Colorado: McCain Edges Ahead for the First Time

[Carrieyazel]

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/election_20082/2008_presidential_election/colorado/election_2008_colorado_presidential_election

This was a state that I thought Obama was looking really good in. He was up seven points (without leaners) in the last poll from Rasmussen. And McCain was never in the lead here. A toss-up right now. With a good late-election strategy, Obama should win the state, though.

[Hope And Change]

1. Another poll had Obama up with 4 points.

[mvd]

5. I think that was a Dem poll, but..

probably just as credible or more.

[JackORoses]

2. I guess we should just nominate Hillary then, huh?

:sarcasm:

[Hope And Change]

3. More from the poll...

The latest Rasmussen Reports telephone survey of Colorado voters shows John McCain attracting 47% of the vote while Barack Obama earns 45%. When “leaners” are included, it’s McCain by a single percentage point, 49% to 48%.

[mvd]

4. What in the world would cause such a big swing

I'm wondering more and more if Rasmussen is trying to make it make look good for McCain while throwing Obama a bone every now and then (like the VA poll.)

[ProSense]

16. Good question

Democratic Senate race and Governor:

Democrat Mark Udall's lead over Republican Bob Schaffer in Colorado’s race for the U.S. Senate has grown slightly over the past month. The latest Rasmussen Reports telephone survey in the state finds Udall ahead 47% to 41%.

When “leaners” are included, the Democrat has a 50% to 42% lead.

<...>

Colorado's Democratic Governor Bill Ritter earns good or excellent ratings from 49%, up from 41% last month. A quarter (24%) says he is doing a poor job.

Rasmussen's trend shows some wide swings

Date..............McCain.....Obama

08/13/2008.......47%.......45% (Obama -4, McCain +5)

07/21/2008.......42%.......49% (Obama +6, McCain +1)

06/17/2008.......41%.......43% (Obama -5, McCain -1)

05/19/2008.......42%.......48% (Obama +2, McCain -1)

04/16/2008.......43%.......46% (McCain -3)

03/17/2008.......46%.......46%


Weird patter.

[amandabeech]

19. Perhaps the mess in Georgia?

It seems as though I've read polls that international relations/war is where many moderate voters see Obama as wanting.

Hopefully, this will be over by November. If it isn't, we're in trouble.

[Alexander]

6. If Obama nets as much support as Kerry did, we win Colorado.

Colorado, 2000:

Bush - 50.75%

Gore - 42.39%

Nader - 5.25%

Bush beat Gore by 8.36%.

Colorado, 2004:

Bush - 50.73%

Kerry - 48.27%

Bush beat Kerry by 2.46%.

If Obama nets 6% like Kerry did, we win Colorado.

Good news for us.

[mtf80123]

7. Reason for this...

McCain is running attack ads right now on all of the local stations. Almost every single commercial break a McCain attack ad is displayed. I RARELY ever see Obama ads. And the Swift-Boaters just sunk $500,000 into advertising here.

I live in Denver. The Obama camp better start running some ads.

McBush has been here 4 or 5 times since the last time Obama was out here.

[Alexander]

8. I think and hope that when Obama's vacation is over...

He picks Clark, and the attacks and ads will come out full force.

[Kurt_and_Hunter]

15. That's good. Normally he wouldn't have to spend $$$ there.

[ccharles000]

9. I hope we can win Colorado.

[darius15]

10. This isn't great news

Up until recently, Obama was ahead in most Colorado polls by 4-5 percent. In the last few CO polls though, he's led by a few points in some, and others have it tied or McCain winning. All in all, I think Obama is still ahead in CO but he has to be careful not to lose this state.

[tridim]

11. He is looking good here. The poll is BS.

There ratio of Obama to McCain stickers and signs is about 1000:1 in Denver.

Actually I have yet to see a McCain bumper sticker, but I guess there is one or two out there that I haven't seen.

[rockymountaindem]

22. Not everybody lives in Denver n/t

[paulk]

12. recent Quinnipiac poll also had McCain up in CO

http://www.quinnipiac.edu/x4141.xml?ReleaseID=1195

[book_worm]

13. Oh my God! The sky is falling! One poll has it essentially tied

and people go crazy despite other polls that have Obama ahead. We will be having our convention there in a little more than a week, wait and see who will be leading after that.

[Kurt_and_Hunter]

14. States trend toward their typical voting behavior

States do change from red to blue and visa versa, but the best isolated predictor of any state is past performance. (Much as incumbency is the best single predictor of House races.)

Trends can be overcome, but it's like swimming upstream. As elections near voters tend to revert to historical behavior, so to swing a state you usually need to get a big lead and then hang on hard.

This goes both ways. The Republican candidate always looks close in a New Jersey poll at some point in the election, but then the population trends back toward their historical norm and Dems win comfortably.

[thatsrightimirish]

17. think about this

if this was 2004 and we saw a poll like this, we would probably be very happy. Colorado never votes blue in presidential elections. I thik those numbers really arent that bad.

[FrenchieCat]

18. Looks who's showing in this thread with the "bad" news.

Laughable....really.

As for the polls, they go up and they go down. The Corporate media and McCain have been lying non-stop about Obama for some time. I'm actually suprised that Obama's number are as good as is showing. Means we are going to win Colorado, period.

[totodeinhere]

20. It is no surprise to see it close in a red state like Colorado.

That's one reason why I support Richardson for VP. He could help us in Colorado as well as several other states in the region.

[Doctor_J]

21. Colorado is a stronghold of the Cabal News/hate radio morons

Sort of part of the deep south.