It's the approval ratings, not the polls

[nothingshocksmeanymore]

No incumbent in recent history who has gone on to get re-elected has had their approval rating dip below 50% in an election year.

Polls may show swing states leaning toward Bush and counting electoral chickens may be maddening, but history is on our side. What the recent polls mean is that not only must Kerry and those people in swing states work a bit harder (as well as reinforcing the vote in "safe states," but that there must be an all out effort to spread discontent with Bush AMONGST voters in swing states.

[qanda]

1. What are the approval ratings?

I hardly ever hear them anymore.

[nothingshocksmeanymore]

2. Last I heard it's around 51%

but it dipped to 46% in May

[cspiguy]

3. WJC's was around 51% in the summer of 1996

http://abcnews.go.com/sections/politics/DailyNews/poll_...

His job ratings broke out of the midrange starting in mid-1996, just as consumer confidence began to rally on the strength of growing incomes, low inflation and a strong job market. Before summer 1996 — meaning before the recovery hit home — Clinton's job approval rating averaged 51 percent. After summer 1996, it averaged 61 percent.

Put them together and Clinton's career average job rating is 57 percent, smack in the midrange for postwar presidents, alongside Ronald Reagan and Lyndon Johnson.

[nothingshocksmeanymore]

5. But it never dipped beow 50% as Bush's did

and he was on his way to a 10 point jump by this time as your article indicates..Bush NEEDS that 10 point jump and he isn't going to get it on the economy.

[jean]

4. That's heartening, but no incumbent has had BBV at their disposal like

bubble boy Bush does. I would love to see numbers reassuring us that even WITH massive vote hacking, this incumbent is toast.

Apparently there is a potential to affect as many as one million votes, if lying, cheating, thieving RNC/PNACer's can get all cylinders firing on their steal the vote action plan. (according to Bev Harris)

[michigandem2]

6. i heard if an incumbent is under 50%

in the polls..then that is NOT a good sign for "mr bush" so this is nothing..people that are undecided are typically going to follow in Kerry's side...

there was a guy on CNN about an hour ago talking about statistics and what these polls generally mean...and they mean Bush is not in a good position

[Democat]

7. That means that Kerry should go "negative" to bring Bush down

Bush is using a two fronted strategy - attack Kerry and build himself up.

Kerry, early on, was trying to be "positive" and didn't want to attack Bush, just promote his own agenda.

If Bush's approval rating is really going to decide this, then Kerry will need to bring down Bush's approval rating. That means going on the attack, not playing defense.

[nothingshocksmeanymore]

9. He can't and it's not a matter of hubris or courage

statistically, negative campaigning supresses voter turnout and suppressed voter turnout almost ALWAYS favors Republicans but for in SOLIDLY Dem states...Grey Davis used a profoundly negative campaign to HIS advantage in 02 but it DID suppress voter turnout and look what it did for his approval ratings.

[David Zephyr]

8. Exactly.

Bush's approval ratings are very, very poor.

Further, the American people IN EVERY POLL state without question that THE NATION IS ON THE WRONG TRACK.

And...with regards to the polls: Kerry is tearing Bush's ass up in the battleground states.

The INCUMBENT is in deep shit AND....

THE AMERICAN PEOPLE NOW WANT A CHANGE.

[alcuno]

10. I always thought it was right track/wrong track that mattered.

I mean if you don't think the country is headed on the right track, why would you vote for the incumbent?

[oasis]

11. Push Bush's negatives. That should be easy enough to do.

:thumbsup: