Indiana

[ccharles000]

PERHAPS NO STATE better embodies the difference in philosophy between the McCain and Obama campaigns than Indiana. For Obama, it represents a chance to rewrite the conventional wisdom and redraw the map: Indiana has gone Democratic just once in the past 15 elections, but Obama is serious about winning it, with intentions of opening as many as 30 field offices in the state. McCain, meanwhile, is acting as though he is calling a bluff; his campaign has not been advertising there, nor has it devoted any resources to the ground game. What gives each campaign such confidence about their prospects?

What McCain Has Going For Him

History. Not only has Indiana voted Democratic just once since World War II, but it has also voted more Republican than the nation as a whole in each of those elections. Indiana voters are moderate on pocketbook issues, but conservatives on cultural ones, and as of 2004, the Republicans had a 14-point advantage in party identification. Indiana has a Republican governor who will probably win re-election, and Republicans control 33 of Indiana's 50 seats in the State Senate. Indiana also has one of the nation's toughest voter ID laws, which has been upheld in the face of court challenges. In addition, its polls close early, by 6 PM local time, which tends to limit participation, especially among shift workers. Indiana is among the top states in the country in vehicle miles per capita, so issues like the gas tax could prove to be an effective wedge.

What Obama Has Going For Him

A lot of little things, which might add up to a big thing. Indiana has the most manufacturing-intensive economy in the country, with 18 percent of its jobs in the sector; Illinois-based unions are used to working its territory. Approximately 20-25 percent of the state is in the Chicago media market, and Obama overperford in the Northern portion of the state during the Democratic primaries. Indiana has several major colleges and universities, and an above-average number of young voters. Obama has outfundraised McCain in Indiana better than 2:1. The Bayh brand name remains extremely powerful in the state, and Evan Bayh can be an effective surrogate, whether or not he is Obama's vice president. Obama has a head start, having focused intensely on the state during the primaries, and essentially keeping his organization intact since then.

What To Watch For

Democrats have not made a serious effort to compete in Indiana since at least 1988, when Dan Quayle was George Bush's VP nominee and effective cordoned the state off to Michael Dukakis. And since the state has usually held a late primary, it had not gotten much attention during the nomination process either.

http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/2008/08/road-to-270-indiana.html

[Seen the light]

1. If my recent trip to Indiana is any indication, Indiana will go to McCain

I actually saw a number of McCain bumper stickers there. I haven't seen a single one in North Carolina, South Carolina, Tennessee, Arkansas, Missouri, Kentucky, or Illinois....but I saw something like TEN in Indiana.

[PVnRT]

2. Where?

I travel about 30 miles of rural Indiana each way to work, not to mention driving around a city that's not Bloomington or Gary...I've yet to see a single McCain anything.

[PVnRT]

3. McCain does have an ad running in our market, at least

The "Obama will raise your taxes and kill the economy! John McCain will make everything OK and add inches to your cock!" one.

[BlooInBloo]

4. Indiana isn't remotely close to going Obama at this point, as his own model shows.

[DemocracyInaction]

5. What makes Indiana different?

I can't figure it out. Why is it so hard core repuke compared to Ohio or PA or Iowa or Illinois or Wisconsin or Minnesota, etc.? I spent the first 45 years of my life in Iowa/Wisconsin so I know the midwest. What is the element in Indiana that is so different from these other states. I do think Obama is going to need a wing, a prayer and an act of God to take that place. Maybe the whole answer lies in what you described about their voting laws. It looks like it's meant to make sure no workers and no minorities vote.

[BlooInBloo]

6. No big cities.

[ccharles000]

7. ....

Indianapolis