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Now I'm really depressed about Kerry's chances

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lancdem Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Aug-27-04 11:55 AM
Original message
Now I'm really depressed about Kerry's chances
For days, I've been figuring he had a strategy that was working, but I've been checking the state polls today, and they are not good. Look at http://www.dcpoliticalreport.com

Bush is now ahead in electoral votes for the first time in months, and some of the up-for-grabs states are now leaning his way, including blue states such as Wisconsin and Iowa. He's even gaining ground in Pennsylvania, where Kerry was leading by a decent margin for a couple months. And Bush is entering his convention, so it's only going to get worse. I'm sure the Kerry internal polls are showing it, too.

I'm probably overreacting, but I'm so pissed the Swift Boat smear worked I could scream. Kerry had momentum, and now it's gone, all because of a Rove-engineered lie. I don't mean to bring everybody down, but I haven't felt this pessimistic and angry for a long time. I know Kerry's a good man with experienced campaign people, but it seems like we Dems get played by Rove over and over. Why can't we ever beat them at their game?

All I can say is, if people fall for such lies and vote for Bush, they get what they deserve. :(
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Name removed Donating Member (0 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Aug-27-04 11:57 AM
Response to Original message
1. Deleted message
Message removed by moderator. Click here to review the message board rules.
 
lancdem Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Aug-27-04 11:59 AM
Response to Reply #1
4. Who said I wasn't on the team?
Jesus, lighten up.
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Nordic65 Donating Member (276 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Aug-27-04 11:59 AM
Response to Reply #1
6. Not nice, but sadly very true...
n/t
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liberalnurse Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Aug-27-04 11:59 AM
Response to Reply #1
7. Thats a little uncalled for......
Someone shares their feelings....legitimate ones at that and you want to tell them to hit the highway! Poor judgment on your part. We need to process these real feelings of frustration....without doing so, we can not re-surge to win.
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markses Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Aug-27-04 12:14 PM
Response to Reply #7
35. I don't think so
I've never "shared feelings" in between periods in a hockey game. This whole namby-pamby exercise is counter-productive.
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lancdem Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Aug-27-04 12:18 PM
Response to Reply #35
39. If you don't like it
then stay away from the thead, OK?
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markses Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Aug-27-04 12:48 PM
Response to Reply #39
61. No, not OK
I still want to get my shots in about whining.
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lancdem Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Aug-27-04 01:43 PM
Response to Reply #61
87. If it's that important to you, fine
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markses Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Aug-27-04 01:47 PM
Response to Reply #87
92. It is
n/t
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TWiley Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Aug-27-04 03:36 PM
Response to Reply #92
121. What the hell are you whining about?
Your argument is so twisted that I cannot figure out what it is.

Here <dispenses hankie> have a tissue for your issue.
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markses Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Aug-27-04 03:56 PM
Response to Reply #121
125. A rhyme!
Edited on Fri Aug-27-04 03:57 PM by markses
Nice touch. You seem to mistake derision for whining. :shrug:
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TWiley Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Aug-28-04 05:03 AM
Response to Reply #125
148. Derision?
So you have produced an emotionally based attack (jeering) on an individual and you are now trying to pass it off as some kind of intellectually enlightened attack on the argument?

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markses Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Aug-28-04 08:49 AM
Response to Reply #148
149. Not at all
I admit several times in this thread that my attack is purely emotional. Derision is emotionally inflected. I make no pretense to argument here. I'm trying to rile people up, and it has been remarkably successful.
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liberalnurse Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Aug-27-04 12:36 PM
Response to Reply #35
55. This is certainly not a hockey game....
*bush has most of the cards; media, money, a good used car-salesman line; they control a "Full House" in Washington, DC....yea, were up against a powerful adversary and they have the edge. Where do we punch a hole? I'm stressed! I do everything I can to spread the good word but *bush knows, his campaign knows and has baited the McDonald voters for 4 years. They are great manipulators.


This is what we are up against and I'm scared too.
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markses Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Aug-27-04 12:49 PM
Response to Reply #55
62. And taking people down by constantly worrying is helpful how?
:shrug:
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renotyme Donating Member (106 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Aug-27-04 02:31 PM
Response to Reply #62
105. and telling an ally to get the fuck out is helpful how?
we may disagree on tactics but we are fighting the same war, right?
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markses Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Aug-27-04 03:21 PM
Response to Reply #105
116. I didn't tell an ally to
get the fuck out. I clearly set up a choice.
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coalition_unwilling Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Aug-27-04 12:07 PM
Response to Reply #1
21. That's not very nice
We are all in this together and when one of us hurts, we all hurt.

I too am depressed, because veterans (who now apparently favor Bush by an 18% margin, acc. to a poll I saw yesterday?) are so easily duped into voting against their own interests.
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markses Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Aug-27-04 12:13 PM
Response to Reply #21
33. Oh, sure
We should all have an "I'm depressed" session in the middle of a war. Buck the fuck up and push on.
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coalition_unwilling Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Aug-27-04 12:31 PM
Response to Reply #33
49. When Bush dismissed anti-war protests on 2/15/2003
as a "focus group", he pissed me off. When you dismiss lancdem and my feelings, you piss me off. Why should I care what you think or say if you don't care what we think or say?
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markses Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Aug-27-04 12:50 PM
Response to Reply #49
63. Well at least you are now pissed off
Use that energy. It is far more useful than the "I'm so depressed" nonsense from other quarters. Get pissed.
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coalition_unwilling Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Aug-27-04 01:10 PM
Response to Reply #63
70. You didn't answer my question
"Why should I care what you think or say if you don't care what we think or say?"

If all you think is that what we think or say isn't appropriate to your team -- "Get on the team or get the fuck out" -- I have a hard time distinguishing you from the forces of the dark side.

So let me ask you directly: how do you feel about the current political climate? You're obviously not depressed, so would you say you are 'angry', 'optimistic', 'pessimistic', or 'frustrated' (maybe with nay-sayers like me :)
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markses Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Aug-27-04 01:37 PM
Response to Reply #70
80. I don't give a fuck whether you care
Truly.

I am pissed off, and fighting. I don't have the time or energy to be depressed or frustrated.
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ibegurpard Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Aug-27-04 01:40 PM
Response to Reply #80
83. Then shut the fuck up and let the REST OF US encourage those
who are down. Do you think what YOU are saying is productive????

Jesus Fucking H. Christ!
:grr:
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markses Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Aug-27-04 01:41 PM
Response to Reply #83
84. I won't shut the fuck up
I'll keep pushing until this depression bullshit ends. You don't like it? Too bad.
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ibegurpard Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Aug-27-04 01:42 PM
Response to Reply #84
86. Yeah? Well, then keep expecting to be called for your obnoxious
asshole-like behavior. Don't like it? Lick my nads.
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markses Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Aug-27-04 01:44 PM
Response to Reply #86
88. I don't mind in the least bit
You can call me obnoxious or asshole all you want. I couldn't care less. Can't take it? Once again, too bad for you.
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Cha Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Aug-27-04 06:07 PM
Response to Reply #83
135. Exactly!
I was going to jump in and say something but you said it so eloquently, ibegurpard!
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markses Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Aug-28-04 08:52 AM
Response to Reply #135
151. Ay yay yay
Bag the blah blah blah, woulja?
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coalition_unwilling Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Aug-27-04 01:41 PM
Response to Reply #80
85. I am sorry to hear that
Truly.

I am glad you are pissed off and fighting. Do you have any explanation for why veterans favor Bush by 18%, acc. to most recent polling data (in wake of SBV ad campaign)?

Can you at least understand why such a statistic would make one depressed or frustrated?
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markses Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Aug-27-04 01:45 PM
Response to Reply #85
89. No, I can't understand it
You get bad news, you buck up and move on. This is not a time for weakness.

Tru-fucking-ly.
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renotyme Donating Member (106 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Aug-27-04 02:32 PM
Response to Reply #89
107. a divided house will not stand
your hostility helps no one but the repukes.
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markses Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Aug-27-04 03:22 PM
Response to Reply #107
117. Nope
The constant bellyaching helps no one but the reactive forces. "Poor me." I say "Get busy."
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Stephanie Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Aug-27-04 12:35 PM
Response to Reply #1
52. Second
.
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Joe Fields Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Aug-27-04 12:54 PM
Response to Reply #1
66. May I remind you that this is a discussion board. People
who have opinions should feel free to discuss them without other people shouting them down and telling to "shut the fuck up."

You remark is the type I would expect the opposition to say.

I don't agree with the poster's comment, but I appreciate his or her right to express it. You should do the same. After all, we ARE democrats.
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markses Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Aug-27-04 01:01 PM
Response to Reply #66
69. I never said "shut the fuck up"
And I am also expressing my opinion: That lancdem's bullhorning of his/her "depression" is counter-productive. I believe in his/her right to express it, and I appreciate my right to tell the poster that such expressions are counter-productive. So what's the story, righteous one? I don't get to say: The more you announce your depression, the more you infect others bwith your pessimism and bad feelings?

Besides, I don't have the power to shut lancdem down. I can only argue that such expressions are not only useless, but also harmful. Don't like it? Too bad.

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quaoar Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Aug-27-04 01:18 PM
Response to Reply #69
72. You certainly do have a right to your opinion
But don't you think it's equally counter-productive to treat someone so harshly? Wouldn't it be more productive to point out reasons why he/she shouldn't be so worried? Perhaps that way, others who feel the same as Lancdem but are afraid to say so might read it and take heart.
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markses Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Aug-27-04 01:36 PM
Response to Reply #72
79. No...I'm countering an emotion with an emotion
If lancdem is depressed, I'd rather lancdem be angry. If it takes my saying "Stop being a fucking baby" to get lancdem angry, so be it. We don't need the sad trip.

Second, I don't want people to identify with lancdem. I don't want people to say "Ooooh, I'm depressed too, boo hoo." That's the worst thing that could happen, and the reason lancdem's post is counter-productive. It feeds other people's sad passions. They need to get energized (even if angry) not get into a circle jerk of sadness.
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lancdem Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Aug-27-04 01:48 PM
Response to Reply #79
93. I AM ANGRY
I made that clear in my post. The pessimism may be temporary, but the anger is not.
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Name removed Donating Member (0 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Aug-27-04 01:50 PM
Response to Reply #93
94. Deleted message
Message removed by moderator. Click here to review the message board rules.
 
markses Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Aug-27-04 03:23 PM
Response to Reply #94
118. Easy chief
You're over the line
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coalition_unwilling Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Aug-27-04 01:52 PM
Response to Reply #93
95. I'm with you and (I think)
Edited on Fri Aug-27-04 01:53 PM by coalition_unwilling
perhaps the problem is with the word "Depressed". As I examine my own feelings, I think the word that most aptly describes my feelings is 'frustrated'. As for anger, I've got that in massive quantities. I'm trying to reach that Martin Luther King, Jr. place of righteous anger, rather than the inchoate rage I've been feeling over the past 3.5 years. But it's a strugg.e
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lancdem Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Aug-27-04 01:54 PM
Response to Reply #95
97. You could be right
Frustrated would be more accurate, and less prone to producing inflammatory responses. :)
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bobd Donating Member (473 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Aug-27-04 01:27 PM
Response to Reply #1
78. Wowser! You're one mean guy!
Why do you have to be so mean-spirited over someone's heart-felt comment. I'm glad I don't have to live/work/hang-out with you. Jeez Louise!

Bob D.
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markses Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Aug-27-04 01:38 PM
Response to Reply #78
81. Yup
I never said I wasn't an asshole. That said, I'm glad I'm not surrounded by mealy-mouthed whiners.
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scottcsmith Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Aug-27-04 05:05 PM
Response to Reply #81
132. John Kerry needs to get angry
Someone has given him spectacularly bad advise on this whole Swift boat vet nonsense. Kerry is now on the defensive when he should be jabbing Bush over his dismal domestic policy and the sorry state of the economy. But no, he's fighting off the Swift boat vets, and all of the media's attention is on this fight, and the spotlight has shifted away from Bush. It's feeling like 1988 all over again. Kerry is losing his momentum. He can turn this situation around, and I hope he does, by ignoring the Swift boat vets and getting himself ready for the debates next month.

My .02
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cidliz2004 Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Aug-27-04 02:02 PM
Response to Reply #1
103. Your answer seems to come more out of fear
than it does anything else.

It's kind of like "If your not with us your against us"

or

"When the country is at war, we shouldn't voice our opinions about our doubts on that war - it is unpatriotic."

Scarey huh? When your answer sounds like a Repub answer, it is time for some self re examination.

Polls are eroneous, if you really believe most of what these polls are saying you are being led around by the nose.

The polls are published by the media...M E D I A.... Think breathe and fight harder.
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markses Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Aug-27-04 03:24 PM
Response to Reply #103
119. Who me?
I don't believe the polls, and I ain't depressed, and I'm encouraging lancdem to fight. No fear here.
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LiberalVoice Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Aug-27-04 11:58 AM
Response to Original message
2. The only problem is...
we get what they deserve too!

We still have a little more time. We'll see what happens.
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onehandle Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Aug-27-04 11:58 AM
Response to Original message
3. The swift dip is coming.
It will counter the "bump" Bush will get after dancing on the 9/11 victims graves next week.

Then....The Debates. Bush will be destroyed.
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lancdem Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Aug-27-04 12:00 PM
Response to Reply #3
8. I hope so
I will be encouraged if Bush gets a miniscule bounce.
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Nickster Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Aug-27-04 11:59 AM
Response to Original message
5. Buck up little soldier
Tie that helmet on and hold your chin up high. We got tons of work to do and we should ALWAYS be working as if we are 10 pts behind. I don't believe any of these crap polls anyways, but I'm quite confident that we are gonna see Kerry in a Landslide!
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lancdem Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Aug-27-04 12:02 PM
Original message
Thanks
I know we still have a shot, but I just wish someone would nail Karl Rove once and for all. It still might happen.
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swag Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Aug-27-04 12:01 PM
Response to Original message
9. Cheer up and get busy. Let this little dip be a good motivator
And if that isn't enough for you, hang around Sam Wang's site at Princeton:

http://synapse.princeton.edu/~sam/pollcalc.html
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JohnKleeb Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Aug-27-04 12:01 PM
Response to Original message
10. I wouldn't worry
Kerry isn't the greatest starter there is but when the election or campaign gets to the stretch, you see Kerry at his best, so I would expect around October-November to be when Kerry does the turn around, that will propel him to a solid victory.
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Joylaughter Donating Member (498 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Aug-27-04 12:27 PM
Original message
KERRY WINS
The future is written. It is the past that keeps changing.
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caledesi Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Aug-27-04 12:53 PM
Response to Original message
65. Great line Mol! nt
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Joylaughter Donating Member (498 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Aug-27-04 12:59 PM
Response to Reply #65
67. Thanks!
I heard it somewhere on the tube. The past is constantly rewritten but the future is set.

KERRY WINS. Just keep saying it. KERRY WINS. KERRY WINS.KERRY WINS.
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Cha Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Aug-27-04 06:11 PM
Response to Original message
136. That's a good one!
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Julien Sorel Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Aug-27-04 12:01 PM
Response to Original message
11. And I've still seen no evidence the Swift Hoaxers had any impact.
Is there one poll out there that shows people have changed their mind because of those honorless men?
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fujiyama Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Aug-27-04 03:41 PM
Response to Reply #11
122. Kerry has lost some ground
since after the convention and now. The Shit Boat Liars have been a distraction...hyped by a wothless, lazy media. Then again, we shouldn't have expected the post convention bounce to have lasted. The numbers were probably slightly inflated anyways.

Basically it looks like the two are tied going into the convention. Bush will get a bounce. Hopefully that will dwindle quickly and Kerry will kick his ass in the debates.
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Julien Sorel Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Aug-27-04 04:14 PM
Response to Reply #122
127. I always expected Kerry to lose some ground.
So did objective methods of campaign observation (the political futures, for example). I still have seen no direct link between the Swift Hoax and Kerry's lull. I do agree with the part about distraction. Thanks in large part to the nervous nellies, the campaign seems to have lost the thread a little bit, although not as much as it could have.
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bunkerbuster1 Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Aug-27-04 04:34 PM
Response to Reply #127
130. Don't forget that Kerry had gained among veterans just after the DNC.
He got a little bit of a bump. The Slime Boaters took that away. That's about the extent of the back and forth.

And I feel pretty confident at this point that it's Kerry's race to lose. Not overconfident, it's just that GWB has an incredible hill to climb. The 'pugs are incredibly cocky of course, and they believe they can win.

But I think Kerry will wind up taking a majority of electoral votes.

And part of me actually hopes he loses the popular vote. More on that in another thread.
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tabasco Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Aug-27-04 12:02 PM
Response to Original message
12. If they are too stupid to recognize liars, cheats and crooks ...
I'm not sure they deserve what they get, but they certainly are stupid. We will all suffer if Bush gets elected. Do not despair but try to convince one or two voters. Get a couple draft age people to register to vote. I do not see many people that I know in love with Bush. I do know several repubs who will not vote for Bush. Don't believe the stupid polls. The corporate media is a powerful enemy of the people, but I still have hope that the people will have the sense and decency to throw these crooks into the street.
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Entente Donating Member (97 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Aug-27-04 12:02 PM
Response to Original message
13. The stories ab Vietnam
have made me admire Kerry even more. Goodness, What a brave man!
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H2O Man Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Aug-27-04 12:02 PM
Response to Original message
14. You are over-reacting, my friend......
Bush is not moving ahead. The polls are not accurate. Expect the republicans to get a slight surge in the next week, but do NOT get discouraged. We're right were we should be, and the republicans are shitting their pants. Believe it.

This is one of the good old 15 round heavyweight championship fights from the past. We don't need to win every minute of every round. In fact, we don't need to win every round. We just need to win the fight.

When the fight gets towards the later rounds, and the opponent starts throwing his best shots, you just dig a few in his gut. Awful hard to defend yourself when you got the wind knocked outta ya. And, my friend, our side is in perfect position to knock the fucking wind out of the republicans in September. (Excuse my cursing, but I get excited.) We're on our way to a big win. They'll try some dirty tactics, for sure. But we'll kick their asses.
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lancdem Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Aug-27-04 12:06 PM
Response to Reply #14
20. I was worried because the state polls were showing movement
Bush's way. I guess the race is still close, though, and that means Kerry is in the running.
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freeminder Donating Member (407 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Aug-27-04 04:09 PM
Response to Reply #20
126. and remember, if a contender is close to the incumbent at this time
in the race, It's a VERY BAD sign for the incumbent!

At least that's what I read here on DU about american politics.

Only vote theft or terrabuse could hand it to Bush, and it would NOT go unnoticed but instead lead to major....insurgencies I think.

Not twice.
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mac56 Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Aug-27-04 12:10 PM
Original message
Rope-a-dope!


photo cred: float-like-a-butterfly.de
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H2O Man Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Aug-27-04 12:29 PM
Response to Original message
47. oh, yeah!
Manilla, the most brutal heavyweight championship fight ever. Great example of a fight that had three distinct stages: Ali wins the first 6 rounds; Frazier comes back with some vicious attacks from 7 to 11; and Ali is just too much after that. Man!
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Cha Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Aug-27-04 06:13 PM
Response to Reply #14
137. Ahhh! The voice of reason!
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American liberal Donating Member (915 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Aug-27-04 07:39 PM
Response to Reply #14
141. nice comeback, waterman...
my, oh my! I've never heard you use such language! :D ;)
Thanks for keeping it all in perspective. Personally, I have more hope then ever that we will prevail come November. Now, if we could just ensure a paper trail for all those computerized voting machines...
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DemNoir Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Aug-27-04 12:03 PM
Response to Original message
15. Did you think it would be easy?
Cut the whining and do something positive.
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lancdem Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Aug-27-04 12:08 PM
Response to Reply #15
23. Of course I didn't think it would be easy
Edited on Fri Aug-27-04 12:09 PM by lancdem
that's why we need to fight fire with fire. How do you know I'm not doing my part?
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kstewart33 Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Aug-27-04 12:04 PM
Response to Original message
16. Keep our chin up
I am as angry as you are, but don't lose hope. Kerry's rep is that he is a great closer. Let's hope he owns up to his rep, and that he begins closing around September 5.
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nothingshocksmeanymore Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Aug-27-04 12:05 PM
Response to Original message
17. No incumbent president has gone on to win with such low approval
ratings in my memory...look at the approval ratings, not the polls.
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annxburns Donating Member (948 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Aug-27-04 12:05 PM
Response to Original message
18. I'm not ...
I expected the swift smear to be much more effective and those polls were taken at the height of the smear campaign.

Bush will be up the next week or so, but then he will steadily fall. It will not be clear that Kerry will win until a week or so before the election. The hard core undecided will always break late.

I am also happy that Kitty Kelly's book about the Bush family is coming out in three weeks. That is timed perfectly. Democrats don't sink to the smear level of the Murdoch, Drudge echo chamber so this book is going be sweet justice.
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truthspeaker Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Aug-27-04 12:06 PM
Response to Original message
19. And you believe those polls?
remember who owns the media who publishes the polls.
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LisaM Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Aug-27-04 12:07 PM
Response to Original message
22. Where do you get your electoral college numbers?
Yesterday on "Countdown" they had Kerry unchanged for the last several weeks at 286.
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LisaL Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Aug-27-04 12:08 PM
Response to Reply #22
26. Polls?
What were they predicting in a last election?
I think when it is that close, polls don't mean all that much.
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still_one Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Aug-27-04 12:08 PM
Response to Original message
24. don't believe the polls
in fact most polls show a 50/50 split

They are not counting young people, old people, minorities, single woman.

Sorry, but the polls were wrong in 2000, where they said bush would win Gore by 7 plus% and they will be wrong this time

People who work overtime will see the results in their checks

People who can't find a job know

women for choice know

people who could benefit from stem cell research know

we are going to win, and it will be by a larger margin than predicted
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rocktivity Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Aug-27-04 12:08 PM
Response to Original message
25. He got a Smear-Boat bounce
Edited on Fri Aug-27-04 12:13 PM by rocknation
And they had a two-week head start. Now that it has been revealed to be a setup and a lie, more people will be immune to the Bush camp's subsequent tactics. Also, keep in mind that Kerry is now in a position raise questions about BUSH's military record. Convention or not, the bounce will dissipate.

:headbang:
rocknation
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AFSCME girl Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Aug-27-04 12:09 PM
Response to Original message
27. Hang in there, lancdem
we have some hard work to do, but just remember: WE HAVE TO DO THIS - THIS COUNTRY OF OURS CANNOT TAKE ANOTHER FOUR YEARS OF THIS "ADMINISTRATION"! :hug: JUST KEEP PLUGGIN' AWAY!

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lancdem Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Aug-27-04 12:10 PM
Response to Reply #27
29. Thanks!
:hi:
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AFSCME girl Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Aug-27-04 12:15 PM
Response to Reply #29
37. You're welcome!
:hi:
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Eurobabe Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Aug-27-04 12:09 PM
Response to Original message
28. Bu$h will get a bounce with all the RNC crap
don't get discouraged. There are hundreds of new voters waiting to BOUNCE this dickhead.
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michigandem2 Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Aug-27-04 12:11 PM
Response to Original message
30. If this was OCTOBER 27th
I would be feeling like that but this is AUGUST>..so much can happen with so many things...its not over...and it isn't going to be easy...but we have TONS of stuff to go on and the debates..I mean if the debates were over and I had asessed the situation...it STILL is not over till november 3rd..and November 3rd John Forbes Kerry will be our President..don't give in to these polls..they (media) NEED a close race..if nobody cares..or if there is a HUGE winner..nobody will watch their pansy asses rant and rave...

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59millionmorons Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Aug-27-04 12:12 PM
Response to Original message
31. eeew that is a republican site
You should of warned us. Now I feel dirty. Dont worry Zogby has Kerry winning big. Yes that is the same Zogby that nailed the 2000 race. When we lose Zogby then I will worry.
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lancdem Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Aug-27-04 12:22 PM
Response to Reply #31
41. A Republican site? I never got that impression
Where do you see that? I thought there was no political bent one way or the other. :shrug:
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59millionmorons Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Aug-27-04 12:32 PM
Response to Reply #41
50. Well
Maybe all the ads running on the left hand side promoting Alan Keyes and henry Hyde might of caught your eyes. it sure did mine.
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lancdem Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Aug-27-04 12:38 PM
Response to Reply #50
56. Please look again
Those are ads for someone running AGAINST Hyde.
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deutsey Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Aug-27-04 12:40 PM
Response to Reply #56
57. Not that I'm defending the site
but the guy who puts it together claims to be a Democrat.

http://www.dcpoliticalreport.com/DCResume.htm

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molly Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Aug-27-04 12:12 PM
Response to Original message
32. Go here......these are the real polls
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Killarney Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Aug-27-04 12:14 PM
Response to Original message
34. Please read this
The Kerry camp sent this out earlier this week. It made me feel a lot better, hopefully it will help you, too.

------
The average winning incumbent has had a job approval rating of 60%. Indeed, every incumbent who has won reelection has had his job approval in the mid-50's or higher at this point. In recent polling, Bush's average approval rating has been 48%. President Bush must emerge from his convention having dramatically altered public perception of his performance in office.

In recent years, when incumbents have gone on to victory, 52% of voters, on average, said the country was on the right track. Now, just 37% think things are moving in the right direction. Thus, President Bush must convince the electorate that the nation is in much better shape than voters now believe to be the case.

Every incumbent who has gone on to be reelected has had a double-digit lead at this point.

Following their conventions, the average elected incumbent has held a 16-point lead, while winning incumbents have led by an average of 27 points. Bush will need a very substantial bounce to reach the mark set by his successful predecessors.
Incumbents have enjoyed an average bounce in the vote margin of 8 points.
On average, incumbents' share of the two-party vote has declined by 4 points between their convention and Election Day.

President Bush has the opportunity to achieve an average, or even greater, bounce from his convention. Typically, elected incumbents go into their conventions with a 9-point lead, while incumbents who have gone on to win enter their conventions with a 21-point lead. Most current polls show the race quite close. This gives the president substantial room to bounce. By contrast, Senator Kerry entered his convention in a far stronger position than the average challenger. The average challenger goes into his convention 16 points behind, while Senator Kerry entered his convention with a 1-2 point lead. This gave Senator Kerry much less room to bounce.

However, as the data above makes clear, average is not enough for President Bush. Incumbents who went on to win reelection had an average lead of 27 points after their convention. Indeed, the average elected incumbent -- winners and losers -- had a lead of 16 points after their conventions. An average bounce would still leave Bush well below the historical mark set by other incumbents, particularly those who went on to victory.

Perhaps most important, the average elected incumbent experienced a 4-point drop in his share of the two-party vote from the post-convention polling to Election Day. Thus, to beat the odds, President Bush will need to be garnering 55% of the two-party vote after his convention. Anything less than that and the president will remain in grave political danger.
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lancdem Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Aug-27-04 12:35 PM
Response to Reply #34
51. I got that in my email, too
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59millionmorons Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Aug-27-04 12:36 PM
Response to Reply #34
53. I love this line
Every incumbent who has gone on to be reelected has had a double-digit lead at this point.

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aintitfunny Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Aug-27-04 12:15 PM
Response to Original message
36. Everyone said it would not be easy
Everyone said how down and dirty it was going to be. No surprises. The convention will provide a small bounce. Also no surprise. We will overcome, but we will not win without a fight. None of us can afford to become disenchanted with it all and give up the battle. Lets get past the debacle coming up in New York, look forward to the debates and keep on talking to family, friends and strangers about how important it is. Do whatever it takes within the bounds of civility, reason and the rue of law to bring new participants to the process. I don't think the polls are considering all the new voters that will be coming on board this election. I have been registering voters and the response is great. I know others have gone to border states (swing states) and have registered hundreds. This gives me hope.

So there is no time for a pity party. We need to work hard and continually so WE get what WE deserve.



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Parche Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Aug-27-04 12:16 PM
Response to Original message
38. Kerry
I have supported Kerry for 2years now before he was even
noticed

I remember back in September-December everyone was "Hot" on
Howard Dean, and up until the first few months he was way ahead
Then something happened, and Kerry won almost every primary
and now he is the one

You have to have faith and hope
you have to be like Kerry and never give up
The only way Bush is going to win is if he cheats with the electronic voting machines
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elperromagico Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Aug-27-04 08:36 PM
Response to Reply #38
145. So good to hear from a longtime Kerry supporter.
Thank you, my friend. :hug:

John Kerry won't give up on you; don't give up on him. :)
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ibegurpard Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Aug-27-04 12:18 PM
Response to Original message
40. Still way too early to worry about it.
There's two entire months left before the election, an eternity in politics. And as for the whole swift boat thing, no poll is going to be able to measure the effects of the discrediting of so many of these guys or the the recent actions the Kerry campaign has taken to combat it because all of this stuff is barely starting to sink in.
I think they made a mistake by waiting as long as they did to address it forcefully but that's a moot point since it's already done. What counts is how they deal with it now and with further things to come down the pike. So far, I'm satisfied with what I see.
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lancdem Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Aug-27-04 12:27 PM
Response to Reply #40
45. Good point
I do like the response over the past few days, too.
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Nicholas_J Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Aug-27-04 12:24 PM
Response to Original message
42. Actually
Most pollster still look at this situation as being a really bad one for Bush because as the incumbent, he sould be a lot fuirtther ahead, and has a lot of problems realted to how the last 4 years have gone, while Kerry has much less to justify. All Kerry needs to be is average in order to attract anyone who feels Bush has not met the promise that he made when comng into office.
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Monte Carlo Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Aug-27-04 12:24 PM
Response to Original message
43. If Kerry's campaign continues to be passive into September, I'd agree.
Edited on Fri Aug-27-04 12:26 PM by Monte Carlo
Past the RNC, that is.

I have a really strong feeling that Kerry is going to come on strong in the next couple of months. As a current White House Chief-of-Staff said once, you don't put out new product in August. Kerry has usually done very well in the closing weeks of his campaigns.

I've noticed the new polls, but I'm not terribly concerned about them. Frankly, the could all be 90-10 in favor of Bush as long as Kerry is one vote ahead on Election Day. Polls always have a degree of 'noise' in them, and fluctuate around the true support numbers. Kerry isn't pulling ahead, and then again, neither is Bush.

I believe that the Swift Boat Veterans for Truth will be a liability in the future. They've been outed as liars and partisan hucksters with a direct connection to the Bush campaign. Honorable people know you don't call one soldier/sailor/marine's medals into question without calling them ALL into question. They've had an effect, no doubt, but a lot can happen in two months.

EDIT: I use good grammar use good grammar.
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lancdem Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Aug-27-04 12:29 PM
Response to Reply #43
46. And he didn't run any ads this month
to conserve his money for the stretch run, which makes sense.
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goodhue Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Aug-27-04 12:25 PM
Response to Original message
44. not me
Kerry is sitting pretty.
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PlanetBev Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Aug-27-04 12:36 PM
Response to Reply #44
54. Thank you to all who encouraged Lancdem
There is no need to shoot down or flame someone who is a little discouraged. A lot of us are on an emotional rollercoaster because because of the cowardly media not doing it's job and the stupidity of Americans who get sucked into these Republican hatchet jobs. I feel hopeful that Kerry can overcome this shit and win. Please, people, let's take care of each other during the next two months.
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liontamer Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Aug-27-04 12:31 PM
Response to Original message
48. i was a bit dissapointed with the response
to kerry's daily show appearance. hopefully there will be more edwards appearances to boost our support in repub and swing states
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jonnyblitz Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Aug-27-04 12:42 PM
Response to Original message
58. legitimate concerns.n/t
Edited on Fri Aug-27-04 12:43 PM by jonnyblitz
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AP Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Aug-27-04 12:45 PM
Response to Original message
59. Ohmygod! Here comes a wave!!! We're doomed!
Nobody deserves Bush. Not even the people who believe his lies and vote for him.

Which is why when you see a wave coming, you get to work.

And crying about the wave coming isn't work.
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quaoar Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Aug-27-04 12:48 PM
Response to Original message
60. The horse-race polls are fun
But are essentially meaningless. Remember that Gallup had Bush winning easily just a week before the 2000 election -- and Gore won the popular vote.

The poll question that is most meaningful and predictive when an incumbent is running is the one that asks whether you believe the country is headed in the right direction or not. If Bush can't crack 50 percent in that poll, he's dead meat.



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LibertyorDeath Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Aug-27-04 12:51 PM
Response to Original message
64. lancdem go talk to TruthIsAll he will
pick this D.C.'s Political Report poll to bits Show how & Exactly Why it's SHIT.

Forget individual polls they are manipulated 24\7

Hang in there These MF's are goin Down!
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DemMother Donating Member (422 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Aug-27-04 01:00 PM
Response to Original message
68. It might help to go volunteer, if you haven't already
I live in California and am thinking about signing up for the Kerry travelers.

Here's the link. I have to figure out work issues and child care...and money, but I think it might be fun and, despite that goofy Survey USA poll, I believe California is firmly in Kerry's camp and that any effort here might not make as much difference as doing something in another state. I traveled to three states for McGovern when I was a teenager--haven't done it since. Maybe it's time.

Here's the link:

http://volunteer.johnkerry.com/traveler/
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Meshuga Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Aug-27-04 01:11 PM
Response to Original message
71. Cheer up! It's only August...
Smear vets can't keep this going until November. They showed up too early in the game because of Bush's approval ratings which still suck.

Kerry is downplaying his performance in the future debates to make more of an impact when he destroy's Bush. If you watch TV all day listening to their "wishful thinking" you are going to go crazy! Don't listen to that crap! Kerry will be fine. Once the swift boat liers are played out you will see Kerry climb pretty fast.

All we need to do is survive through the RNC and a couple of more weeks of some boring overplayed SBVT coverage.

I'm sure Kerry has a card to play in case he gets in trouble and if he needs to push the red button it will be within three weeks of the election. But Kerry might not need to use it.
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LloydLib Donating Member (22 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Aug-27-04 01:20 PM
Response to Original message
73. What I do not understand and I am new on here
Clinton won big against bush 1. He played on the economy stupids. I think it is crazy to even bring up Viet Nam and being a jr officer for 4 months is not going to get you anything.

I just do not understand why they pick that to highlight and not go after the economy. It worked for Clinton.

Viet Nam brings up nothing but problems and vets used the same thing against gore that they both did not stick with there men and cut and ran. This hurts.

If we had not raise this issue, nothing would have been said and the fight would be over the economy. I think we all agree on who would win that debate.

Maybe someone can explain it to me.
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deutsey Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Aug-27-04 01:21 PM
Response to Reply #73
74. Bush, Rove and Shifty Boat Vets made this an issue
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LloydLib Donating Member (22 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Aug-27-04 01:26 PM
Response to Reply #74
77. I still do not understand why we would bring up viet nam
I just do not understand it. It is not what we are about. You did not see Clinton say anything and he focus like a laser beam on the economy.

People do not care about Nam anymore unless you stir it up. Why stir up something you have many enemies in.

I think someone in power behind Kerry should say, it is the economy stupid. I worked for Clinton. Another Admiral today came out who was on the boat with him. This will keep going on. Bury it and take on the economy.
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deutsey Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Aug-27-04 01:59 PM
Response to Reply #77
98. It is a distracting issue from the real life crap going on now
Edited on Fri Aug-27-04 02:03 PM by deutsey
Iraq, unemployment, growing poverty, etc. I agree with you 100%.

These issues are just sooooo boring compared to arguing about whether Kerry bled when he was injured in Viet Nam a few decades ago.

I'd rather Kerry take the lead on talking about real issues (and, to be fair, I think his campaign is trying...just take a look at all the press releases Skinner is posting from the Kerry campaign), but the corporate media want "juicy" stories about he said this/they said that. It's hard to get substantial stuff covered on corporate news, and I think the situation is even worse now than it was when Clinton ran in '92. Of course, it was Clinton who helped deregulate the media so that there would be increased conglomerate control of media, wasn't it? :shrug:
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LloydLib Donating Member (22 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Aug-27-04 02:20 PM
Response to Reply #98
104. It is the economy stupid
I think Clinton said that via James C. and it beat a bush.

If military exp is so important we should have nominated Clark. I laugh when reports talk about how his military experience 4 months as a jr officer in Nam will help him as President.
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deutsey Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Aug-27-04 02:32 PM
Response to Reply #104
106. I think Perot running helped Clinton win, too
Edited on Fri Aug-27-04 02:34 PM by deutsey
But you're right, Clinton's campaign focused on it's the economy, stupid. I think Carville had that hung up somewhere to remind Clinton (who had a tendency of rambling off topic) to stay focused and on message.

Clinton was also embroiled in controversies about Viet Nam, Gennifer Flowers, and other potential scandals. Anyone who worked for or supported Clinton in '92 would surely remember these things and how Clinton's campaign had a "truth squad" that immediately responded to these accusations against him.

In my opinion, Bush's daddy tried to make military service an issue with Clinton and now Bush is trying to make it an issue with Kerry, only for different reasons. Clinton didn't serve in the military (for reasons of conscience over Viet Nam, apparently), while Bush I did serve in WWII. Bush II served in the Champagne Brigade in Texas thanks to the pull of his daddy and didn't bother showing up for duty in Alabama for a year. Kerry, on the other hand, volunteered to go to Viet Nam, was wounded and did some heroic things while serving there. Bush I wanted to smear Clinton for his lack of service and Bush II wants to smear Kerry because of Kerry's service, which highlights what a fraud Bush is when he struts around on aircraft carriers and crows that he's a war president.
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LloydLib Donating Member (22 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Aug-27-04 02:44 PM
Response to Reply #106
108. Here is the problem
Bush daddy did it, gore's daddy did it and you have a cat fight. Stay on the economy. The one thing I hear over and over is that Kerry left his men and they had to stay the whole 12 months. That makes them mad like we get on here with Zell Miller leaving us.

It is natural to be upset with someone who gets out of what others have to do and it is always seems to be the rich get out and poor stay. I think you will see that come soon as they start talking about how they all stayed and he went home.

Dump the nam and focus on the economy and bush is on the defense. What has it gain us, nothing.
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deutsey Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Aug-27-04 02:55 PM
Response to Reply #108
112. Good riddance to Zell, as far as I'm concerned
Edited on Fri Aug-27-04 02:58 PM by deutsey
And, again, it seems that only the Swift Boat Liars (and you) are the ones obsessing about Viet Nam.

Check these press releases out:

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.ph...

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.ph...

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.ph...

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.ph...

Sounds to me like Kerry is raising issues other than Viet Nam and focusing on how Bush is screwing those of us in the working and middle classes. When Kerry's campaign does make an issue of Nam, it's about why Bush is illegally entangled with the Swift Boat Liars:

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.ph...


:shrug:



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LloydLib Donating Member (22 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Aug-27-04 03:13 PM
Response to Reply #112
114. Read this link
I think he should have followed Clinton's advice and focus on the economy and not nam. I know some will get mad at me but I remember some on here saying they did not like all the military stuff at the convention. Clark could do it but not Kerry. It is not a win/win for him.

He has gone down in the polls. He has to keep fighting this and I just saw another pop up.

http://www.suntimes.com/output/elect/cst-nws-lips27.htm...

He could talk to Bush and say let us drop this all. Let us tell the americans we do not need to have all this fighting with people trying to wipe us out.

Let us debate the issues. You tell them what you will do, and I will tell them what I will do. We will both condemn all negative ads.

Folks, their are bad guys out for all of us and we need to remember that.

Kerry could take the high road and this nam stuff would go away.
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deutsey Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Aug-27-04 03:32 PM
Response to Reply #114
120. Thomas Lipscomb wrote the thing on your link
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EST Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Aug-27-04 04:56 PM
Response to Reply #108
131. Big welcome to DU!
You've certainly arrived at the right time! Just for information--John Kerry's war experience WAS and is important. He has shown he's a natural leader and good when the chips are down. Also it's important to illustrate the difference between a thoughtful, intelligent, experienced leader and a coke swilling, draft dodging, incompetent, petulant loser the likes of chimpy. We will win--by truth, integrity, tolerance and determination. Attack!
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LloydLib Donating Member (22 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Aug-27-04 06:49 PM
Response to Reply #131
139. I think like Clinton and this is stupid it is the economy
Kerry has real problems with vets when they find out he ran from nam and the rest of his crew stayed there whole time. He should stay away from nam. Focus on the economy.

Mahalo as we say here for the welcome.

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deutsey Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Aug-27-04 07:25 PM
Response to Reply #139
140. And as I point out in a post above
Kerry is addressing the economy. SBV (and you) are the ones blathering about his Viet Nam experience.

Odd that his crewmates (and others from that place and era, including the Republican Special Forces guy) aren't complaining about Kerry's "running away from nam" like you are.

And I should say, I'm no huge Kerry (or Clinton) fan. But Kerry (and Clinton) are a helluva lot better than Bush.
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EST Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Aug-27-04 08:01 PM
Response to Reply #139
143. Are you proposing
that Kerry should not respond agressively to attacks on his record?
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Moonbeam_Starlight Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Aug-28-04 01:00 PM
Response to Reply #77
155. Clinton didn't say anything about it
because HE DIDN'T GO.

Kerry is the first Dem nominee in fifty years who is a bona-fide war hero.

It's a big part of his resume and it points to what kind of person and leader he is.....of COURSE he is going to highlight it.

Sheesh.
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the_outsider Donating Member (258 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Aug-27-04 03:01 PM
Response to Reply #73
113. Kerry campaign thought they couldn't disregard security as an issue
Post 9/11, Bush's main strategy has been to focus on the "terror" threats to USA. Mass media helps him in that. It's all manufactured, but it's a very efficient machine. Consumers of this news machine are forced to perceive democrats as soft on defense and security issues. Also there is this old perception of not changing leaders "in the middle of a war". So when Kerry campaign started, they figured they had to address this issue and could not afford to ignore it.

In a roughly 40/40/20 (republican base/democrat base/swing) split among likely voters, 20 is the key number. The strategy was to use Kerry's Vietnam service and military credentials (along with other macho images and posturings) to assert the undecideds that Kerry wouldn't be too "soft" on security. With that concern addressed, they would look at other issues where Kerry has big advantages. It remains to be seen if it works out as planned.

There were a couple of viable alternative strategies.

An alternative strategy could have been to ignore 9/11 completely as an important election issue and focus on increasing the voter turnout. Convincing the 50% who do not feel represented enough to care about voting is a hard task. The only way to accomplish it IMO is to focus on skewed wealth distribution, universal health care, lack of opportunities for the majority, racial and other discrimination - campaigning for fundamental social and economic changes with the goal of a more fair and just society. I am not sure given the corporate influence over political leaders we have today, the democratic party wants to go there. Even if they want, it's debatable if it's a good election strategy. Most of it is not achievable in a short time frame without a grass root movement and a lot of incremental improvements in education, mass media etc. which can only be done over a long period of time with a majority in congress and senate.

Another strategy could have been to address 9/11 but attacking Bush administration's handling/bungling more directly. It could have involved demanding real investigation about Bush administration's incompetence/involvement in 9/11, rejecting the ideals behind Iraq and Afghanistan war in strong words, treating terrorist control as a law-enforcement issue and not as a military issue, pointing out and resisting Israel's and oil interest's role in US foreign policies and then also attacking Bush on economy - jobs, outsourcing, deficit, increasing wealth disparity. Such a two-pronged attack would have been nice, but I do not think democratic party think tank is independent and willing enough to proclaim drastic fundamental changes in foreign policy. It can even be argued that without first solving energy problems, that would be a bit foolhardy. Yes, it would be great for poor Arabs, but they are not voting.
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Bongo Prophet Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Aug-27-04 05:35 PM
Response to Reply #73
134. 2 tours, roughly a year and 4 months
Did his duty and THEN volunteered for a 2nd tour, one of the most dangeous in the navy....
O'Neill would have shown up regardless.
No doubt about that. Nixon's revenge, lurking in wait for a long time.
Waaay before convention.
Perry and other Rove minions had a plan for whoever the dems picked.
The emphasis at convention was a partial innoculation.
He has been emphasizing economy on his tour.
Unfortunately one must watch c-span, not other tv news to get to see some of that.
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Moonbeam_Starlight Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Aug-28-04 12:59 PM
Response to Reply #73
153. Um
Kerry had EVERY RIGHT to highlight his service to his country. Are you actually suggesting he shouldn't have?

Ridiculous. You are blaming the wrong person here. Like saying "she deserved to be raped because of that short skirt"--SAME THINKING.

Please. ANY veteran is free to talk about their service, they fucking earned that right.
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LSK Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Aug-27-04 01:23 PM
Response to Original message
75. F911 on DVD in October
I think more people go to Blockbuster than movies nowadays....
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spanone Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Aug-27-04 01:24 PM
Response to Original message
76. At this point we've GOTTA BELIEVE. NO DEPRESSION.
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Name removed Donating Member (0 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Aug-27-04 01:39 PM
Response to Original message
82. Deleted message
Message removed by moderator. Click here to review the message board rules.
 
markses Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Aug-27-04 01:47 PM
Response to Reply #82
91. Oh, you mustn't! Oh, you mustn't!
The 1980's psycho-babble crowd will crucify you for not letting a counter-productive moaning session get its due time! We must all share our feelings and get in touch our inner child. :eyes:
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TWiley Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Aug-27-04 03:44 PM
Response to Reply #91
123. You have been moaning for this entire thread.
Would you please consider ..... Therapy?
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markses Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Aug-27-04 03:55 PM
Response to Reply #123
124. No thanks
And I haven't been moaning. I've been scoffing.
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TWiley Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Aug-28-04 04:55 AM
Response to Reply #124
147. So, obviously your plan
is to help John Kerry win this November by attacking his supporters.

hmmmmmm <scratches head while eyes glaze over> I never would have thought of that.
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markses Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Aug-28-04 08:51 AM
Response to Reply #147
150. You're confusing the long-range work with the immediate work
The immediate need is to turn a debilitating sadness into anger. Looks like that has worked. That's a first step to get out of the cycle of self-pity, and get John Kerry elected. Scratch away. You know I'm right.
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TWiley Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Aug-28-04 12:57 PM
Response to Reply #150
152. Your response sounds like "Psycho-Babble" to me
And, I do not "know" that you are right. In fact, I believe that you are merely trying to find what you feel is some kind of socially acceptable outlet for your anger; like the man who romanticizes a break-in at his house to justify murdering the intruder.

Hostility between the members of a team united to achieve a goal is not productive; it is a distraction.

I am not "scratching away" at you; I am merely trying to understand if you have a point worth considering.

Right now, I tend to believe that you are merely a troll with no good purpose. Controversy is what the opponent should swim in. Not us.


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SammyWinstonJack Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Aug-27-04 04:20 PM
Response to Reply #91
128. HA!
"I'd like to find your inner child and kick it's little ass.......Get Over It." Courtesy of The Eagles Hell Freezes Over
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lancdem Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Aug-27-04 02:00 PM
Response to Reply #82
99. His approval rating isn't good for an incumbent
but show me a recent poll where it's in the low 40s. High 40s, and in a few cases 50 percent, is more like it.
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progressivebydesign Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Aug-27-04 02:51 PM
Response to Reply #82
110. Is William Pitt now God or something?
The original message was heartfelt. I'm bored with people using the illustrious Pitt as their excuse to attack people. He doesn't speak for DU, he doesn't speak for the Democrats, and he doesn't speak for all of us. He's a learned guy, and loves to write... but that doesn't make him the last word on what Democrats or DUers should think. Invoking him constantly, as some people do around here, to whack other posters makes him a party to your rudeness. I'm sure William Pitt did not intend his words to be used that way.
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VOX Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Aug-27-04 01:46 PM
Response to Original message
90. There are more than two full months before the election, lancdem...
No shame in having doubts -- we all do, from time to time. Fact: There is still plenty of time for things to go Kerry's way.

The debates are coming. And try as they might, the GOP cannot control world events.

We never expected to blow the opposition out of the water (no reference to Swift Boat Vets intended) -- we knew it was going to be close.

Time to dig in and fight. The battle's just begun.

Hang in there -- :toast:
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West Coast Democrat Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Aug-27-04 01:53 PM
Response to Original message
96. I guess you were expecting angry responses...
I say, Buck up!
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lancdem Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Aug-27-04 02:02 PM
Response to Reply #96
102. I expected a wide range, actually
:)
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West Coast Democrat Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Aug-27-04 03:15 PM
Response to Reply #102
115. Well I certainly hope you didn't expect a whine-fest...
I hope you posted that in an attempt to make others disagree with you.
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oasis Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Aug-27-04 02:00 PM
Response to Original message
100. "My Pet Goat" Get those posters/signs ready for the Repug convention.
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NV1962 Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Aug-27-04 02:01 PM
Response to Original message
101. OMFG - WE'RE GONNA DIE! DIE!! DIE!!!
Will Pitt, who read you the other day and who reads you now...

:eyes:

"Suck it up, soldier - this is the war we've been waiting for!"

:wtf:
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MODemocrat Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Aug-27-04 02:49 PM
Response to Original message
109. Please don't be disheartened, Kerry's going to be on top
If we had a free press, none of this would be happening; but since we don't have an honest press, I just go to sites like Democrats.com, and others. They are full of good and reliable news.
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progressivebydesign Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Aug-27-04 02:55 PM
Response to Original message
111. Hang in there.. yesterday was just a particularly bad day for us..
.. it seems like this week, and yesterday in particular, have been tough ones on Kerry. It's early yet. The polls are not reflecting real life.. I know a ton of voters who have no home phone, only a cell phone.. or share a house with one phone. There is no way they can predict by using 700 likely voters.

WE just gotta keep working. Ignore the people on DU that are hoping to out the next disrupter... they love to pick on people.. hoping for the big tombstone score on someone.

Your post was heartfelt. Your concern is heartfelt. It just HAS to motivate us to work harder and smarter. If you are not volunteering for Kerry or a local candidate now, I suggest you call them right now. It really, really helps with the worries.
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indyjones1938 Donating Member (366 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Aug-27-04 04:29 PM
Response to Original message
129. reply
I'm probably going to get flamed, but I'm going to say what I want to say anyway.

I think you're all being way too harsh on lancdem, and you're also being somewhat hypocritical.

Whenever Kerry is up in the electoral vote polls, everyone is understandably happy and flaunts those polls until we know them all by heart. But whenever Kerry falls in those same electoral vote polls, we dismiss them as "outliers" or "biased," and we criticize anyone who dares suggest that Kerry is "falling behind" or that the negative attacks are working.

I understand that polls fluctuate wildly. I know that there are outliers, and I know that some polls are biased. I know that the direction can and does change from week to week. But I also understand that, in a two-way race, only one candidate can be gaining ground at once. The other has to be losing ground.

Two weeks ago, John Kerry's position in the state-by-state electoral vote polls was very, very strong. His position is still strong, but is nowhere near as strong as it was several weeks ago. Kerry used to have a lead in Ohio, for instance, almost outside the margin of error. Now it is Bush who has the lead, but nearly twice the margin of error. West Virginia, just a few weeks ago, seemed like it was in the bag for Kerry. Posters on DU were wild about the prospects of writing off Florida and winning by taking Ohio and West Virginia. Not any more. Kerry has been forced to spend money and time in what should be very strong Democratic states, e.g., Minnesota and Wisconsin.

There has also been bad news for Bush, however. Nevada, New Hampshire, Arkansas, Colorado and Tennessee have all been introduced as hot democratic prospects. Battleground states New Mexico and Oregon have solidified behind Kerry. Kerry's lead has not dropped nearly as much as Bush would've liked, in a month when (a) Kerry has not aired any advertising, (b) Bush has nearly doubled his advertising and (c) a renegade 527 has lauched devastating attacks upon Kerry's integrity and war record. If the election were held today, John Kerry would likely win. But it would be by a very slim margin, most likely (according to electoral-vote.com) 270 to 268.

One thing that is very helpful in political campaigns in the ability to look at the "big picture." Looking at the "big picture" in the last month, we have seen Kerry's 330+ tally of electoral votes gradually dwindle down to 270. He now holds the slimmest of leads in the electoral count. Even Michael Moore has acknowledged that the attacks have hurt Kerry (http://releases.usnewswire.com/GetRelease.asp?id=35338 ). The pro-Kerry webmaster of www.electoral-vote.com has also said as much:

"It looks like the swift boat ad is working. Kerry is now dropping in the state polls as well as in the national polls. Bush claims no involvement while his top lawyer, Benjamin Ginsberg, admitted he advised the swift boat vets and resigned. Dirty tricks that leave no fingerprints are nothing new to Karl Rove, but what is surprising is how unprepared Kerry appears to have been."

www.electoral-vote.com

In the same period of time, Bush has very slowly managed to salvage himself from what at one point seemed to be an inevitable Kerry landslide. Right now, the election is anybody's game.

But it hurts me to see lancdem attacked and flamed just for expressing the fact that she feels discouraged. Everyone feels discouraged. Even John Kerry and John Edwards. Think how it must hurt Kerry in his heart to see his military service attacked so unfairly, and the honor of himself and his friends who fought and died in Vietnam tarnished by a bunch of Republican boors. So I think what we have to do in this campaign is to not underestimate our enemy. Rove is one of the most powerful political strategists of all time. For him, the ends justify the means. He is not afraid to destroy anyone who stands in his way, even Republicans. But Kerry and Edwards aren't going to let the Rovian smear machine get them down. And neither should we.




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fujiyama Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Aug-27-04 05:23 PM
Response to Original message
133. I'll admit
I've been disappointed with the state polls I've seen (well the LA Times polls at least). Kerry has definetely lost some ground since the convention. Mainly, these ads and the hype by the whoring media have been a distraction.

Look on the bright side though -- the Gallup poll had some bright spots - some 55% of the respondents believed Bush was behind the Smear boat Lies...and the race is pretty much a statistical dead heat.

Kerry still has some work to do.
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Joe Chi Minh Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Aug-27-04 06:16 PM
Response to Original message
138. Playing into their hands
Edited on Fri Aug-27-04 06:19 PM by KCabotDullesMarxIII
How can you believe them, Lancdem, when there is so much anecdotal, but nevertheless very hard circumstantial evidence of all kinds that the country's on fire for a Kerry/Edwards victory (including, I might add, former life-long Republicans, serving military personnel, you name it).

The neocons will be relying on the gullibility of people such as yourself, to have any chance of getting away with vote-rigging and intimidation.
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Erika Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Aug-27-04 07:40 PM
Response to Reply #138
142. Exactly -Voters want a change and Kerry is it!
People are getting darn sick of refighting the Nam war. They are NOT blaming Kerry for the refight. My God, he was 23 years old.

Bush was a drunk until he was 40 and has accomplished little except trying to turn our country into a third world country.

Get off of your pity trip and work against the election of Bush.
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StevieM Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Aug-27-04 08:15 PM
Response to Original message
144. Yeah, I'm scared too
Bush and his supporters are terrible human beings. They will do anything to win. Sometimes that can be very helpful. I am just really scared that the swift boat lies have worked. My Democratic-leaning friend believes some of them. My heart is breaking right now.

But I am not going to give up. I will keep working to get Kerry elected. I support him completely and I want him to be the next president. Four more years of Bush* is unacceptable. So hopefully we can turn this around and get Kerry back on top.

I hope the GOP convention doesn't go too well, but it will likely get him a bounce. And the biased, conservative news media will actually acknowledge that bounce, unlike Kerry's.

Steve
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elperromagico Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Aug-27-04 08:49 PM
Response to Original message
146. Remember that the Kerry campaign has not been running many ads.
Edited on Fri Aug-27-04 08:52 PM by elperromagico
The MoveOn and DNC ads have only appeared in a few places, AFAIK. They (the Kerry campaign) have pulled their ads in the hopes of being on a level footing with Bush come September. And that's just about the right time to be on a level footing.

Yes, Kerry has taken a slight dive in the EC. But he's still in a dead heat with Bush. The SmearVet ads have not been a "Willie Horton" moment for him; he has dealt with them effectively enough to A. Cause people to doubt their claims and B. Tie them to the Bush campaign.

And look at some of the numbers from the site you mention, and from http://www.electoral-vote.com :

Arizona:
Bush - 45
Kerry - 42 (MOE 6.5%)

Arkansas:
Bush - 48
Kerry - 47

Colorado:
Bush - 47
Kerry - 47

Florida:
Bush - 49
Kerry - 47

Missouri:
Bush - 46
Kerry - 44

Nevada:
Bush - 46
Kerry - 47.7

New Hampshire:
Bush - 43.3
Kerry - 50.5

Ohio:
Bush - 49
Kerry - 45

Tennessee:
Bush - 47.7
Kerry - 49.6

Virginia:
Bush - 49
Kerry - 45

Any of those states could potentially go for Kerry; how many of them were being called "Solid Bush" or "Likely Bush" a year ago?
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GOPAgainstGW Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Aug-28-04 01:00 PM
Response to Original message
154. Every Thing is Perfect!! - Get Laid Tonight, You'll Feel Much Better!
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okieinpain Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Aug-28-04 01:31 PM
Response to Original message
156. just wanted to say great post. don't worry about those
who complain about you sharing your honest feelings. It's appreciated by me and I don't consider it whinning.
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karabekian Donating Member (287 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Aug-29-04 09:55 PM
Response to Original message
157. buck up
a lot can happen up until nov. we are in no way out of this race. I also find it disgusting people jump on anyone who doesn't tow the percieved line on this discussion board. just because someone is saying things you don't like or disagree with is no reason to curse at them or hate them. i think voicing an unpopular opinion that is based on polls or other events is very valid. There should be discussion of how to meet this head on instead of hold our ears and yelling at anyone who says something you don't like. its sad really. I thought we were the ones who are open to opinions and different people.
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