I'm very happy with the polling data...

Flabbergasted

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Mon Aug-25-08 02:54 AM
Original message

I'm very happy with the polling data...

Edited on Mon Aug-25-08 03:16 AM by Flabbergasted

The McCain Campaign has had to work very hard to get their polling numbers up to what it was a few weeks ago.

The 45% who support Obama are not going to stray from him. The converse is true with McCain. The state by state polling data is giving Obama huge advantages which, obviously, is where it counts. Not only is he winning the electoral college but only Washington, Oregon Idaho Utah, Wyomong, Colorado, North Dakota, Nebraska, Kansas, Minnesota, Louisiana, Illinois, South Carolina, and Massachusettes are trending upward for McCain. That's 14 for McCain and 25-30 trending up for Obama.

To win McCain is going to have to come in big with indies/undecided and I just don't think it's going to happen this year.

My bet is indies break for obama by a 20 point margin and Obama gains from cell phone users which are under-represented in polls.

http://www.pollster.com/

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snowbear

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Mon Aug-25-08 02:58 AM
Response to Original message

1. Yep.

.
.
Our numbers will sneak up on us just when we need em to...

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tblue

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Mon Aug-25-08 02:59 AM
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2. And being behind a bit will scare O-supporters into redoubling their efforts/donations.

Edited on Mon Aug-25-08 02:59 AM by tblue

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grannie4peace

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Mon Aug-25-08 04:13 AM
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3. we still have to work our butts off to make sure we win

it was real sweet to see all the college kids in denver.. i felt good after that

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lamp_shade

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Mon Aug-25-08 04:26 AM
Response to Original message

4. Right. National polls become more and more meaningless as we

approach election day. State-by-state polls are the ones to watch. Chuck Todd (MSNBC's polling guru) said this at least twice yesterday.

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Awsi Dooger

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Mon Aug-25-08 05:05 AM
Response to Reply #4

5. Chuck Todd is dead wrong

National polls reveal where the state margins will fall. There is a direct and obvious relationship. And averaging national polls is very accurate.

We went through this on DU in 2004, many posters who wanted to believe fanciful state margins that made no sense in relationship to Bush' small national poll lead.

Let Chuck Todd make the betting lines, if he honestly believes that. It's funny that everyone I know who actually bets on this stuff talks about national polls and national trends almost exclusively, and the ones who wouldn't risk a penny are in love with state polls.

This isn't the primary. You've got to adjust. In the primaries the state polls are more relevant. This year that was more true than past years.

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