay]

Here's what I think:

Why did he do it?

1) McCain realized that he was in a losing position, but it's not clear at this point just how badly he is going to lose, but he was on the short side of the deal.

2) The pool of highly qualified candidates for the position who were willing to be picked was a bit shallow. Especially the ones the McCain himself wanted.

3) He needed a 'game changer'.


What did he do?

He tossed the long one:

1) McCain has a problem with the far right Christian fundamentalist wing of his party; Palin will certainly shore up that part of the base.

2) There is some number of women who may be reachable on this basis. Nobody knows just how many, and we here at DU can't believe it's a very big number, but the actual number is unknown and Palin will appeal.

3) The rural and mountain West is in play this year. Palin's governorship of Alaska, her hunting/fishing/snow machine riding, tight jeans and snappy repartee plays well in this venue (I live in Wyoming). Again, not known how successful it will be, but it might have legs.

4) Some number of voters who don't have any other way to make a choice may find her attractive. We know there are lots of folks who are still in a quandary on the day before the election. No reason they should be, but they have a decision-making disorder. Palin could pull some of them the same way impulse items at the check out counter do.

5) She throws a bit of a wrench in the works for the Obama/Biden campaign. Barack is playing it well, and I expect Joe will, too, but there are some land mines they have to be careful to avoid. Either of them could toss off an innocuous comment that, with vigorous spin by the right, could take a few more voters across the line (or at least make them stay home).


So, not a big, earthshaking strategic initiative, and not a blind blunder; it's just a bunch of 'a bit here' and 'a bit there'. If it is a tight race now, that could be all it takes to make the difference.


What do we do about it?

We counter her the same way: no big conspiracy theories, no scandal mongering or muckraking, we just take as many of those voters back as we can, one by one.

1) There are many deeply religious Christians who have social consciences; really, there are. Don't give them up automatically.

2) There are some women who are using the gender issue as an excuse to do what they want to do anyway; don't bother with them. For a other women it's not so set in stone. Ranting won't help, treat them like any other fence sitting voter and just work the issues.

3) Ditto those of us in the rural and mountain West; she's superficially attractive to some 'Western values' voters, but only just. Stay on issues of sustainable economic improvement in our states and Palin's performance in her own state (economic improvement linked solely to the rise in oil prices).

4) Those with decision making disorders will jump the direction they jump in the last 24 to 72 hours before they vote. There will be a crescendo of campaign effort battering them. Try to reach through that noise and make a direct contact with any of them you can identify. Not phone banking or text blasting or signs on street corners - direct one to one contact. Remember Tip O'Neill's rule - 'Sometimes you just gotta ask.'

5) Cross your fingers that the campaign stays as skillful as they have up to this point and continues to become more skillful, and don't add to the land mines they have to beware of.



We'd all like to see the Republicans crash and burn on this; some big conflagration of scandal and opprobrium that would make them not want to come out of their holes until the next cicada triple dip. If they do it to themselves that's great, but I don't think we can do it to them. We win by the simple day to day process of moving peoples' hearts and minds. That's what Barack is doing; we can do the same.

Venceremos.

[Lucinda]

1. He picked her because of her energy/environment knowledge and because she was a woman.

[RichardRay]

3. Energy/environment big in the West.

That's a big issue in the West and often badly played by the folks over on the east and west sides of the continent. That's where that strength will really show.

The gender thing will be interesting to watch. I don't want to believe it will work out well for him, but who knows?

[Lucinda]

11. I've been saying (as have others) that McCains only chance of staying in the game

AT ALL was a VP pick that created some excitement for the Reps. They were ambivalent about McCain.

Once Biden was chosen I said he'd pick a woman, if he could find the right one, and had been discussing Palin on this board with other people who were looking at McCains options. She'd been on his list since early Spring and several of the RW boards were pushing for her as early as March.

Her state is sitting on huge oil and gas reserves, she's passionate and articulate about making use of them while we develop renewable sources and cut back our dependence on foreign sources, is actively working to develop alternatives, and she's quick on her feet.

She may or may not handle the pressure well, but I see why he chose her.

[FVZA_Colonel]

20. As for the environment,

we could hammer that she disagrees with the scientific consensus and doesn't believe in global warming.

[navarth]

2. Excellent post. I hate to say this, but

She will appeal to the moron vote, And we are overwhelmingly outnumbered by them. does that make me a dick? An elitist? So be it, I call it as I see it.

I think the OP is right, we can't beat them by trying to point out she's a moron, and in doing so, offend the morons.

[Catshrink]

10. I don't think Obama had the moron vote anyway.

or the fundie/whackjob vote.

[navarth]

12. maybe, but..

those that are on the fence, you know, like the 'somewhat moronic' might be open to Obama and we might push them away if we talk to them about anything other than stuff they'll listen to...like the financial issues.

[tinrobot]

4. You only take big risks if you're losing.

He's losing.

[RichardRay]

5. Yes, but by how much?

It could be tight, it could be overwhelming. If it's tight, then every vote McCain can pry out of Barack's camp might be the one that makes a difference. If it's not close then he didn't lose anything by taking his shot.

[ChimpersMcSmirkers]

6. His reckless, politically calculating judgement makes him unfit for command.

[WindRiverMan]

7. No, as an Alaskan who knows Palin better than most

we need to hammer her lack of foreign policy experience.

Her lack of knowledge on national affairs.


Exploit her vulnerbalitiy due to Troopergate.


Crow about her failure as mayor of Wasilla.


In other words, the last two days need to be the apogee for Sarah Palin. She must be shown for what she is. A decent small-state governor who has as much businesses being second in command to the nuclear arsenal as I do. This was a horribly irresponsible pick by McCain.

[RichardRay]

13. Agreed, and we don't do that by trying to pile driver her into

the snow.

I'm going to guess that folks in Alaska and folks in Wyoming are at least somewhat alike. The way I reach my neighbors is to listen politely, agree where I can and make my objections neatly, clearly, honestly and without trying to make anybody evil, just wrong.

Am I off base on that?

[navarth]

14. Can you expand on those?

What's this about a failure as mayor?

Does troopergate have legs?

The rest are obvious.

[Lucinda]

15. Foreign policy inexperience wont work well IMO.

You have a multi-billion dollar foreign trade industry in your state and two countries on your borders, which give her some footing in foreign relations and national security.

Biden and McCain are the foreign relations guys on these tickets. IMO attacking her there leaves Obama open.

What is there online about her mayoral failures? I wasn't finding any solid info last night, just the rumor stuff.

[RichardRay]

17. To some extent, just ignore her...

Go after McCain, continue to link him to Bush. Make Palin an afterthought, not a primary target. I don't know that I like all the connotations of the word, but what comes to mind is to trivialize her. Her experiences are not trivial over all, but they sure are when it comes to qualifying her to be Vice President and next in line for the presidency.

[WindRiverMan]

25. Have you seen Wasilla?

It is a giant freaking trailer park, and the Mat-Su Valley is known as "Valley Trash". She built a huge sports complex, allows gravel pits everywhere, had no master development plan...its a shithole and Palin helped dig the latrine.

[scarletwoman]

8. Excellent post. Glad to see some rational thinking going on here. k&r (nt)

[nycmjkfan]

9. The answer is quite simple for McCain

he thought she was HOT!!

[Virginian]

21. If he had wanted to take Hillary's disenchanted, he

might have done better with Liddy Dole. The only problem there is that she is almost as old as he is, she just doesn't show it.

I think he chose a MILF beauty contestant to go after the youth vote.

[scarletwoman]

16. Public service kick for a rational post. (nt)

[BlooInBloo]

18. I thought she was catholic?

[RBInMaine]

19. It's a "PANDER CHOICE". Here's how you address it:

He is pandering to women, especially working class women, pure and simple. What to do? Simple. You stay objective and point out her FAR RIGHT social issues and positions and any FAR RIGHT anti-family, anti-woman, anti-choice policies she has been behind. You hammer on the EXTREMISM in this person, and also her total lack of ANY national level experience let alone MINIMAL state and local level experience. AND, you have every and all working-class-women women pols get out there against her: THIS IS WHERE HILLARY COMES IN !! She has to say that Palin "aint no Hillary." And all other women pols who were behind Hillary need to do the same. Barack NEEDS to campaign with Bill and Hill and so does Biden. Don't worry. This is going to be seen for what it is. A cynical PANDER job pure and simple.

[Ichingcarpenter]

22. McCain is a lousy craps player..... he should have past the dice

and he didn't. I really believe this was roll of the dice.

[Arm Chair Politician]

23. Palin Flip-Flops, Alaskan residents furious!

If you read the Anchorage Daily News today you will find that
Palin has already been proven to flip-flop for votes and is
now pandering to non-Alaskans for votes.  The most recent is
the 'Bridge to no-where'.  

This is a great article, unfortunately I don't have enough
posts to create a new thread.

http://www.adn.com/sarahpalin/story/511471.html

Read the article, you will see that people close to her won't
vote for her...even those who ran her campaign for Governor.

Isn't it odd that no national media is following up on the
Alaskan stories about Sarah?

[RichardRay]

24. Great article. I'll put it in a post and credit you. n/t

[Arm Chair Politician]

26. Thanks. We have much to do to educate everyone on Palin.