Zogby (McCain leading): "Obama loses ground among Dems, women, Catholics & even younger voters" LINK

[highplainsdem]

Not sure how to copy that table so it looks like a table, but you can see the numbers in this, and check the link.


Editing to add that at this point, the Zogby article contains an error in the first table, the one showing Obama led McCain by 47% to 40% in July. Their table has that turned around, though they have it right in the text. They apparently just put the page up and should have that corrected later.


http://www.zogby.com/news/ReadNews.dbm?ID=1541

Reuters/Zogby Poll: McCain Makes a Move, Takes 5-Point Lead Over Obama

Obama loses ground among Dems, women, Catholics & even younger voters


UTICA, New York – As Russian tanks rolled into the Republic of Georgia and the presidential candidates met over the weekend in the first joint issues forum of the fall campaign, the latest polling includes drama almost as compelling - Republican John McCain has taken a five-point lead over Democrat Barack Obama in the race for President, the latest Reuters/Zogby telephone survey shows.

McCain leads Obama by a 46% to 41% margin.

And McCain not only enjoys a five-point edge in a two-way race against Obama, but also in a four-way contest including liberal independent candidate Ralph Nader and Libertarian Bob Barr, the poll reveals. In the four-way contest, McCain wins 44% support, Obama 39%, Barr 3% and Nader 2%.

This latest Reuters/Zogby poll is a dramatic reversal from the identical survey taken last month – in the July 9-13 Reuters/Zogby survey, Obama led McCain, 47% to 40%. In the four-way race last month, Obama held a 10-point lead over McCain.

The Reuters/Zogby Horserace
August
July

McCain
46%
47%

Obama
41%
40%

Not sure/Other
13%
13%


This latest live operator telephone survey was conducted Aug. 14-16, 2008 from Zogby’s call center in Upstate New York. It included 1,089 likely voters nationwide, and carries a margin of error of +/- 3.0 percentage points.

The poll shows Obama losing voters to McCain in groups where Obama had bigger leads a month ago, such as Democrats, women and younger voters. Obama also lost ground among Catholics and Southerners.

This table shows Obama’s loss of support between the July and August Reuters/Zogby polls among some significant sub-groups (the margin of error is greater for sub-groups than the sample as a whole).



Obama Support
July
August
Difference

Democrats
83%
74%
-9

Women
50%
42%
-8

Catholics
47%
36%
-11

Ages <35
59%
47%
-12

College Grads
51%
40%
-11

Live in Cities
54%
43%
-11

Income <$50,000
53%
46%
-7

Southerners
46%
35%
-11

-snip-

If this is accurate and Obama is losing ground among Democrats and women voters, then it's more important than ever to have Clinton as his running mate.

[Zynx]

1. 43% support among people in cities? Yeah fucking right.

Zogby is total crap.

[Colobo]

2. Obama will win. With or without Hillary.

[Alter Ego]

3. Yeah, a Zogby poll of "likely voters"

that show Obama losing a ton of support among people who are his staunchest supporters with absolutely no reason or explanation at all should be believed and obsessed over and OH GOD WE MUST FORCE CLINTON ONTO THE TICKET BALDSSFDKFSL: FJKLSF:ASFSFSSDJQEJWLFR

[jefferson_dem]

4. Zogby. "Likely voters." In the field last Thurs-Sat, while Obama was on vacation.

Dismiss.

[Captain Hilts]

7. "Likely voters" is FAR better population than "registered" voters...

for survey purposes.

It might just be a blip. Let's see if it continues, though it does follow the LATimes survey a bit.

[jefferson_dem]

13. Hey, if Zogby knows who will turn out and vote 2.5 months before the election, more power to him.

Most "respectable" pollsters don't lean on their likely voter screens until a month out. "Likely voter" samples will naturally benefit McCaint at this point. We'll see...

[Captain Hilts]

20. There's so much you don't know about polling I don't know where to begin.

Let me just say it's just a snapshot. Everybody needs to relax. You too.

"Likely voters" are often defined by descriptions of past behavior that indicate whether or not they will vote this November. Such as whether they voted in the last off-year congressional elections or the last presidential election. It can also include whether or not the survey respondent says they plan to vote in November. Pollsters don't just make up this shit. Really. That's harder work than doing it honestly and consistently.

[jefferson_dem]

23. I appreciate the "education" ...

but I know a thing or two about survey research and also know what typical "likely voter" screens look like. Using whether or not a respondent has voted in past election cycles is more riskly in this election than any other, given how many first time voters Obama is connecting with. You know that, right?

I never accused Zogby of making shit up but someone else just did. http://www.talkleft.com/story/2008/8/20/84046/0787

[Alter Ego]

15. This model depresses the youth vote and inflates the older vote

because based on past election models they're more "likely" to vote.

Should this turn out to not be the case Zogby will look pretty damn foolish.

[Captain Hilts]

17. That's a better hedge because older voters have very high turnout numbers...

and younger folks do not.

It's a snapshot. That's all. But it does follow what the LATimes survey found.

[jefferson_dem]

25. It is a snapshot ... of the race taken last week, when McCain was scaring folks about Russia...

and Obama was on vacation.

Look, I'm not one who dismisses every poll that includes a bad result for my candidate. I just don't happen to put much stake in John Zogby's contributions.

[pnwmom]

45. That is absolutely not true.

Not in the case when one of the candidates is drawing in many new voters.

[high density]

50. How about we just not poll at all

The election is not today, nor is the election a national poll. And the opinions of today do not matter except for giving the media a race to report.

[Liberal_Stalwart71]

5. I'm sure this poll result makes you happy. Now maybe you can push for Hillary again

:eyes:

[moriah]

6. Jesus Christ.

Not even all of us former Hillary supporters want her on the ticket.

It would be a sweet gesture to have it planned out in advance to offer it to her and have her decline.

But many would wonder if she could actually be trusted to decline. Me included.

(Edit to add: Part of the reason I liked her was she was a power hungry bitch. But I realize the limitations of such a stance. And for the record.... Go Bama! WHOEVER is his running mate!)

[Captain Hilts]

9. Correct. I don't want her on the ticket either.

Yes, she is an arrogant, power-hungry bitch. And Obama is an arrogant, power-hungry bastard. That's why both were such good candidates.

[highplainsdem]

11. No, it doesn't make me "happy." How foolish can you be? I want a Democratic victory in November,

and I've been saying for months that we'll need a unity ticket for that victory. And I've run into arguments again and again from Clinton-hating DUers, completely out of touch with how the Democratic Party overall feels about HRC -- DUers who believe that Obama can pretend he had an overwhelming victory in the primaries, rather than a very narrow victory in a divided party. The polls have been showing all along that the party is not uniting behind him as much as it should, and that's why she needs to be on the ticket.

As he would have to be on the ticket if she were the presidential nominee, to give her a good chance of beating McCain.

I believe she was well aware of that. I'm not sure he's been willing to accept that reality. But maybe it's starting to sink in now.

I posted a poll yesterday showing that she was way ahead of any other possible VP choices when delegates and superdelegates were asked for their preferences. And a clear majority of both delegates and superdelegates believe she'll help the ticket.

They know what these polls are showing. And you can bet they're not "happy" with the poll results, either. They want a Democratic victory, which means a unity ticket.

[Liberal_Stalwart71]

31. You continue to insult the Democratic nominee by presuming that he cannot win on his

own. Hillary actually detracts from the ticket rather than adds to it. There are just as many fervent Obama supporters who will never support an Obama/Hillary ticket.

If you are honest and really want a winning ticket, then Hillary is NOT the answer! She galvanizes the Republican base. He would lose all the Independents and Republicans and new voters like myself who do not liek this woman or her husband!

[musicblind]

36. He didn't insult anyone

real friends tell you how it is, fake friends lie to your face.

if he truly feels that Obama needs Hillary then he should say it, no matter how you feel about Hillary.

The point he was trying to make is that, in his opinion, neither Obama OR Hillary would be wise not to pick the other one.

That is in no way an insult to the nominee than the people who say that Obama needs Biden, Richardson, Clark, etc.

[highplainsdem]

37. When you have a divided party you need a unity ticket. I'd have said the same thing if Clinton were

the nominee.

And there's nothing "insulting" about reality.

Polls back up what I've said about how she'd help the ticket. Includig the poll of delegates and superdelegates that I posted about yesterday. THEY know she'd help the ticket, whatever the Clinton haters at DU prefer to fantasize.

[ruggerson]

39. You're a far better person than I hpd

this poster needs to apologize to you. And you're being gracious in the face of blind ignorance and ugliness.

[Liberal_Stalwart71]

53. There is NO divided party. Most Dems are voting for Obama and he hasn't selected his running mate

Thank God it won't be Hillary. She and her husband only brings drama and discord. It's a new day and while the Clintons were good for the country, they and their supporters cannot seem to move on. Most of the time I believe that this is more about race and Obama being black. It's insulting to insinuate that he needs someone to "help" him. He's doing fine all by himself and hopefully Biden will be his running mate. Hillary doesn't do that for him. Sorry, but please understand that Hillary is less likely to do anything for Obama or the ticket.

[Name removed]

34. Deleted message

Message removed by moderator. Click here to review the message board rules.

[highplainsdem]

40. I supported Clinton and I realized well before the end of the primaries that we would need a unity

ticket to win.

I'm FOR party unity.

Both PUMAs and the Clinton-bashers are working AGAINST party unity.

And I don't need to change my avatar because my main concern is global warming, and I admire Al Gore for that reason. I wish he'd run for president this year. No one could have beaten him in the primaries.

I've never used a Clinton avatar.

I am still hoping for a unity ticket, after which I hope we'll have a good selection of avatars showing Obama and Clinton together.

[Liberal_Stalwart71]

51. You're not for Unity. You're for trying to strong arm the Democratic nominee into choosing

Hillary. By last count, most of her supporters now support Obama! That's UNITY! Either get on board or go vote for McSame. But continuing to insult the Democratic nominee by starting these divisive threads about how he's "weak" and can't win without "HIllary," is very insulting!! Please stop! You are creating discord by starting these threads!

There are much better candidates for VP other than Hillary who would be the WORST choice!

Let Obama choose who he wants and respect him and his decision!

[ruggerson]

35. Hey listen

gfy

[Rosa Luxemburg]

8. Zogby is wrong

[Captain Hilts]

10. How can you tell? Really. How?

The survey is a snapshot and might not be indicative of long-term trends.

But it might be. It's too early to say.

[AllentownJake]

22. Well

40% amongst college grads and 43% amongst City dwellers for one.

[pnwmom]

44. It's a poll of "likely voters" NOT registered voters.

That type of poll -- weighted in favor of those who voted in the past -- will always underestimate the support of a candidate like Obama who is bringing many new people into the system.

[catgirl]

12. I ignore tailored polls

[Aviation Pro]

14. "such as Democrats"

You've got to be fucking kidding me. What Democrat in his/her right mind would vote for Senator Angry Old Prick.

Oh, I know, Democrats driven by fear. In other words Republicants.

[highplainsdem]

16. Links to Zogby and Reuters articles on last month's poll, with Obama leading, for comparison:

http://www.zogby.com/news/ReadNews.dbm?ID=1529


http://uk.reuters.com/article/UKNews1/idUKN1535315320080716


Zogby showed Obama leading McCain, 47% to 40%, in their poll released July 16.

And as the page at that Zogby link shows, on June 18 Obama led McCain by 47% to 42%.

[jefferson_dem]

26. Your point? Here's a link to some of Zogby's primary polls, including the infamous CA numbers.

http://www.zogby.com/News/ReadNews.dbm?ID=1444

[Virginia Dare]

18. They lost me at "among Dems"...

I have no idea who they're polling but what total bullshit.

[ErinBerin84]

19. I don't think that Clinton is the ONLY VP who could give Obama a little bump

I just hope that once we do know the VP choice, there are not endless threads of "If ONLY it had been 'so and so' as VP, we would be doing SOOO much better!". We are not privy to the vetting or whether certain people even really want to be VP, so lets keep that in mind about the speculation.

[AllentownJake]

21. This poll does not make sense

Live in Cities

54%
43%
-11

Democrats

83%
74%
-9

He hasn't done anything since July to make the poll drop that much?

[Ganja Ninja]

29. It seems wacked out to me too.

Either they made a typo or they aren't reading their own polling right because this table shows McCain lead Obama last month too. Plus they all claim a 3 point marjin of error and this poll shows only a 1 point difference in change from July to August.

McCain: August/July 46%/47%
Obama: August/July 41%/40%
Not Sure: August/July 13%/13%

[mvd]

24. "Likely voter" polls are always suspect this far out

How do they know who will vote? That Gallup likely voter poll showed the opposite of their tracking poll. I also think Zogby has lost some credibility. I used to put him over Gallup, Survey USA, and the like - but no more.

[bdamomma]

27. this is just sick

are people that stupid? to go for this man.

[driver8]

28. I never thought they were stupid enough to vote for Dubya twice...

I was wrong.

Nothing would surprise me.

[OwnedByFerrets]

30. Negative campaigning works....

Amerikans say they hate it, but it sure works. What does that say about our electorate.

[Joanne98]

32. It sure does. When are we going to fight back?

[Edgewater_Joe]

33. Zogby's Been AWFUL This Year

They don't poll cell users, they assume voter turnout that ignores the primaries, they don't oversample for voters of color that'll be HUGE this year, and for only the 235,847,937,872th time, the ONE thing Obama does NOT want to do is to do ANYTHING that will inflate Repunk voter turnout -- which is exactly what would happen with Hillary on the ticket.

Plus, Obama STILL has a COMMANDING lead on the electoral map.

So the message is: take nothing for granted but stop the doom-and-gloom.

And for the love of God, STOP HAWKING HILLARY. Let. It. Go.

Unless you lurking Hillbots STILL want McSameAsBush to be the President.

[Amaya]

38. Maybe Americans deserve McCain

So many ignorant selfish people here (in America)

This is a harsh thing to say- sorry if I offended :hi:

[MasonJar]

41. I am sorry, but this is frightening. Just because he went on vacation

should not impact his numbers at all, especially this dramatically. His campaign and he are doing something that is not effective. They must get their act together. Any close race will be stolen and so will the congressional races in conjunction. These people on the Rovian track are evil We must NEVER forget that. He had better choose the right VP.

[Ghost of Tom Joad]

42. I was in this poll

and very surprised to hear the results. Not what I expected at all.

[Douglas Carpenter]

43. Obama still leads on Rasmussen 47/45 and CNN 46/43 and RCP AVERAGE=44.9/43

This is not particularly good news and does show that it is now high time for the Obama campaign to attack, attack and attack,

But it is not as desperate as some would think:

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/election_20082/2008_presidential_election/daily_presidential_tracking_poll

http://politicalticker.blogs.cnn.com/2008/08/20/cnn-poll-of-polls-obama-lead-cut-in-half-2

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/

[scheming daemons]

46. Thank God.... only 72 more hours until your OPs pushing for Clinton as VP become pointless

[Egnever]

49. Seconded

[TheDonkey]

47. McClown is killing him on the "tax" smears.

Obama really has a tough job of campaigning for tax increases.

[high density]

52. Except the tax smears are false

Obama is going to give people making $42k a year a larger tax cut than McCain would.

[MarjorieG]

48. McC helped Georgia start this, not reaping the benefits, though polls not to be true indicators