Rasmussen, 8/28: Obama 45%, McCain 44% (with leaners, tied at 47%)

[highplainsdem]

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/election_20082/2008_presidential_election/daily_presidential_tracking_poll

Thursday, August 28, 2008

The Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll for Thursday shows hints of a modest convention bounce building for Barack Obama. The Democrat gained a point from yesterday and now attracts 45% of the vote nationwide while John McCain earns 44%. When "leaners" are included, it’s Obama 47% and McCain 47% (see recent daily results). Sign up for a free daily e-mail update.

Tracking poll results are based upon nightly telephone interviews and reported on a three-day rolling average basis. Today’s update is the first to reflect the convention period--just over two-thirds of the interviews were completed after Michelle Obama’s speech on Monday night. Tracking Polls are released at 9:30 a.m. Eastern Time each day.

Reviewing recent single-night polling data—rather than the three-day average--shows that Obama lost ground immediately following the selection of Joe Biden as his running mate. That had little or nothing to do with Biden and everything to do with the fact that the running mate was not named Hillary Clinton. The impact of that choice was reflected in the polling results released Tuesday and Wednesday showing modest gains for McCain.

However, events are moving rapidly this season and the impact of the convention is starting to replace the impact of the Vice Presidential announcement. New polling data shows that 74% of Democrats say their convention has unified the party and 84% believe Hillary Clinton’s speech will help Obama in the fall.

Obama’s poll numbers have improved over the past couple of nights and today’s update shows a tie race because it includes a mix of both recent trends. But it seems likely that Obama will end the convention with a modest lead over McCain. Then, of course, it will be time for the Republican Vice Presidential pick and, next week, the GOP convention.

Last week, before the conventions began, Obama led by one to three points each day.

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McCain is now viewed favorably by 55% of the nation’s voters, Obama by 54% (see trends). Confidence in the War on Terror has reached an all-time high while the number who say Congress is doing a good or excellent job matched an all-time low. Other key stats of Election 2008 can still be seen at Obama-McCain: By the Numbers. Data from Rasmussen Markets currently gives Obama a 59.0% chance of winning the White House.

The Rasmussen Reports Balance of Power Calculator currently shows Obama leading in states with 193 Electoral College votes while McCain leads in states with 183 votes (see Quick Campaign Overview). When leaners are included, it’s Obama 264, McCain 247 (see 50-State Summary).

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