Ridge would be a dangerous VP choice, IMO

[Kurt_and_Hunter]

1) The resultant media storm of anti-choice outrage could be a net positive for McCain, disguising his own stances and burnishing his Indy cred. (The Republican party is largely a Confederate Grievance party at this point and the nut-right will ultimately turn out to vote against a black man, so McCain's base troubles are probably exaggerated.)

2) Ridge would help in PA. Probably not enough help, but any help is unhelpful.

3) Talking about Ridge's deficiencies as director of Homeland Security is still talking about Homeland Security. It's unhelpful terror-nostalgia. God knows GWOT SHOULD be a good issue for Dems, but it ain't, and that's just what it is.

In terms of actual votes I think Ridge is the best McCain could do, so I hope the religious-right will prevent it.

[BlooInBloo]

1. It has as many downsides for McDumbass as upsides, so no biggie.

[Mass]

2. I agree. It brings them more than it costs them.

[karynnj]

3. The fact that he admitted to changing terror codes for political reasons in 2004

should hurt for 3 reasons:

1) It was an immoral action - raising terror codes when there was no legitimate reason was terrorizing Americans in the cities affected. It raised their stress levels and hurt. It also cost those cities a huge amount of money - money that could have been used better.

2) It ties him to Bush.

3) Like many other things - it should have been illegal. Why was this never investigated by the Senate Committee that oversees honeland security? Well, the chair is ... Joe Leiberman. As it was done for political reasons - it was another way they cheated in that election.

[Kurt_and_Hunter]

9. There are issues that are right and issues that work.

Revisiting GWOT abuses is the later.

History will judge Ridge harshly, but a 90-day campaign sprint is a blur of imagery, not a reasoned argument.

The issue you raise is profound, but unfortunately is not simple. Should be simple, yes, but isn't.

The swing-vote public would just hear it as "Dems don't like Homeland Security." (And Ridge's inane counter that there were no attacks on his watch would be taken as profound.)

IMO

[karynnj]

36. Well what itf we call him Tom "Duct tape" Ridge

for his idiotic suggestions of what was needed in a home security kit.

The Dems could respond that there were no attacks when they were not raised for the next 2 years.

[Mass]

16. And? Seriously, when was the last time that what was right was important?

If Ridge is chosen, the story gets back to how McCain is a maverick that does not pander to his base. (how ludicrous this is does not matter, it will be the story).

He will lose few votes on the "pro-life" camp, but will get quite a few on the other side.

[BlooInBloo]

19. When was the last time he campaigned for office after that?

[Mass]

20. Who? Your question makes no sense as an answer to my post.

[zulchzulu]

4. Ridge admitting that the terror alerts were bullshit would skewer the Terror Card

I don't think the Repigs want to be reminded that the Terror Alerts made by Ridge were by his own admission a bunch of fear-mongering bullshit.

Paint Ridge as a phony stooge. Done.

[LisaM]

5. He gives more semblance of being normal than some of the other choices

though I had a hunch this a.m. that with all the sudden escalation of tensions in Russia, they were going to roll out Condi - their so-called Soviet expert.

[Kurt_and_Hunter]

13. Ridge is a war hero. People prefer that to "fancy" post-graduate degrees.

I suspect they already have focus groups showing that Condi wouldn't poach a single black vote and precious few women.

And... GASP!... she's not married.

That said, there would be something fitting about picking the one American citizen most responsible for 9/11. (That's what the 9/11 commission found before the report was scrubbed.) Kind of completes the circle.

[book_worm]

6. I agree.

[Cosmocat]

7. I posted this in the other string ...

I really don't forsee that Ridge will be enough to swing Pa ... Given that, he really does nothing FOR McCain ... Again, I think him floating Ridge is more a function of him admitting that after pouring a CRAPELOAD of money into ads in Pa, that he hasn't gotten a foothold, and that he pretty much has tossed in the towel here unless he picks Ridge ...

Meanwhile, Ridge does him little good anywhere else ...

IMO, McCain has to pick someone who helps him in a problem area - Ohio, Va or the the midwestern states where BO is performing well ...

_______________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________


The inital polls showed an unrealistic lead for BO here ...

The polls have settled in to put BO in the 5-6 point up range, which is pretty realistic ...

Franklin and Marshall on 8-10 had it 44-36 ...
Quinipiac had it 49-42 on July 31 ...
Strategic Vision had it 49-41 on July 31 ...
Rasmussin had it 47-42 on July 25 and 46-42 on June 24 ...

The state has a strong D governor in Rendell ... Has gone D in the last couple of decades ... Rich Santorum, third ranking senator and an R power, got bumped by Casey two years ago, with Santorum outspending Casey 2-1, and it wasn't even close ...

Finally ... Going back to the primary, BO has a big time ground game, and McCain has nothing other than the usual R worker bees - formidable, but not near what BO has ... And, Pa has a lot of big colleges that have been plummed heavily ... Overall, the Ds have added something astronomical, like 150,000, new voters to the rolls, and you know they were nearly all BO voters ...

IMO, Ridge would tighten things up, no doubt ... But, he far from represents a sure thing ... I still would put it a better than even money that BO would win ...

Frankly, I think him floating Ridge shows that after pouring A LOT of money into ads, that he hasn't gotten much of a foothold, and that he knows he probably can't win Pa without Ridge ...

Meanwhile, they could go with experience on steroids and they will keep us safe ... But, really, Ridge does nothing else for McCain ... Nothing outside of Pa, and I have a hard time thinking that his "pro choice" position really helps McCain any ...

I say, go for it ... It is a gambit, and not one with particularly good odds ... And, if we take care of business here in Pa like we should, it likely will be end game ...

[DinahMoeHum]

8. Tom Ridge - Mr. Uninspirational himself.

:evilgrin:

[Mass]

11. Because Bush and Cheney were inspirational?

And dont tell me that Gore was not either!

[DinahMoeHum]

37. Ridge did that silly shit with the "Terror Alerts". Yawn.

A douchebag all the way. All the better to put Bush around McCain's neck like an anchor.

:evilfrown:

[On the Road]

10. I Believe Ridge is the Best Choice, Too

Calm and reasonable. Less obvious personal baggage. Plus a governor from a swing state.

[Kurt_and_Hunter]

15. And why not put the only two combat veterans in the party on the ticket?

It would be ironic if chicken-hawk central ended up with two actual veterans.

The first all-Vietnam ticket. Oh goody!

[alcibiades_mystery]

12. Ridge is an idiot, and everyone in Pennsylvania knows it

His tenure at DHS was a disaster.

[BklynChick]

14. I worry about him as well.

[Clark2008]

17. Confederate Grievance Party??

So, I'm assuming there are no racists outside of the South?

:eyes:

[Kurt_and_Hunter]

21. I was being wry, but those grievances are not limited to the South

During the 1910s-1920s Confederate nostalgia metastasized throughout the north. BIRTH OF A NATION, GONE WITH THE WIND, the 1920s lynching epidemic, etc.

Today the grievance is more than regional... it's the national belief in a golden age of white contentment.

Reagan never lived in the south, but here's a key exchange from the debate that won him the presidency in 1980 where he describes that golden age:

MR. HILLIARD: What do you think is the nation's future as a multi-racial society?

MR. REAGAN: I believe in it. I am eternally optimistic, and I happen to believe that we've made great progress from the days when I was young and when this country didn't even know it had a racial problem.

Reagan's youth was actually one of the most racially divisive periods in our history, including the spectaculat race riots circa WWI that swept the midwest, and the high-point of lynchings.

[grantcart]

18. I think you are forgetting to factor in the fact that the Republican GOTV effort is basically

done by the Pro-life/evangelical forces that are organized by different 'faith communities' across the country.

Now we know that they are a lot less enthusiastic than they normally are because of their lack of enthusiasm for McCain. Ridge would put the nail in that coffin while somebody like Hucklebee would bring their numbers back.


It may be that he brings PA into contention and even flips it to McCain. If however it seriously undermined the GOTV effort across the board in other states I would still welcome his selection, because I think the EV will continue to go Obama's way and a reduced GOTV movement across the country would be beneficial to Democrats down ticket in 49 states.


The 'pro-life' community is one inch away from staying home en masse causing a landslide election for the Democrats because that would cement their future role as the primary organizing force in the Republican Party and the supremacy of their 'values' as basic Republican platform.

[Kurt_and_Hunter]

23. I agree, but I doubt it wll be quite as suppressed as predicted

The pugs have a way of coming home. They will not do as well as in 2004, but probably not as suppressed as we hope. Somewhere in between.

(I don't think McCain will win in almost any scenario, so this is all relative.)

[grantcart]

29. I agree but what is not relative is the damage down ticket

If he pisses off the evangelical foot soldiers I think the Republican Party is in for a shock and while I agree with you generally I come from a background that had a lot of evangelical exposure and there is one thing that is often overlooked about evangelicals: They are not only not racist they are proud of the fact that they are not racist. Many evangelicals would love to vote for an AA candidate if they could. You might have noticed that a lot of the CNN AA conservative pundits also double as ministers etc. If Obama can connect with them on faith and McCain were to appoint a pro choice guy like Ridge it could cause a significant reduction in the evangelical foot soldiers.

[Dawgs]

22. People don't vote for the VP, so no biggie.

:)

[bluestateguy]

24. The evangelical fundamentalists barely tolerate McCain as it is now

If someone like Sam Brownback, who is loved by the religious right, was the presidential nominee, they might tolerate a pro-choice VP pick. But this is not the case with McCain. McCain needs to shore up his base with Christian conservatives, not further aggravate them.

[Kurt_and_Hunter]

25. True as far as it goes, but he cannot possibly win with that base.

Ridge or Lieberman would be unconventional picks that would alienate the base, but if it has been determined (accurately) that the base cannot deliver victory in 2008 then it becomes a forced move. McCain can only win this thing in the suburbs, not the county-side. (IMO, which is certainly open to dispute.)

In tournament bridge when you find yourself in a bad contract you visualize the possible distribution of cards that would allow you to make the contract, even if that distribution is unlikely, and play on the assumption that's how they're distributed. You usually lose by more, but retain a hope of winning at all.

I am sure an unconventional pick is McCain's best move for himself. The question is whether the party calculates it would hurt too much down-ticket in a year the presidency is a lost cause, in which case they'd try to block it.

God knows what's going on behind the scenes.

[bluestateguy]

26. These people are not guaranteed voters

They can and will stay home if they feel alienated. Quite a few of them did just that in 2000, and then turned out in droves in 2004. They also provide campaigns will invaluable volunteer work in the final weeks of a campaign. Bush had that in 2004. I see little evidence so far that McCain is replicating that feat.

[Arkana]

27. If it helps him with indies it will KILL him with evangelicals

and I don't think making a former member of the Bush cabal your running mate is the best way to distance yourself from them.

[DefenseLawyer]

28. If he chooses Ridge we can kiss the Big Boy vote goodbye!

[DFLforever]

30. I think Ridge is just a bone being thrown to pro-choice Repub

women who are thinking of defecting to Obama.

The right barely tolerates McCain as it is. A pro-lifer VP on the ticket would finish their support.

McCain would love to be in a position to pick someone like Ridge and burnish his old 'maverick' credentials but he doesn't have the political clout with the GOP to pull it off.

[David Zephyr]

31. I agree.

.

[redstate_democrat]

32. Ridge was part of the BUSH Administration.

He is a BUshie and any Bushie on the ticket is only good for us. Plus, he manipulated terror alerts. "Using 9/11 as a fear card" to advance political agendas. He's prochoice, which is not good for any Repuke base. His business connections in the Middle East ain't good either. He is a DUD. I hope they pick him for those reasons.

[DU GrovelBot]

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[redstate_democrat]

34. McCain surrounds himself with nothing but lobbyists.

In June 2008, Ridge filed a lobbying disclosure form on his work for the government of Albania -- nearly two years late. Ridge signed a $480,000, one-year contract with Albania in September 2006, to help the country "develop an overall homeland defense strategy based on land, air and sea security." The contract identified Ridge as the "lead on strategic advice" for the Albanian government. Ridge's firm, Ridge Global, no longer works for Albania.

A spokesperson for the firm said Ridge didn't think he needed to disclose his Albania work. But the Justice Department, which maintains a database of lobbyists working with foreign entities, thought he did. The Department contacted Ridge's firm, "after a story about Ridge's work appeared in the press." According to a September 2006 Associated Press article, Ridge's "main priority" was "to help Albania meet its goal of joining NATO in 2008." Albania began accession talks with NATO in April 2008.

http://www.sourcewatch.org/index.php?title=Ridge_Global

Tom Ridge's consulting and lobbying firm, Ridge Global, lobbies Congress on behalf of foreign countries. Now, why do I find McCain's consideration of him for V.P. not at all shocking?

[Blue-Jay]

35. Ridge would be an "interesting" choice.

In looking up his history, he's been previously pro-choice, anti-SDI, anti-nuke proliferation...

I don't know quite what to make of the guy to be honest. During the Reagan years, it seems as though he frequently opposed the RNC (Reagan) on numerous occasions. Still... He acted like the usual Bush lapdog on issues of illegal wars and unconstitutional surveillance. Seems like he's a war-hawk AND a (former?) proponent of a few socially liberal issues.

My first reaction is to hate the guy because he was a member of the Bush administration, but that's just a visceral response to be honest. (NO, I'll never like him, so put that to rest before you respond)

Then again (aside from fighting the terra-ists), he'll probably confuse the RW base as much as he confuses me. He's more of a Con than a Lib, certainly, but I really don't have any idea how he'd "play in Peoria" for the usual assortment of the Republican Base. He'd probably be hated by the fundies, but would draw some support from the Security Pussies.

Wild Card, in other words.

[yardwork]

38. Ridge would be the end of McCain's campaign.

The Confederate Grievance party element is minor compared to the "pro-life" votes. They are huge. There are several tens of millions of evangelical Christians out there feeling like they've been played for fools by the Republicans, and the only thing keeping them holding on is the issue of abortion. If McCaint loses that edge, he loses really really big.

Ridge has nothing to offer that would come close to replacing the lost "pro-life" vote. I hope that McCaint picks him.

[OmahaBlueDog]

39. The problem with Ridge: he fails to wake the sleeping fundies

The fundies have traditionally not worked and played well with McSame, and a pro-choice veep won't help there. He has the same problem with Mittens, but at least he brings money and a shot of winning Michigan. A pick like Sam Brownback (used as an example -- he won't be picked) would fire up the fundies.

I just saw the new McSame "Maverick" ad, where the narrator talks about how we're worse off than we were 4 years ago; a distancing from Bush, and a swipe at the 2006 Congress.

Ridge is a decent pick for McSame. Pawlenty is a safer pick; he's young, a governor, and could help keep MN in play, and might also help Norm Coleman by association. I'm surprised Tancredo isn't getting any run -- he'd keep Colorado in play and fire up the anti-immigration base. However, I increasingly think he'll go with Sarah Palin:

1) She's young (44), and he needs youth
2) She's an anti-choice woman who has a bunch of kids and is raising a Down Syndrome child; fundies will adore her* (see 5)
3) She's a governor
4) I think she can be an effective attack dog
5) She opposes same-sex marriage, but vetoed a bill denying benefits to same-sex couples. Ordinarily, this would piss off fundies, but given (2), they'll overlook it.
6) The Hillary wedge; try to pick off disaffected women who wanted Hillary
7) She's pro-oil (hubby works for BP), and she'll be peddaled as an energy expert
8) Life member, NRA
9) Alaskan dovetails with the maverick image they want to sell

[davidpdx]

40. I have a feeling Ridge would be as bad as Cheney

Except I don't know if Ridge would actually shoot one of his buddies.

[depakid]

41. Paging Symbolman:

http://www.takebackthemedia.com/dtape1.html